The dialog: Are the younger Thunder able to storm by means of the West and convey a title to OKC?

You would possibly say that the Oklahoma City Thunder arrived forward of schedule final season, however, to normal supervisor Sam Presti, they nonetheless have to earn their arrival and there has never been a schedule. Let’s simply say, then, that the 17-game soar the Thunder made within the standings was much more exceptional than the 16-game soar they made the earlier season. Now, the staff that completed first within the Western Convention (and misplaced a tightly contested second-round sequence) is armed with reinforcements. Josh Giddey wasn’t going to be joyful in a sixth-man position, so he is out. In are Alex Caruso, who will play any position he is requested at 1000% depth, and Isaiah Hartenstein, who addresses Oklahoma Metropolis’s largest weak point — and I do not imply rebounding.

To be clear, Hartenstein will assist OKC on the glass, and a few additional probabilities undoubtedly would have turn out to be useful in opposition to the Dallas Mavericks. If there was one purpose the Thunder misplaced that sequence, although, it was that they had been uncovered offensively. They misplaced their circulation, slowed their tempo and allowed Dallas to dictate phrases. Hartenstein, who is instantly their greatest screener and maybe their greatest passer, is the form of participant who can forestall this from taking place once more. OKC will nonetheless play 5-out with Hartenstein on some possessions, however, usually talking, the offense will not look the identical when he is on the market. It is going to be much less drive-and-kick-heavy, much less reliant on creating benefits off the dribble and, crucially, much less predictable.

Caruso matches this type of play, too. Consider him because the Thunder’s model of Derrick White, albeit with a much less dependable jumper. On condition that each he and Hartenstein are elite defenders — Caruso is already “annoying as hell” to deal with in practice, per franchise participant Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — it’s straightforward to pencil in OKC as the favourite out West. Improvement is not linear, however in case you assume there shall be some pure development from Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, it isn’t even significantly tough to think about them successful the entire rattling factor. In the present day, to foretell that they will be the 2025 champions is not half as daring because it was to foretell a 17-game soar this time final yr. 

The state of play

Final yr: Gilgeous-Alexander was the MVP runner-up, Holmgren was the ROY runner-up and Daigneault gained COY in a landslide. Within the common season, the eventual-champion Celtics had been the one staff to prime OKC’s 57-25 file or its plus-7.3 level differential. The Thunder’s fourth-ranked protection held up nicely within the playoffs, however their third-ranked offense received a bit stagnant within the second spherical in opposition to Dallas. They nearly overcame this, solely to drop Recreation 6 by one level on the highway after SGA fouled P.J. Washington within the nook within the last seconds. 

The offseason: In June, OKC swapped Giddey for Caruso, then drafted a possible Giddey substitute (Nikola Topic) with the No. 12 decide. It additionally despatched New York 5 second-round picks for the No. 27 decide (Dillon Jones) and, with some extra maneuvering, nabbed the No. 38 decide (Ajay Mitchell). It should be extremely tough for any draftee to crack this rotation for some time, although, partly as a result of, in July, the Thunder signed Hartenstein to a deal they knew the Knicks could not match, then re-signed Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins on team-friendly offers.

Greatest case for 2024-25: Holmgren and Williams be part of SGA within the All-Star Recreation and several other distinguished podcasters make the case that Hartenstein — who averages six assists and anchors the best defense in NBA history — deserves a spot, too; with the rebounding drawback solved, the Thunder’s lack of obvious points turns into suspicious in itself, resulting in a nationwide dialog about how they may deal with adversity within the playoffs, a query they emphatically reply by storming by means of the Western Convention gauntlet with relative ease and successful the title in what is instantly lauded as essentially the most fascinating Finals since 2016. 

Worst case 2024-25: The Thunder stay elite defensively, however the brand new offense by no means fairly clicks; when Presti elects to face pat on the commerce deadline, he’s accused of each making rash strikes to chase a championship too early (by buying Hartenstein and Caruso the earlier summer time) and never appearing with sufficient urgency (by failing to plug the suitable holes midseason), criticisms that he addresses throughout a seven-hour press convention following a first-round loss within the 4 vs. 5 sequence.

The dialog

Thunder believer: How do different groups’ executives really feel once they take a look at this roster, salary-cap scenario and stockpile of draft picks? I genuinely cannot recall any staff within the historical past of the NBA ever being this good and this well-positioned for the longer term on the identical time. Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso are among the many most Thunder-y gamers possible, and Sam Presti did not even have to surrender any picks to get them. The vibe is paying homage to when Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden had been in OKC and the chances appeared limitless, however this staff is method higher! Have a look at the depth of expertise. Have a look at the flexibility. I am in awe.

Thunder skeptic: Personally, I would wait till this model of the Thunder win a playoff sequence in opposition to one good staff — the Zion-less Pelicans do not depend, clearly — earlier than declaring them higher than the Durant-Westbrook-Harden group that went to the Finals. Do not you are feeling such as you (and all the opposite Presti stans on the market) is likely to be a tad over-exuberant? There’s quite a bit to be enthusiastic about, do not get me unsuitable, however Presti himself is all the time preaching persistence. This staff’s greatest gamers are 26, 23 and 22. Why should we be in a rush to anoint them?

Thunder believer: Let me guess, you had been one of many individuals who thought all us “Presti stans” had been too excessive on OKC final yr, proper? It turned out we had been all too low, and that ought to be instructive for you: “I need to see them show it first” isn’t just a lazy take, it is a silly one. There is no such thing as a advantage in being tremendous late to the social gathering since you’re frightened of being barely early. Sure, this staff’s core is younger, however this staff’s core can be extremely good, proper now, on each ends. The Thunder do not play a helter-skelter model of basketball, and it doesn’t require some wild leap of religion to imagine they will win the title. The 2023-24 season made that blindingly apparent, which is why Presti made the precise kind of strikes {that a} contender ought to.

Thunder skeptic: I am not saying it is unhealthy to imagine within the Thunder! I am not even essentially saying that Presti has executed something unsuitable. Go forward and make your optimistic predictions. Simply do not assume that that is going to be a clean upward trajectory. Please keep in mind the Durant-Westbrook-Harden staff that you just introduced up! Please keep in mind that it felt prefer it ought to be a dynasty, like a minimum of one title was inevitable. In fact expectations ought to be excessive for this new technology, however the hype is getting uncontrolled. There may very well be some regression coming for a number of of the important thing guys. There may very well be problem integrating one or each of the brand new guys. All people’s increase the Thunder proper now, and all people’s going to thrill in tearing them down if/once they stumble.

Thunder believer: Thanks for attempting to guard the Thunder from the expectations that they’ve earned, however it is a bit patronizing. I guarantee you they do not need individuals to tamp down their enthusiasm or no matter it’s you need me to do right here. What I like about them, in reality, is that they do not appear to care what individuals exterior of the group assume. From Presti to Mark Daigneault to, like, Cason Wallace, who had one of the mature, businesslike rookie seasons I’ve ever seen, they’re all about particular person participant improvement, forging an identification as a staff and piling up wins as a byproduct of the work they do daily.

Thunder skeptic: Ugh, I did not understand you’d been absolutely indoctrinated by Thunder U. All I am attempting to say is that A) successful is difficult, particularly for younger groups, and B) I’ve some questions on this explicit younger staff. One fairly huge query: Uh, who’s beginning? A associated query: Can Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren play collectively?

Thunder believer: I am really a professor at Thunder U, thanks very a lot. And as such, I would like to reply your hard-hitting questions. In the case of the beginning lineup, they’re conserving their choices open for now. Possibly they begin one huge, perhaps they begin two bigs. Personally, I would love for this to be a fluid, matchup-based scenario. The advantage of this roster — and the factor that separates it from final yr’s — is that it’s constructed to unravel an array of various issues. Daigneault has all the time experimented with lineups, however the infusion of expertise this summer time permits him to experiment with types. That is going to be a season of discovery, and that begins with getting all people comfy with Chet-at-the-4 lineups, no matter whether or not or not the Thunder begin video games that method. As in your second query, sure, they will clearly play collectively. Holmgren is hardly a standard 5, and Hartenstein will not be some type of post-up dinosaur, both. Prepare for some sick high-low passes.

Thunder skeptic: Other than that “season of discovery” mumbo jumbo, it appears we’re lastly speaking about basketball — hooray! I do not perceive why you assume it is “apparent” that the 2 bigs will work nicely collectively, although. OKC had an elite offense final yr, largely due to their 5-out spacing. Holmgren will not have the identical matchup benefits on the 4 that he did on the 5. After the Dallas sequence, I believed, Holmgren must be a greater stretch 5 (i.e. velocity up his launch, shoot from even deeper), and I did not for one second assume, Chet must be a 4. Earlier than he’d even performed an NBA sport, the Thunder established themselves because the league’s preeminent drive-and-kick staff. It is honest to say that the driving lanes aren’t going to be the identical with Hartenstein within the paint, is not it? Am I allowed to assume that Mikal Bridges would have been a greater goal, or am I simply purported to bow to essentially the most sensible, forward-thinking entrance workplace of all-time?

Thunder believer: Holmgren nonetheless must make these enhancements, and I guess he’ll. He may even, nevertheless, continue to grow in all types of different methods, together with as an off-the-dribble creator. Positions are antiquated these days, so I form of remorse even referring to “Chet-at-the-4 lineups” earlier. With Hartenstein enjoying “level middle” or no matter you need to name it when a really tall particular person operates as a hub, it is going to grow to be extra obvious that Holmgren is simply an all-around expert basketball participant. You may see him reduce like he is by no means reduce earlier than! That is the impact that Hartenstein — and, to some extent, Caruso, a particularly underrated offensive participant — may have on the entire staff. It is not going to be drive-and-kick barrage anymore, since we noticed the boundaries of that method in opposition to the Mavericks. It will be a barrage of assorted actions all around the court docket, and the protection will not know what’s coming. Bridges is a greater participant than Hartenstein in a vacuum, and I would not have been against buying and selling a bunch of picks for him, however he would not have expanded the menu on offense this fashion.

Thunder skeptic: Possibly the dimensions of the menu wasn’t the issue, although. Possibly all Presti wanted to do was enhance a few substances. The Mavericks sequence was a coin flip, however it looks as if his takeaway was that the staff wanted extra dimension, extra motion and rather more passing. I admit that he may very nicely be confirmed proper, and all of this might come collectively fantastically, however I would really feel higher concerning the two bigs if the spacing round them had been pristine. Caruso is a greater shooter than Josh Giddey, however that is not saying a lot. You noticed how Dallas handled Dort. SGA has by no means been an superior catch-and-shoot man. Isaiah Joe is the one motion shooter on the roster. I’ve little question that this staff will win a ton of regular-season video games once more, however I am simply as certain that, within the playoffs, opponents will pack the paint once more.