Draft information to NHL goalie tandems: Which of them must you draft?

It isn’t simply anecdotal that tandems are a vital evil when navigating your crease to the fantasy championship.

Of the 360 season-long goaltender stat strains that make up the highest 24 goalies in every season since 2009-10, there are 98 goaltenders who did so whereas incomes fewer than 55% of the accessible minutes within the crease (crease share). Of these 98 throughout the previous 15 years, 46 of them are from the previous 5 seasons.

Equally, of the 16 goaltenders to complete among the many prime 12 in fantasy factors with a crease share under 55%, eight of them are from the previous 5 years.

The common crease share of a top-12 goalie in fantasy from 2009-10 to 2018-19 was 72.7%. That very same common crease share for the previous 5 seasons was 62.3%.

The workload revamp is not simply hitting tandems although, as workhorse goaltenders have gotten a factor of the previous. Overlook fantasy success being an element: Amongst all goaltenders prior to now 15 years, solely 78 have managed to earn a crease share of upper than 75%. However observe that 42 of these seasons come within the first 5 years of our statistics (from 2009-10 to 2013-14). Up to now 5 years, solely 10 goaltenders have hit that 75% threshold (Connor Hellebuyck did it 4 occasions, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Juuse Saros twice, with Carey Value and Thatcher Demko doing it as soon as).

Martin Brodeur had a 90.6% crease share in 2009-10, which is unparalleled now. Carey Value has the best crease share prior to now 5 seasons, posting 80.6% in 2019-20 – a full 10% decrease.

So tandems are more and more vital. Let’s categorical it as thus: Of fantasy factors generated by the highest 24 goaltenders every season from 2009-10 to 2013-14, it was simply 14.4 p.c that got here from goaltenders with a crease share under 55 p.c. That very same quantity between 2019-20 and 2023-24 has ballooned to 30.3 p.c.

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Sources: Projections | Mock draft | Goalie depth chart | Most added/dropped

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In alphabetical order, let’s discover a few of the groups more likely to have a tandem, and more likely to produce a top quality fantasy goaltender from that tandem. The second a part of that can omit some groups just like the Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames or Chicago Blackhawks, who, till we see in any other case, aren’t as seemingly to provide us a fantasy-relevant goaltender, particularly in a tandem.

We will even not take a look at groups more likely to have a goaltender declare 65% or extra of the crease share. The bottom crease share of a top-12 goaltender prior to now 15 years was 38.4%, in any case (Jack Campbell for the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2020-21).

To border the dialogue, a snapshot of final seasons performers from the identical crew is offered, with their respective crease share, fantasy factors and age. Then, we’ll listing the roster that’s shaping up for 2024-25, generally the identical gamers, generally not.

Skip forward: Boston Bruins | Carolina Hurricanes | Minnesota Wild | Pittsburgh Penguins | Seattle Kraken | Toronto Maple Leafs | Washington Capitals | Detroit Red Wings | Washington Capitals | Vegas Golden Knights

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Draft day picks

2023-24 season

• Linus Ullmark: 48.3% crease share, 116.0 fantasy factors (31 years, 40 days)

• Jeremy Swayman: 51.7% crease share, 136.8 fantasy factors (25 years, 290 days)

2024-25 roster

The definitive tandem duo for the previous couple seasons has now been cut up up, with Ullmark swapped to the Ottawa Senators for Korpisalo. If we’re being choosy, Swayman is technically not but on the Bruins roster (as of Sept. 20) as a result of he stays an unsigned restricted free agent. That mentioned, the Bruins are the blueprint for methods to run a tandem, as Swayman completed ninth amongst goaltenders for fantasy factors and Ullmark completed thirteenth, each worthy investments for fantasy groups. The season prior, 2022-23, Ullmark was first and Swayman was thirteenth.

Can the occasion hold raging with Ullmark out and Korpisalo in? If the Bruins find yourself paying Swayman the large contract, does he simply take over the crease as a workhorse? If the Bruins and Swayman are stalemated, does Korpisalo turn out to be a fantasy star? On the very least, Korpisalo is a must-add insurance coverage goal, however Swayman is unquestionably the popular alternative to begin the fantasy season, so long as he indicators on the dotted line.

2023-24 season

• Frederik Andersen: 18.5% crease share, 81.4 fantasy factors (34 years, 342 days)

• Spencer Martin: 16.0% crease share, 12.6 fantasy factors (29 years, 94 days)

• Antti Raanta: 25.7% crease share, 13.0 fantasy factors (35 years, 120 days)

• Pyotr Kochetkov: 48.1% crease share, 111.8 fantasy factors (25 years, 77 days)

• Yaniv Perets: 0.3% crease share, 0.2 fantasy factors (24 years, 189 days)

2024-25 roster

Only a fast observe as it is not the primary time it’s going to come up, you will see the crease share for the Hurricanes provides as much as greater than 100%. That is as a result of it is the crease share for that particular person goaltender; so when a participant was traded midseason it may skew the quantity. Spencer Martin’s 16.0% crease share refers to his share of the crease when he was a member for the Carolina Hurricanes. It doesn’t embrace the time he was with the Columbus Blue Jackets final season. You will see this once more under with Montreal and Jake Allen.

Of the 5 goaltenders making an look for the Hurricanes, solely Kochetkov completed among the many prime 24 goaltenders (seventeenth). It is seemingly the plan right here is to separate time between Kochetkov and Andersen, with the recent hand getting extra begins within the second. I stay a believer in Kochetkov and have issues about Andersen given their relative age and trajectories. Solely 13 goaltenders prior to now 15 seasons have managed to complete among the many prime 12 in fantasy at age 35 or older. Andersen turns 35 on October 2.

2023-24 season

2024-25 roster

The Wild seemingly have all three goaltender archetypes: Fleury, the daring veteran nonetheless hanging on because of his love of the sport, however previous his fantasy relevance; Gustavsson, in his prime with the most effective tandem seasons in current reminiscence on his aspect when he posted a ninth-place end in 2022-23 regardless of only a 46.5% crease share, however coming off a horrible season; and Wallstedt, the 21-year-old anointed as a future celebrity however missing the expertise within the NHL to verify he has the stuff.

Who’re we drafting? The reply in re-draft leagues needs to be both Gustavsson or Wallstedt, however not till they’re at the least the third goaltender you are taking on your fantasy crew. Wallstedt has in all probability been a precedence in your keeper leagues for a yr or two already, however it does not damage to verify on his availability.

2023-24 season

• Tristan Jarry: 55.7% crease share, 80.2 fantasy factors (29 years, 134 days)

• Alex Nedeljkovic: 41.9% crease share, 65.4 fantasy factors (28 years, 246 days)

• Magnus Hellberg: 2.4% crease share, 5.8 fantasy factors (33 years, 159 days)

2024-25 roster

The Penguins are a really fascinating case as a result of they nonetheless have a roster that, on paper, might win video games. The disappearance of the facility play final season was arguably the largest issue of their demise, however that might return given the gamers that can be out on the benefit. Now, what makes this significantly fascinating is that Jarry took a significant step again and Nedeljkovic took sufficient of a step ahead to place them on nearly even footing coming into the 2024-25 season. Jarry was a top-15 goaltender for 4 consecutive seasons earlier than final season, so he might return to prominence and is value a take a look at drafts. However Nedeljkovic is value watching, too, if his taking part in time can hover round 50% or if Jarry does not snap again into kind.

2023-24 season

• Philipp Grubauer: 40.3% crease share, 43.2 fantasy factors (32 years, 289 days)

• Joey Daccord: 57.2% crease share, 115.6 fantasy factors (28 years, 21 days)

• Chris Driedger: 2.4% crease share, 5.0 fantasy factors (30 years, 114 days)

2024-25 roster

I do not suppose this can be a tandem and I believe that Daccord has secured his position as at the least the 60-40 starter this season. However, out of respect for Grubauer ending second amongst all goaltenders in 2020-21, I am going to at the least listing him right here so you’ll be able to see the numbers. Clearly, Daccord was the higher goaltender for all of final season, which was a down yr general for the Kraken in comparison with their stunning 2022-23 marketing campaign. With that in thoughts, observe that Grubauer has completed forty sixth, forty fourth and 62nd amongst goalies in his three seasons with the Kraken, so it is Daccord or bust for fantasy.

2023-24 season

• Ilya Samsonov: 46.6% crease share, 62.4 fantasy factors (27 years, 199 days)

• Joseph Woll: 29.8% crease share, 45.0 fantasy factors (26 years, 60 days)

• Martin Jones: 23.7% crease share, 42.6 fantasy factors (34 years, 242 days)

2024-25 roster

In what I can solely describe as a state of affairs that equates to constructing the proper authorized case after which displaying as much as courtroom with no pants on, the Maple Leafs are going with a largely untested crease but once more – regardless of having an overpowered offense. Neither Woll nor Stolarz has earned a crease share better than 30.6% of their profession. Each have confirmed promise, with Stolarz among the many leaders in fantasy factors per 60 minutes (FPP60) final season and Woll amongst them in 2022-23, however success will come all the way down to how effectively they reply to elevated workload and accountability. I would not thoughts going into the season with both of them as my third goaltender, thanks largely to the Leafs being more likely to win loads. Nevertheless, you should not be counting on them as one in every of your prime two goaltenders for fantasy.

2023-24 season

• Charlie Lindgren: 57.5% crease share, 131.8 fantasy factors (30 years, 266 days)

• Darcy Kuemper: 37.6% crease share, 19.4 fantasy factors (34 years, 128 days)

• Hunter Shepard: 4.9% crease share, 5.0 fantasy factors (28 years, 307 days)

2024-25 roster

Stealing the crease from Darcy Kuemper final season, Lindgren helped win some fantasy leagues down the stretch. So this may increasingly not really be a tandem, per se, as a continued roll from Lindgren may hold him within the crease for a better than 60-40 cut up over the newly arrived Thompson. Whereas Lindgren completed eleventh general for fantasy final season, Thompson was no slouch both, posting sufficient fantasy factors to rank nineteenth amongst goalies.

Wait and watch

2023-24 season

• Ville Husso: 20.6% crease share, 17.2 fantasy factors (29 years, 216 days)

• James Reimer: 27.5% crease share, 43.4 fantasy factors (36 years, 178 days)

• Alex Lyon: 50.8% crease share, 80.6 fantasy factors (31 years, 274 days)

• Michael Hutchinson: 1.2% crease share, 0.6 fantasy factors (34 years, 192 days)

2024-25 roster

Amongst all of the Purple Wings goaltenders from final season in addition to those accessible this coming season, solely Talbot completed with sufficient fantasy factors to be among the many related goaltenders in 2023-24. And the very fact he completed tenth general comes with an enormous asterisk, as his stats fell off a cliff when the calendar flipped to 2024 (twenty seventh amongst goaltenders from Jan. 1 onward).

Absolutely some type of tandem will emerge right here between Talbot, Husso, Lyon and possibly even Campbell. However maybe the larger query is whether or not the Purple Wings take a sufficiently big step ahead general to offer the requisite wins required for the manufacturing of fantasy factors. There’s something constructive to be mentioned for all of those suitors: Talbot has completed among the many prime 12 goaltenders in three of the previous 4 seasons; Husso is eight years youthful and two seasons faraway from a fifteenth general end (in a season wherein his crease share was simply 47.7%); Lyon has had some constructive stretches prior to now two seasons, although hasn’t put all of it collectively; and even Campbell was a top-12 goaltender in each 2020-21 and 2021-22.

I do not suppose I am attempting to draft any of them out of the gate, however the Wings can be value watching in October for indicators of life within the crease.

2023-24 season

• Jake Allen: 31.1% crease share, 1.4 fantasy factors (34 years, 34 days)

• Sam Montembeault: 48.9% crease share, 55.0 fantasy factors (27 years, 314 days)

• Cayden Primeau: 26.7% crease share, 43.0 fantasy factors (25 years, 30 days)

2024-25 roster

Just like the Purple Wings, the principle query right here is whether or not the Canadiens are able to win extra video games in help of their goaltenders. Each Primeau and Montembeault have regarded stable at occasions, however have spent their profession taking part in for shedding groups. The Habs won’t fairly be there but although, so one in every of these two would seemingly have to take a number one position to pay attention sufficient fantasy worth for many leagues.

2023-24 season

• Adin Hill: 39.9% crease share, 84.0 fantasy factors (28 years, 121 days)

• Logan Thompson: 53.6% crease share, 105.8 fantasy factors (27 years, 196 days)

• Jiri Patera: 6.4% crease share, -2.0 fantasy factors (25 years, 198 days)

2024-25 roster

• Adin Hill

• Ilya Samsonov: 46.56% crease share (with TOR), 62.4 fantasy factors (27 years, 199 days)

• Akira Schmid: 18.72% crease share (with NJD), 6.8 fantasy factors (24 years, 120 days)

Accidents prevented Hill from having a pleasant victory lap after main the Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup the yr prior. However he simply missed the top-24 listing for goaltenders — falling 0.6 fantasy factors behind twenty fourth — and he managed to perform that whereas getting beneath a 40% crease share. There’s nonetheless some potential for Hill to place collectively a season-long fantasy marketing campaign that makes us comfortable. Samsonov’s profitable 2022-23 marketing campaign with the Leafs (tenth amongst goaltenders with a 50.2 crease share) is beginning to appear to be the aberration from what’s in any other case a not-fantasy-relevant profession (he completed between thirtieth and thirty fifth amongst goalies in his different 4 seasons).

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