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Whereas there are various completely different accounts of who first got here up with the phrase, there isn’t any scarcity of people that imagine that “your finest means is your availability.” That is very true in fantasy basketball, as a participant who boasts elite per-game manufacturing will not be value lots if he is persistently on the shelf as a consequence of damage. The 2024-25 season is a “particular” one in that it comes on the heels of an Olympic yr.
So, is the longer participant calendar of “season-Olympics-season” one thing fantasy managers ought to contemplate when drafting their groups? Truthfully, that relies upon extra on the participant in query slightly than assuming that each participant who participated in Paris is at heightened danger of lacking time. For this column, I’ve appeared again on the Rio (2016) and Tokyo (2020) Olympic Video games to see if something caught out concerning participant manufacturing and availability.
High 200 Rankings credit score: Basketball Monster
2016 Rio Olympics
Thirty-seven gamers within the Rio Olympics noticed motion within the NBA the season prior, with seven enjoying 60 video games or much less in 2015-16. The very best-profile participant of the six concerning fantasy worth was Kyrie Irving, who appeared in 53 video games for the Cavaliers. The opposite six have been Joffrey Lauvergne (France), Manu Ginobili (Argentina), Cristiano Felicio, Marcelo Huertas, Nene (Brazil), and Jonas Valanciunas (Lithuania). Concerning per-game fantasy worth, Irving’s 2015-16 season ranked simply outdoors the highest 50 in 9-cat codecs and the highest 100 in totals. However Kyrie’s case is one during which it is important to think about when the video games have been missed as a substitute of merely utilizing the absences as a motive to drop him on draft boards.
Injured throughout Recreation 1 of the 2015 NBA Finals and subsequently present process surgical procedure to restore a fractured left knee cap, Irving didn’t make his 2015-16 debut till December 20. From that time onward, he solely missed 5 video games, the final being Cleveland’s regular-season finale towards Detroit. In 2016-17, Irving appeared in 72 video games and was a high 25 fantasy participant in each per-game and complete worth. Valanciunas noticed probably the most NBA motion in 2016-17 of the opposite six gamers talked about, showing in 80 video games and ending as a high 70 fantasy participant (per sport and totals). Ginobili, within the twilight of his Corridor of Fame profession, performed 69 video games in 2016-17 and completed outdoors the highest 175 in per-game worth, as did Nene (67 video games), Felicio (66), and Lauvergne (70). As for Huertas, he solely appeared in 23 video games after enjoying 53 the season prior and was even much less of a consider fantasy basketball than that quartet.
In complete, 29 of the 37 Rio Olympians appeared in at the least 65 video games the next NBA season, with Valanciunas, Patty Mills and Joe Ingles (Australia), Rudy Gobert (France), DeAndre Jordan (USA), and Bojan Bogdanovic (Croatia) enjoying at the least 80. Concerning the US, solely Kevin Durant (62 video games) and Kyle Lowry (60) didn’t play at the least 70 video games in the course of the 2016-17 marketing campaign. Twenty of the 37 have been high 200 fantasy gamers in each the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons, with Irving and Ginobili being the one ones to have a season of fewer than 60 video games performed (2015-16 for each).
2020 Tokyo Olympics
The 2020 Olympics are a completely completely different matter, as they have been performed in 2021 as a result of COVID-19 pandemic. Concerning the NBA, the 2020-21 common season was shortened to 72 video games as a result of the earlier season was not accomplished till August. In consequence, it didn’t take a lot for a participant to fail to hit 60 video games, a lot much less the 65-game threshold that so many fantasy managers maintain pricey. Forty-seven Olympians performed within the NBA in the course of the 2020-21 season, with solely 16 showing in at the least 60 video games. Gobert led the best way and performed 71 of a doable 72 for the Jazz.
With the NBA returning to a “regular” calendar/schedule for the 2021-22 marketing campaign, it was honest to marvel if the Tokyo Olympics would affect participant availability. Putting any blame on a two-week occasion could be extremely unfair, particularly contemplating the scheduling havoc throughout these two seasons. However it’s attention-grabbing that of the 47 who performed in Tokyo, 19 performed 60 video games or extra in the course of the 2021-22 marketing campaign. Amongst that group have been Gobert (66 video games), Evan Fournier (France; 80), Devin Booker (USA; 68), Keldon Johnson (USA; 75), and Jayson Tatum (USA; 76).
Concerning 9-cat per-game worth, Tatum had the most effective fantasy season of any Olympian who performed in Tokyo, ending as a high 5 participant. Kevin Durant (55 video games) completed the 2021-22 season simply outdoors of first-round worth for traditional, 12-team leagues, whereas Booker was a high 20 participant. Amongst those that represented different nations, Gobert completed simply inside the highest 25, whereas Luka Doncic (65; Slovenia) was a number of spots behind the then-Jazz middle. If one have been to punt turnovers, Doncic was almost a first-round participant in 12-team leagues.
The Tokyo Olympics and their affect on fantasy basketball have been far trickier to guage due to the scheduling modifications compelled by COVID-19. The lower in availability was doubtless extra in regards to the two seasons prior, starting with the four-month hiatus and Orlando “bubble,” than athletes spending two-plus weeks in relative isolation representing their respective nations. So, Tokyo is not the most effective measurement to make use of when contemplating the potential affect enjoying in Paris may have on gamers in 2024-25.
2024 Paris Olympics
Fifty-four gamers in Paris this summer season performed within the NBA in the course of the 2023-24 season, with 30 ending as high 200 fantasy gamers. Availability-wise, 19 appeared in 60 video games or fewer, some as a consequence of damage, whereas others weren’t locks to be of their respective workforce’s rotation on a nightly foundation.
The very best-profile of these 19 was Joel Embiid, whose knee damage in late January sidelined him till April 2. The 2023 NBA MVP solely performed 39 video games for the 76ers final season and didn’t look wholesome in the course of the workforce’s first-round playoff collection towards the Knicks. There have been additionally questions concerning his health in the course of the Olympics, however Embiid made it by with a clear invoice of well being and a gold medal. Given his total damage historical past, it is comprehensible that some fantasy managers who land a top-5 choose will actively keep away from drafting Embiid.
One other Olympian who performed fewer than 60 video games final season was Jamal Murray (Canada), who appeared in 59 for the Nuggets. His most extended interval on the sideline occurred in November, with the purpose guard lacking 11 video games (and two extra after his preliminary return on November 29) as a consequence of a hamstring damage. The ankle damage in March that sidelined Murray for seven video games could also be extra regarding from a timing standpoint. Whereas he didn’t miss one other sport after returning on April 6, the Nuggets guard didn’t look to be at his finest in the course of the Paris Olympics. Even with exterior issues concerning Murray’s well being, that didn’t stop the Nuggets from signing him to a profitable extension in September.
Additionally of observe concerning the provision of 2024 Olympians final season, 22 performed at the least 70 video games. Three, Josh Giddey (Australia; 80), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Canada; 75), and Lu Dort (Canada; 79), have been members of the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, with the previous being traded to the Bulls this summer season. Among the many different 19 on that checklist have been Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greece; 73 video games), Victor Wembanyama (France; 71), Anthony Davis (USA; 76), and LeBron James (USA; 71).
Whereas LeBron could also be approaching 40 years, his ADP has held regular in comparison with the 2023-24 season. Along with Embiid and Murray, there could possibly be some concern for Tyrese Haliburton, who handled a hamstring damage in the course of the season, doubtless returning too early, and one other leg difficulty in the course of the Olympics. He took on his common position in Indiana’s preseason opener on Tuesday, however it is going to be attention-grabbing to see how fantasy managers strategy Haliburton in drafts.
Conclusion
So, what conclusion may be made out of the final two Olympic males’s basketball competitions and their impacts on fantasy basketball? Whereas the time without work could also be welcomed, there does not seem like a lot proof to recommend that enjoying impacts availability. As everyone knows, accidents occur whether or not a participant is “well-rested” or not. A extra significant predictor could be a participant making it clear that he is prioritizing being healthy for the postseason over particular person awards that solely contemplate the common season and their total damage historical past.
