Fantasy hockey bounce again picks: Defensemen to draft

Identical to the forwards, there are defenders that can expertise a lull of their fantasy careers, solely to return as soon as once more to prominence. However given the present crop of blue-liners that have a valley of their fantasy manufacturing, the related query as we head into the 2024-25 season will probably be: Is that decline everlasting?

Utilizing solely gamers with a profession 1.7 fantasy factors per recreation (FPPG) threshold, there have been 41 completely different defenders up to now 15 seasons which have skilled at the least a 0.35 FPPG drop from season to season, solely to then later bounce again to above their profession common in a subsequent season. A few them have executed it greater than as soon as.

It is a lesser whole than the forwards which have skilled the identical dip. Defenders are usually a bit of extra secure, which is sensible as they sometimes have extra counting stats driving their fantasy factors (hits, blocked photographs). However simply 41 managing to bounce again since 2009-10, at scale, is not lots. In that very same 15-season span, 239 distinctive defenders have completed top-60 amongst their friends in fantasy factors.

To determine developments, let’s have a better take a look at a few of the profitable bounce-back seasons in current reminiscence.

If you want to jump ahead to see our top picks, click here.

In Justin Faulk‘s ultimate season with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2018-19, he posted 1.81 FPPG (in opposition to his profession mark of 1.77). His first marketing campaign with the St. Louis Blues in 2019-20 noticed him plummet to 1.22 FPPG and drop from fantasy rosters. However Faulk returned with a vengeance in 2020-21 with 1.85 FPPG. Whereas we would level to a change in protection associate, Alex Pietrangelo performed with him within the down season and Torey Krug in his bounce-back marketing campaign — each high quality defenders. His ice time may need been the most important issue, having dropped to twenty:34 in his first season with the Blues, however then again as much as 24:16 in 2020-21.

Kris Letang has had a number of yo-yo seasons in his profession. He has a 2.25 FPPG mark general. In 2012-13, he posted 2.66 FPPG, dipped to 2.15 in 2013-14 after which was again as much as 2.45 in 2014-15. Equally, he managed 2.46 in 2016-17, dropped to 1.99 in 2017-18 and was again as much as 2.62 in 2018-19. After all, he solely managed to play 72% of all doable common season video games in that span, so some accidents certainly performed a job. Morgan Rielly has equally oscillated together with his FPPG, posting 1.78, 2.29, 1.77, 1.70, 2.02, 1.78 and a pair of.37 since 2017-18. He is been a bit more healthy in that span than Letang, taking part in in 89% of video games.

Dennis Wideman had a profession 1.88 FPPG mark, however topped it within the lockout-shortened 2013 season with 2.14 FPPG, his first season with the Calgary Flames. The following season was marred by accidents, together with a damaged hand, as he stumbled to 1.77 FPPG and the Flames completed on the backside of the standings. The following season, Wideman posted 2.50 FPPG and the Flames soared into the second spherical of the playoffs. We see a little bit of a mixture right here of accidents and group worth taking part in a job in Wideman’s resurgence.

MacKenzie Weegar is an instance of needing some adjustment time with a brand new group. He had 2.13 FPPG in 2021-22 with the Florida Panthers, then dropped to 1.61 FPPG in his first season with the Calgary Flames. Then, final 12 months, he fired again up with 2.69 FPPG.

That is all to say that there is not a exact method right here for why FPPG manufacturing will drop after which return.

In the case of present gamers that noticed a nosedive in FPPG final season, three stand out as a result of there are key qualities they share: They’ve had epic fantasy careers and are getting older. Is that this a dip or has the decline grow to be regular and everlasting?

When searching for a dip we’re evaluating final season’s FPPG to the mixed FPPG from the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons.

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The massive ones

Erik Karlsson, D, Pittsburgh Penguins (2021-23 FPPG: 2.23, final season FPPG: 1.83): We’ll begin with Karlsson, who’s the youngest of our three main fantasy drop-offs from final season at 34. From 2013-14 to 2016-17, throughout all 4 seasons, solely Alex Ovechkin had extra fantasy factors amongst skaters (and it was just one extra fantasy level; 847.1 for Ovechkin and 846.1 for Karlsson). Then Karlsson grew to become odd whereas battling by means of accidents for lots of the subsequent 5 seasons, solely to return roaring again together with his Norris Trophy-winning 2022-23 marketing campaign that noticed him end eleventh amongst skaters for fantasy factors. The commerce to the Penguins then had us hopeful he may proceed to stunt on opposing groups whereas taking part in with a stronger supporting forged. Nicely, everyone knows how that went; the Penguins energy play dried up they usually missed the playoffs similar to the San Jose Sharks.

So what now? Nicely, we have to speak concerning the subsequent participant, too.

Kris Letang, D, Pittsburgh Penguins (2021-23 FPPG: 2.39, final season FPPG: 1.98): At 37 years previous, Letang additionally dipped in fantasy manufacturing final season. Nicely, at the least in FPPG. Final season was the primary time for the reason that 2017-18 season that Letang dipped under 2.0 FPPG — even when solely by a bit of. Letang ceded his longtime function because the Penguins power-play quarterback to the arrival Karlsson, however nonetheless completed with extra fantasy factors as a result of the benefit struggled.

So the questions are: Can these two veteran Pens defenders assist rebound the group, the ability play and, consequently, themselves? And the place ought to we draft them in fantasy?

The very first thing to notice is that the variety of D that handle to complete among the many high 60 at their place in fantasy factors at age 35 or older has been restricted to simply 66 gamers since 2009-10. And it is solely 41 for those who additionally filter for them among the many high 100 skaters general. If we go to Letang’s age, it drops to solely 16 D which have managed top-100 seasons at 37 or older up to now 15 years — and that features Letang himself final season, when he completed sixty fifth.

So Karlsson is the popular choice of the 2, little doubt. There’s some upside right here if the Penguins power-play struggles might be confined to final season. Maybe Karlsson follows the bounce-back path of Weegar — as in, he simply wanted a season to regulate to his new environment and can go proper again to world-beating once more. Absolutely a part of this offseason was the Pens coaches planning for the right way to get Karlsson, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to have chemistry when it is five-on-four. Karlsson ought to be thought-about at drafts close to the very high of the second tier of protection — so when the doubtless high 12 are clearly off the board — as there’s nonetheless a variety of potential reward.

As for Letang, effectively, he’ll in all probability nonetheless be a serviceable fantasy asset, however the upside is not there with Karlsson taking the helm on the benefit.

Verdict: Karlsson remains to be protected to maintain or draft in fantasy, however do not be overly hasty considering Letang nonetheless has fantasy items within the tank.

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Brent Burns, D, Carolina Hurricanes (2021-23 FPPG: 2.06, final season FPPG: 1.58): Which brings us to Burns, who will flip 40 earlier than the tip of the season. In the case of defenders posting a top-100 fantasy season at age 39 or older up to now 15 years, this is the checklist: Nicklas Lidstrom twice, Zdeno Chara twice and Sergei Gonchar as soon as. Of these 5 seasons, solely Lidstrom’s 2010-11 marketing campaign was higher than 68th general. So for Burns to slide under fantasy relevance final season after which bounce again in a major approach sounds fairly far fetched.

However this is the factor: the Hurricanes will nonetheless have a harmful energy play and Burns nonetheless has an opportunity to anchor it. The Hurricanes might find yourself going with Shayne Gostisbehere as a specialist on the benefit, however they’d Tony DeAngelo final season to play an analogous function and nonetheless went with Burns for the overwhelming majority of minutes. That basically is the rub although; Burns or Gostisbehere may have some fantasy worth this season, in all probability not each. For my draft worth, I am going with Gostisbehere.

Verdict: You in all probability will not remorse not having Burns in your roster this season.

Some others

Devon Toews, D, Colorado Avalanche (2021-23 FPPG: 2.02, final season FPPG: 1.75): This would possibly simply be a case of an inflated FPPG from one season making Toews seem as if he is dipped in manufacturing. His 13-goal, 57-point profession 12 months in solely 66 video games in 2021-22 actually pops his FPPG chart, however in actuality he is completed every of the previous three seasons with between 139 and 155 fantasy factors, which is a good projection going into one other season with Cale Makar as his protection associate.

Adam Larsson, D, Seattle Kraken (2021-23 FPPG: 1.82, final season FPPG: 1.57): Coming into his personal as a shot-blocking hero in 2020-21, Larsson reeled off three seasons of fantasy relevance, ending between sixty fourth and 113th general in fantasy factors till final season, when he dropped to a hundred and seventieth. Nonetheless 31 years previous to begin the season, Larsson simply re-upped on a four-year extension with the Kraken. He’ll nonetheless get heavy minutes and is an effective wager to bounce again to his fantasy related methods.

Aaron Ekblad, D, Florida Panthers (2021-23 FPPG: 2.07, final season FPPG: 1.41): It has been straightforward to be down on Ekblad of late, as accidents and different gamers have pushed him down the depth chart. However the timing has by no means been higher for a resurgence. Nonetheless squarely in his prime at 28, Ekblad has been handed a reprieve by the 2 gamers forward of him on the power-play depth chart getting squeezed out of Florida; Brandon Montour signed in Seattle and Oliver Ekman-Larsson in Toronto. He is presently head and shoulders the best choice for the benefit. If Ekblad can keep wholesome, this might lastly be that profession 12 months we have been ready for.

Tony DeAngelo, D, (free agent) (2021-23 FPPG: 1.82, final season FPPG: 0.99): There are minimal choices left for DeAngelo to discover a house that will each give him taking part in time and make him a fantasy asset, regardless of the actual fact he nonetheless has potential as a power-play specialist. DeAngelo would wish the precise mixture of a group that may afford to provide him minimal even-strength minutes and remains to be in have to a possible raise to the benefit. A brief checklist of high quality touchdown locations is likely to be restricted to the Sharks and perhaps, if you wish to droop disbelief, the Minnesota Wild or Panthers. Everybody else already has a defensive group that will in all probability face subtraction by his addition.

Tyson Barrie, D, (free agent, tryout with Calgary Flames) (2021-23 FPPG: 1.67, final season FPPG: 1.23): Even when Barrie does make the Flames roster, he would wish power-play time to achieve his fantasy potential. It is onerous to ascertain that with Weegar and Rasmus Andersson as choices.

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