NFL Week 3 odds, picks, spreads: Caleb Williams and Bears upset Colts; Packers keep sizzling below Malik Willis

Woof. The NFL has handled us like a punching bag over these first two weeks of the common season. At any time when we peg them to zig, they zag, and that was mightily true in Week 2. The second week of the 12 months was dominated by canines and burned us within the course of, going 5-10-1 ATS on the slate. Whereas these weeks are certain to occur at the very least every year, it stings nonetheless. That mentioned, all we are able to do is choose ourselves up and hold chugging alongside. 

This week, we’re zeroing in on a Buccaneers group that fared effectively for us of their upset over Detroit in Week 2 and fading a house favourite that has a shaky scenario below middle. 

2024 file

Locks of the Week ATS: 3-7
ATS: 10-19-3
ML: 17-15

All NFL odds by way of SportsLine consensus odds.

• Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)

We light New England final week and had been spurned by the hook on the three.5-point unfold in an time beyond regulation loss to Seattle. Nonetheless, the logic from final week nonetheless applies. It is a one-dimensional soccer group on offense. Sure, Hunter Henry had an outstanding recreation, but when New York can reduce the working recreation out of the equation — held Titans backs to three.5 yards per carry in Week 2 — the Patriots will wrestle to maneuver down the sector. That is additionally not even factoring in that they could possibly be all the way down to a backup left sort out on this recreation, additional complicating issues on that facet of the ball. 

As for the Jets, they’ve a capability to negate arguably New England’s largest energy: move rush. Second 12 months defensive lineman Keion White has already posted 4 sacks on the season. Nonetheless, New York is permitting a strain fee of simply 20.3% (greatest within the NFL). A part of that’s due to Aaron Rodgers getting the ball out in 2.4 seconds (quickest within the NFL). 

Projected rating: Jets 27, Patriots 17
The choose: Jets -6.5

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)  

We had been on the fitting facet of Tampa Bay’s recreation in Week 2 as they pulled off the upset over Detroit. We’ll be going again to the effectively right here of their residence matchup in opposition to Denver. This Broncos group has struggled mightily on offense below rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Particularly, Denver has been unable to execute throwing down the sector. On throws that journey 10 or extra yards by way of the air, Nix ranks thirty first in completion proportion out of 32 quarterbacks, thirtieth in passer ranking, and has three interceptions. So, if Tampa Bay can construct a lead, it appears unlikely Nix will have the ability to throw his group again into this. Patrick Surtain II shall be an issue for Mike Evans and the Buccaneers offense, however Baker Mayfield ought to have the ability to fade off of the star nook and nonetheless transfer the ball with Chris Godwin, who has been stellar to start out the season. 

It is also price mentioning that this Bucs group has performed effectively in opposition to rookie quarterbacks. Courting again to final season, Tampa Bay is 4-1 straight-up and ATS in opposition to rookie signal-callers.

Projected rating: Buccaneers 28, Broncos 16
The choose: Buccaneers -6.5

Anthony Richardson’s expertise provides him a ceiling that’s arguably unmatched within the NFL. Nonetheless, it is his inconsistency that has capped Indianapolis to date. We noticed that within the loss to Inexperienced Bay final week, and we’re now coming into into the territory of Richardson needing to throw at a extra constant stage earlier than we are able to belief him. This week, he has a tough matchup in opposition to a Bears protection that’s flat-out good and even gave C.J. Stroud suits every week in the past. 

Sure, there are considerations about Chicago’s offense as they have not seemed prolific in any sense to start out the 12 months, however the protection ought to assist carry this recreation to a halt in order that they will not be requested to do an excessive amount of as a way to pull off the street win. It additionally would not harm the Bears possibilities to raised transfer the ball offensively with Colts star defensive sort out DeForest Buckner now on injured reserve. 

Projected rating: Bears 21, Colts 17
The choose: Bears  +1.5

Which picks are you able to make with confidence, and which three must-see underdogs do you have to lock in now? Visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and discover out.

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)  

Malik Willis revenge recreation? Malik Willis revenge recreation!! The Packers quarterback wasn’t requested to do a lot within the group’s win over Indy in Week 2, however when his quantity was referred to as, he did not burn them. Willis accomplished 12 of his 14 passes for 122 yards and a landing whereas including 41 yards speeding. That is a credit score to move coach Matt LaFleur for not placing an excessive amount of on Willis’ shoulders, and I count on him to maintain the same recreation plan heading into Week 3. The previous Titans QB additionally ought to have some further hearth in his stomach as he faces the squad that traded him earlier this summer time.

In the meantime, Inexperienced Bay performs a Titans group that has a quarterback, Will Levis, who appears to like giving the ball to the opposing group. Up to now two weeks, Levis has made some questionable choices with the soccer and has turned it over. In his final 10 begins courting again to final season, Levis has extra interceptions than he does touchdowns, and the Packers protection is opportunistic sufficient to make the most of any mistake he might make on Sunday. Levis can be 2-8 ATS over his final 10 begins. 

Projected rating: Packers 20, Titans 17
The choose: Packers +3

The Dolphins shall be handing the reins of the offense to Skylar Thompson within the wake of Tua Tagovailoa touchdown on injured reserve together with his newest concussion. Had Tagovailoa been wholesome, this is able to’ve been a enjoyable matchup to absorb, due to the boatload of expertise that each of those groups have on the talent positions. Nonetheless, I haven’t got quite a lot of religion in Thompson having the ability to put the ball within the arms of his playmakers, drastically limiting the ceiling that they’ve to tug off the street upset or hold it inside the quantity. Seahawks linebacker Boye Mafe ranks second within the NFL with 15 pressures this season, and if Thompson begins to really feel that on a constant foundation, it may throw Miami’s offense off-kilter for the remainder of the night time.  

Projected rating: Seahawks 27, Dolphins 20
The choose: Seahawks -5

Remainder of the bunch

Texans at Vikings
Projected rating: Texans 23, Vikings 20
The choose: Texans -2.5

Chargers at Steelers
Projected rating: Steelers 20, Chargers 17
The choose: Steelers -2

Giants at Browns
Projected rating: Browns 23, Giants 13
The choose: Browns -6.5

Eagles at Saints
Projected rating: Eagles 27, Saints 24
The choose: Eagles +1.5

Panthers at Raiders
Projected rating: Raiders 21, Panthers 16
The choose: Panthers +5.5

Ravens at Cowboys
Projected rating: Cowboys 27, Ravens 26
The choose: Cowboys +1

Lions at Cardinals
Projected rating: Lions 24, Cardinals 20
The choose: Lions -3

49ers at Rams
Projected rating: 49ers 27, Rams 17
The choose: 49ers -7.5

Chiefs at Falcons
Projected rating: Chiefs 30, Falcons 24
The choose: Chiefs -4

Jaguars at Bills
Projected rating: Payments 30, Jaguars 20
The choose: Payments -5.5

Commanders at Bengals
Projected rating: Bengals 30, Commanders 21
The choose: Bengals -8