NFL betting: Loza's and Dopp's Week 4 props that pop

We would have began off gradual, however Daniel Dopp and I’ve picked up steam because the NFL season has rounded into kind.

Regardless of the curve balls thrown at bettors in Week 3, 5 of our six props popped! We’ll intention to maintain that momentum going into Week 4, making an attempt to use accidents, inclement climate and some underwhelming matchups.

Let’s get to it! — Liz Loza

All odds as of publication time. For the newest odds, go to ESPN BET.

Quarterback props

Justin Fields OVER 174.5 passing yards (-135)

Loza: Fields is, in no way, identified for his passing manufacturing, neither is his offensive coordinator. Nonetheless, the previous Bear is coming off of his finest passing complete of the younger season (245 yards). His completion proportion, yards per try and variety of throws over 20 yards have climbed since Week 1, demonstrating a rising consolation in his new squad.

He figures to maintain the momentum rolling in Week 4, whereas profiting from a plus matchup. The Indianapolis Colts will likely be with out not solely beginning DE Kwity Paye, but in addition slot nook Kenny Moore. That ought to preserve some stress off of Fields and open issues up for Calvin Austin III, who occurred to be on the receiving finish of Fields’ lone passing rating in Week 3. Whereas the unfold on this recreation is not precisely indicating a factors bonanza, Fields averaged 197 passing yards per recreation in 2023. He figures to submit related numbers Sunday.

Kyler Murray 275+ passing + speeding yards (Even)

Dopp: I’ll contact on why Marvin Harrison Jr. is in a smash spot in Week 4, however I am his QB to smash as properly! Be at liberty to take the entire “Commanders are unhealthy at stopping WRs” evaluation beneath on MHJ and apply it to this a part of the column as properly. Washington may be had by the air, and though the Commanders have not given up a ton of speeding yards to QBs this 12 months, they have not actually performed any speeding quarterbacks thus far. Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow and Daniel Jones mixed for less than 57 speeding yards towards the Commanders, however none of these guys has the power that Murray has on the bottom.

Murray has rushed for not less than 45 yards in all three video games this season and will be capable of feast towards this secondary by the air. Realizing that each Baker and Burrow bested this mark, even with minimal speeding, provides me a ton of confidence in Murray. This recreation has an implied complete of 48.5, the best on the Week 4 slate. I do not assume we get there except Kyler is doing Kyler issues. Given his speeding and passing potential, in addition to the comfortable protection of Washington and the best complete of the week, I am assured in taking him to beat the quantity right here.

Operating again props

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Is Zack Moss a must-start RB towards the Panthers?

Mike Clay explains why Zack Moss could possibly be a “lineup lock” in Week 4 towards the Panthers.

Zack Moss OVER 49.5 speeding yards (-135), anytime TD (-135)

Loza: Moss seems to have edged out Chase Brown because the Cincinnati Bengals‘ RB1. He has averaged 14 touches per recreation and is coming off of his finest speeding output (58 yards) of the season. He additionally ranks seventh on the place in crimson zone carries (11), with three of these totes occurring on the purpose line (RB9).

These high-value alternatives solely determine to extend as Cincinnati’s offense will get more healthy and rounds into kind. The crew figures to hit a stride given this weekend’s matchup at Carolina. The Panthers have allowed the sixth-most speeding yards to opposing RBs (374 speeding yards, 4.7 YPC) and the third-highest variety of speeding scores to the place (4). With the Bengals as 4.5-point favorites, Moss ought to handle upwards of 55 speeding yards whereas discovering the top zone, making this a profitable construct for Week 4.

Vast receiver props

Marvin Harrison Jr. OVER 69.5 receiving yards (-130), Anytime TD (-120)

Dopp: Just a few issues have turn into irrefutable truths in soccer by the primary three weeks of the season. One, prime tier tight ends have principally stunk this 12 months. Two, Brandon Aubrey has overtaken Justin Tucker as the very best deep kicker in soccer. And three, the Commanders protection is the real-world equal of Charmin Extremely Tender. It is that final one we’ll house in on with this prop.

This Washington secondary has allowed not less than 80 receiving yards to a large receiver in every of its first three video games. First to Chris Godwin, who put up eight catches for 83 yards and a TD, then to Malik Nabers, who confirmed out with 127 yards and a TD, and lastly to Ja’Marr Chase, who toasted it for 118 yards and two TDs. Enter Marvin Harrison Jr., who’s in a major place to comply with swimsuit right here in Week 4.

The Commanders have given up the third-most yards to large receivers and a league-worst 9 touchdowns to the place. This receiving recreation runs by MHJ, and with Trey McBride dominated out due to a concussion, the goal tree simply obtained extra condensed. I am anticipating one other large WR recreation, which is why I am taking OVER 69.5 receiving yards as a solo guess, and I am additionally making a mini parlay of OVER 69.5 with an anytime TD at +163.

Tyreek Hill OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-135)

Loza: Hill’s receiving totals have sagged in back-to-back efforts. The QB change has, undeniably, destroyed Hill’s ceiling. Nevertheless, the 30-year-old posted not less than 50 receiving yards in two of the 4 video games through which Tua Tagovailoa was sidelined in the course of the 2023 season.

Hill’s odds of bouncing again are bettered by the absence of Chidobe Awuzie. Admittedly, L’Jarius Sneed nonetheless poses a reputable menace. Nonetheless, Hill logged not less than 60 receiving yards in each of the outings through which he confronted Sneed final 12 months. It will not be simple, however backing a participant as dynamic as Hill makes good sense (and cents).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-105)

Dopp: The Detroit Lions have been unbelievable towards RBs by the primary three video games — and far lower than unbelievable at stopping WRs this season. As a lot as I really like my Lions, they’ve had some critical points shutting down opposing groups’ move catchers. So let’s begin there.

The Lions have given up 609 yards to WRs this season, essentially the most within the NFL. They’ve additionally given up the second-most completions within the slot to WRs this 12 months, which is the place JSN has aligned as a rule on this Ryan Grubb-led offense. Lastly, the Lions have allowed 5 completely different gamers to his this mark in simply three video games: Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Johnson, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson. And to prime all of it off, Smith-Njigba has emerged because the clear No. 2 move catcher on this offense. He has run the identical variety of routes as DK Metcalf, has solely three fewer targets than DK and showcased what he can do in the correct scenario with an enormous 117-yard outing in Week 2. I do know he has fallen wanting this line within the different two video games this 12 months, however this matchup, mixed along with his 84% snap share, provides me a ton of confidence right here.

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