2024 NFL futures: What the SportsLine Projection Mannequin now sees for Pittsburgh

Though they have not completed beneath .500 since going 6-10 in 2003, not a lot was anticipated from the Pittsburgh Steelers this season. However historical past has confirmed that you just by no means can depend out a crew coached by Mike Tomlin, and to this point in 2024, that once more holds true.

The Steelers have posted a profitable document 14 instances and went 8-8 on three events since Tomlin took the reins from Corridor-of-Famer Invoice Cowher within the Metal Metropolis in 2007. After two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback Ben Roethlisberger retired in 2021, Pittsburgh gained its closing 4 regular-season video games the next yr to complete at 9-8 and ended 2023 with three straight victories to go 10-7 and earn a wild-card berth, though it misplaced to the Buffalo Bills on the highway.

Kenny Pickett, who was chosen with the twentieth general decide within the 2022 NFL Draft, began nearly all of video games below middle in these two seasons (24), with Mitchell Trubisky (seven) and Mason Rudolph (4) additionally receiving alternatives – largely as a consequence of accidents. All three are elsewhere this yr because the Steelers introduced in nine-time Professional Bowler and Tremendous Bowl champ Russell Wilson as a free agent and traded for Justin Fields, who was drafted eleventh general in 2021 by the Chicago Bears.

Even with the improve at arguably crucial place in crew sports activities, Pittsburgh was not anticipated to be an element within the playoff image this yr. In truth, the SportsLine Projection Mannequin gave the Steelers 12% probability to win the AFC North title for the primary time since 2020 and a 32% probability to seize a wild-card spot in its preseason forecast.

The mannequin, which simulates each NFL recreation 10,000 instances and is up effectively over $7,000 for $100 gamers on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, had even much less confidence within the crew going far within the postseason. It gave Pittsburgh a 2.2% probability to achieve the Tremendous Bowl and a 1% probability to win it for a document seventh time.

Nevertheless, the Steelers have made everybody look dangerous after two video games this yr, although their offense has been lower than spectacular. The membership has produced a complete of 31 factors, recording only one landing and eight subject targets, however has allowed 16 in posting highway wins towards the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos.

The 35-year-old Wilson, who led the Seattle Seahawks to victory in Tremendous Bowl XLVIII, has but to make his debut with Pittsburgh as a consequence of a calf harm. That left the offense within the fingers of Fields, who has thrown for less than 273 yards and the one TD. However extra importantly, the 25-year-old has not been intercepted after getting picked off 30 instances in 40 video games over his three seasons in Chicago.

Relationship to final yr, Fields has gone 4 consecutive begins with out committing a turnover, the longest such streak of his NFL profession. Since 1950, he’s the fifth quarterback to win his first two begins with the Steelers and first to perform the feat since Devlin Hodges was victorious in his first three earlier than shedding his closing three in 2019 — his first and solely season within the NFL.

Pittsburgh additionally hasn’t misplaced a fumble, making it considered one of three groups with no giveaway over the primary two weeks of the marketing campaign. It’s tied for second within the NFL with 4 interceptions and ranks first with a plus-5 turnover differential.

And although the Steelers are thirtieth in each complete offense (260.5 yards) and passing offense (121.5), they grew to become the third crew within the Tremendous Bowl period that received off to a 2-0 begin whereas scoring fewer than two touchdowns, becoming a member of the 1988 Payments and 2000 Detroit Lions.

A robust unit for the franchise for many years, the protection has performed a big function in Pittsburgh’s early success in 2024. The Steelers are fifth in each complete protection (260.5 yards allowed) and towards the run (76.5) whereas rating second in factors allowed (8.0).

Consequently, the crew is the shock chief within the AFC North, with the Cleveland Browns sitting in second place after splitting their first two contests. In the meantime, the 2 golf equipment that gained the division title 5 of the final six years — the reigning champion Baltimore Ravens (three) and Cincinnati Bengals (two) — have gotten off to disappointing 0-2 begins.

Taking all of that into consideration, the SportsLine Projection Mannequin has a brand new notion of the Steelers. Coming into Week 3, it provides the Steelers a 41% probability of profitable the division and places its possibilities of reaching the postseason at 68.7%. The crew now represents the AFC within the Tremendous Bowl 7.2% of the time and captures the Vince Lombardi Trophy in 3.5% of the simulations.

In Week 3, Pittsburgh faces a stiff check in its dwelling opener because it takes on the Los Angeles Chargers, who are also undefeated below new head coach Jim Harbaugh. Fields once more will make the beginning for the Steelers, as Wilson continues to get better from his harm, and is prone to have a tough time getting the offense on observe towards a Los Angeles crew that’s second within the NFL in complete protection (260.5 yards allowed) and first in factors allowed (6.5).

If Fields is ready to lead Pittsburgh to victory, the mannequin says the crew’s probabilities to make the playoffs will increase to 79%. It additionally tasks that the Steelers would attain the Tremendous Bowl 9% of the time and win it 4% of the time in simulations.

The mannequin is asking for a decent recreation between the Steelers and Chargers. Nevertheless, the competition is not one of many three with A-grade picks primarily based on mannequin simulations for the third week of the season. You’ll be able to find those top-tier Week 3 NFL picks at SportsLine.