Claim:
In early November 2024, a map circulated online depicting hypothetical presidential election results had only women cast ballots. Attribute rating / relevance score = 2.5 | Context of claim = 4
Before Election Day 2024, this map was constructed as an estimate of how women might vote.
Early November 2024 saw the spread of an online map purporting to depict what would have occurred if only women had cast ballots at the Nov. 5, 2024, U.S. presidential election. Most states colored blue indicate strong Democratic leanings within this scenario and Vice President Kamala Harris would have received 413 electoral votes while former President Donald Trump only got 122 electoral votes, according to this map’s projections.
(X user @admirephil) “Kamala should’ve looked like this,” one X user commented, while another pointed out how this situation demonstrated why women shouldn’t vote: making decisions based on emotional impulses instead.
Threads, Facebook and Imgur were among those using this map, representing election predictions rather than actual outcomes. Thus we have classified this claim as miscaptioned.
Origin of the Map
@politicalens first posted the map on TikTok Oct 16 2024 and since that day has earned 7.7 Million Views, 1.16 Million Likes and 101,000 Shares as of writing (this means well before Election Day on Nov 5 when results would be released).
The video’s description indicates it as being an estimate, rather than real election results; reading:
What will YOUR state (likely) vote like? We’ll see it come November!
“All sources for my analyses can be found on Linktree bio, including poll results and historical trends such as voter registration stats, turnout projections and current demographic surveys; my predictions may not always be 100% accurate but never will be.”
We have reached out to the original author of this map and will make adjustments as appropriate if we receive a response. We will update this article accordingly if a reply arrives.
How Women Voted Its According to AP VoteCast, Harris had an edge among female voters nationally with 53% winning compared to 46% for Trump; however, as of this writing The Associated Press had yet released state-by-state voting data showcasing gender voting data.
At least according to one exit poll conducted nationally by The Washington Post, 53% of women nationwide favored Harris over Trump; this trend could also be found in several swing states where Harris received greater support among female voters; Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada Pennsylvania Wisconsin being examples. Harris support among women ranged between 54-55% while Trump received 43-51% with only about half (49-50) choosing her over Trump as candidate respectively in Arizona being exception – more precisely 49% supporting Harris with 50% supporting Trump.
Similar Maps in 2016 and 2020
Following previous U.S. presidential elections, particular 2016 and 2020, maps circulated showing hypothetical outcomes if only women voted. Nate Silver created one such viral map showing hypothetical U.S. presidential election outcomes had only women cast ballots; his creation was “based on FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast,” suggesting Hillary Clinton would win over Donald Trump under this hypothetical scenario.
Silver created the map by altering Clinton’s polling margins by adding 10 percentage points per state based on her superior polling among women versus overall electorate – this resulted in her projected to win with 458 electoral votes to Trump’s 80 electoral votes.
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