Miami Warmth 2024-25 season preview: Jimmy Butler's future looms massive for East darkish horse

The 2024-25 NBA season is right here! We’re breaking down the most important questions, best- and worst-case eventualities, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 groups. Get pleasure from!

MIAMI HEAT

2023-24 end

Offseason strikes

• Additions: Alec Burks, Nassir Little, Kel’el Ware, Pelle Larsson

• Subtractions: Caleb Martin, Delon Wright, Patty Mills, Orlando Robinson

• Complete roster

The Massive Query: Is there a path to a contention-caliber offense?

Since Jimmy Butler’s arrival, the Warmth have made 5 straight playoff appearances and two journeys to the NBA Finals. The mix of Butler’s two-way brilliance, Bam Adebayo’s evolution into one of the NBA’s most complete players and coach Erik Spoelstra’s reward for reworking any roster right into a top-10 protection establishes a excessive flooring. And when Butler’s play takes a turn toward the transcendent …

… the ceiling ain’t half-bad, both.

Reaching it isn’t straightforward, although. Final season, the Warmth completed bottom-10 in offensive score, effective field-goal percentage, how ceaselessly they attempted shots at the rim, workforce shooting percentage on at-rim tries, factors in the paint, offensive effectivity in “clutch” situations and scoring effectivity in transition, amongst different classes.

“We have to enhance,” Spoelstra told reporters. “We have to innovate.”

And whereas Spo and the gang definitely gained’t shrink from that problem …

… a league-average-at-best assault seemingly gained’t be sufficient to outpace the East’s greatest groups.

“Spo is at all times speaking about being a top-five protection and a top-five offense,” Butler told reporters. ”That’s the components for achievement.”

The recipe begins with better health, most notably for Butler — who, Playoff Paul Bunyan act apart, has but to play 65 video games in a season in Miami, has missed a median of 20 video games per 12 months and simply turned 35. (In a associated story, he entered camp and not using a contract extension; in one other associated story, he didn’t bring his bits to media day.)

Accidents restricted Butler, Adebayo and Tyler Herro to only 527 minutes together final season and to just 118 minutes with trade-deadline acquisition Terry Rozier (who quietly averaged 18-4-4 and shot 42% from deep after the All-Star break). In principle, extra lineups that includes a number of shot-creators and on-ball/spot-up threats ought to have extra pathways to producing attractiveness — notably if Herro’s actually working more off the ball and if Spoelstra actually shifts the offense a bit from iso-heavy play towards more fluid, faster-moving sets.

“I’m undoubtedly intentional about seeing what Terry, Tyler, Jimmy [and] Bam appears to be like like,” Spoelstra told reporters.

He’ll additionally should be intentional about how he fills the frontcourt emptiness left by Martin. Will he look to Haywood Highsmith, re-signed on a two-year, $11 million deal? The 6-foot-5 27-year-old with the 7-foot wingspan might show a discount, if final 12 months’s capturing — 42% on nook 3s (albeit on just 84 attempts) — can carry over in a bigger function.

There’s additionally third-year ahead Nikola Jović, who may provide probably the most utility as a shooter, complementary playmaker and offensive connector:

After cracking the rotation in late December, the 20-year-old Serbian averaged eight factors, 4 rebounds and just below two assists in 20.2 minutes per sport, capturing 39.7% from 3-point vary on practically 4 makes an attempt an evening. Miami outscored opponents by 9.1 points-per-100 when Jović shared the floor with Butler and Adebayo; that margin got here in simply 407 minutes, nevertheless it deserves extra exploration.

Whether or not it’s Highsmith, Jović, Jaime Jaquez Jr. or another person who strains up subsequent to Adebayo, it could possibly be the Warmth’s heart who helps the offense take the most important step ahead … particularly if he retains taking a step again.

After capturing 68 3-pointers by way of his first six seasons, Adebayo went 17-for-52 from deep in 2023-24, then shot 9 from the FIBA line throughout Crew USA’s run to gold in Paris. He goals to fire at least 100 triples this season.

No person expects Bam to show into Kristaps Porziņģis in a single day. But when his outward migration continues on an upward trajectory, it could possibly be a large boon for Miami’s often-congested offense, with higher half-court spacing which means wider driving lanes and a livelier drive-and-kick sport.

“Hopefully, that is an offense that shall be on all cylinders within the second half of the season,” Spoelstra said.

If it’s not — in the event that they as soon as once more battle mightily to attain, flailing to remain above the play-in fray, with Butler’s $52.4 million player option looming — then the Warmth may discover themselves dealing with existential questions. Not about flooring or ceilings, however about what precisely they’re even attempting to construct anymore.

Finest-case situation

A motivated Butler turns in his healthiest and most efficient season in a Warmth uniform, incomes his first All-NBA First Crew choice within the course of. Adebayo makes good on his promise to launch extra 3s, decreasing the variety of issues he can’t do on a basketball courtroom to … zero? Spoelstra finds the appropriate mix of capturing, playmaking and protection within the first 5, and whoever winds up on the surface wanting in — I’m pondering Jaquez — makes a powerful push for Sixth Man of the 12 months. We glance up in March and are surprised to appreciate that Miami’s en path to a top-four seed and poised for an additional deep postseason run.

If all the things falls aside

Butler, Herro and Rozier proceed to battle with accidents, leaving Adebayo overtaxed attempting to shoulder a famous person’s shot-creation workload and plug each leak on protection. The kids sputter below the intense lights, and with monetary flexibility and draft-pick belongings scarce, there’s no cavalry on the best way. The Warmth enter one other spring watching groups they as soon as vanquished transfer previous them within the postseason and the league’s pecking order, and are pressured to face a future full of inauspicious selections.

Fantasy spin

As one of many prime defenders within the league, Adebayo is a dependable supply of factors, boards and steals who shall be off draft boards by the fourth spherical. If he continues launching 3s, it’s going to be a compelling improvement for his fantasy profile.

Butler’s ADP is rising from a late-to-mid fourth-round choose — regardless of his sketchy contract scenario. Nonetheless, well being has been a difficulty, as Jimmy Buckets has not performed over 65 video games because the 2016-17 season. Herro has his share of damage issues, too, and has underperformed relative to his seventh-round ADP. Equally, Rozier is searching for a bounce-back marketing campaign after his fantasy manufacturing soured as soon as he was dealt to Miami final 12 months.

Kel’el Ware is a sleeper I have been concentrating on late in drafts as a result of he is appeared nice within the preseason and his play jogs my memory of a mixture of LaMarcus Aldridge and Dereck Full of life II. Ware is the innovation that Coach Spo speaks about. — Dan Titus

2024-25 schedule

Slight bumps for the offense and in general well being ought to get Miami previous this quantity. How a lot additional it’ll get than that, although, very a lot stays an open query.