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Re: The New 60/40
Post
by Carol88888 »
Lawyered_ wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 4:08 pmCarol88888 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 2:21 pm
I hate it . Particularly the hedged fund futures. Hedge funds don’t outperform the S&P after bills. Buffett proved that together with his wager to my satisfaction. I do not know a lot about managed futures however I believe you might need expense points there as effectively together with how this stuff get taxed.If there’s one factor I’ve realized from these boards it is that easier is best. Do not over assume it.
It isn’t Hedged Fund futures. It’s development following through managed futures. Here’s a simulation of RSST since 1992 utilizing KMLM as a proxy. RSST is 100% SPY and 100% Managed Futures.
The truth that HFND has an expense ratio of 1.22% and CTA has an expense ratio of .78% is sufficient to make me run for the hills.
Re: The New 60/40: 40% of what?
I perceive the treasuries however the remaining is a dumpster hearth. managed futures, hedge fund tracker- wtf,o? The one motive to have gold, effectively
I am unable to, until you might be trend-following current gold.
Who’s promoting you this diversification plan?
westpac
Nonetheless on Patrol.
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Re: The New 60/40
Post
by FoundingFather »
betablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 2:28 pm
As a result of the bond bull marketplace for the final 40 years has ended.
It appears to me that we disagree on this primary premise. Why do you assume bonds are a nasty deal proper now? As others have identified, bonds are much more enticing now than they had been a couple of years in the past, in case you are into that market timing factor…
I purchased among the 30 12 months TIPS not too long ago at 2.3% actual yield. Except I actually misunderstand bonds, why ought to 2.3% actual yield make me nervous?
Founding Father
“I don’t assume myself equal to the Command I’m honored with.” -George Washington (excerpt from Journals of the Continental Congress, 16 June 1775)
Re: The New 60/40
FoundingFather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2024 9:48 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 2:28 pm
As a result of the bond bull marketplace for the final 40 years has ended.It appears to me that we disagree on this primary premise. Why do you assume bonds are a nasty deal proper now? As others have identified, bonds are much more enticing now than they had been a couple of years in the past, in case you are into that market timing factor…
I purchased among the 30 12 months TIPS not too long ago at 2.3% actual yield. Except I actually misunderstand bonds, why ought to 2.3% actual yield make me nervous?
Founding Father
I believe the issue folks right here have with bonds is one among recency bias and expectation. Bonds used to carry out a lot better over the previous few a long time so people have concluded that is how they must carry out without end. Nevertheless, the monetary markets do not owe us a selected return on any given asset class. I am certain in some unspecified time in the future sooner or later there shall be an prolonged interval the place shares are returning considerably lower than what they do at this time and people shall be adamant that shares are a nasty funding.
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Re: The New 60/40
Post
by topper1296 »
globalpatriot wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 6:50 pm
I just like the de-risk and legal responsibility match remark above for bond causes.That being stated I do have 10% in “options” at present 3% IAU (gold) and seven% VNQ (actual property) however I do not know if that helps a lot .
My different asset allocation is similar to this. I’ve 5% every in gold and REITS for my different belongings. I checked out others however REITS and gold have cheap bills ratios in comparison with most different viable different belongings.
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Re: The New 60/40
What, precisely, is a “regime?” Do we all know for certain that “regimes” are an actual factor in bonds, and never one thing we understand within the document, after the actual fact? The NEBR won’t decide to saying we’re in a recession till it’s over; are bond “regimes” totally different?
Which is our technique to be?
a) Keep the course.
b) Decide what sort of regime we’re in, decide the place we’re in it, decide when the regime is about to finish or has ended, decide what the brand new regime is, and alter course each time the regime modifications?
Annual earnings twenty kilos, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and 6, consequence happiness; Annual earnings twenty kilos, annual expenditure twenty kilos ought and 6, consequence distress.
Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 5:46 pm
I’d additionally love to incorporate inflation linked securities however there aren’t any good non-advisor autos for that.
??? If you need Lengthy-Time period TIPS there’s the Pimco 15+ 12 months US TIPS ETF (LTPZ). For Intermediate-Time period TIPS, Constancy and Vanguard have wonderful and low cost expense ratio mutual funds and Schwab has a superb US TIPS ETF as effectively. iShares and Vanguard have wonderful Quick-Time period TIPS ETFs. You do not want an Advisor to entry these. You may also purchase TIPS individually at a really low value additionally with out an Advisor. Except you reside outdoors of america, you’ve gotten a whole lot of good TIPS merchandise accessible.
A idiot and his cash are good for enterprise.
Re: The New 60/40
if you would like extra return than a 60/40 (and bonds have achieved nice these days), then why not go to 65/35 or 70/30 for long run. 1-2 unhealthy years for one thing is okay – hopefully somebody purchased at bond lows
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Re: The New 60/40
Post
by betablocker »
FoundingFather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2024 9:48 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 2:28 pm
As a result of the bond bull marketplace for the final 40 years has ended.It appears to me that we disagree on this primary premise. Why do you assume bonds are a nasty deal proper now? As others have identified, bonds are much more enticing now than they had been a couple of years in the past, in case you are into that market timing factor…
I purchased among the 30 12 months TIPS not too long ago at 2.3% actual yield. Except I actually misunderstand bonds, why ought to 2.3% actual yield make me nervous?
Founding Father
If inflation goes again up, Treasuries go down. In addition they are likely to correlate with equities. I wouldn’t say that individuals shouldn’t personal treasuries simply that they aren’t an ideal hedge and there are others traders ought to have a look at together with of their portfolios. TIPS make some sense to me however they’re an odd instrument and CPI isn’t probably the most dependable inflation gage. However that’s simply my opinion.
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Re: The New 60/40
Post
by betablocker »
nedsaid wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 11:59 ambetablocker wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 5:46 pm
I’d additionally love to incorporate inflation linked securities however there aren’t any good non-advisor autos for that.??? If you need Lengthy-Time period TIPS there’s the Pimco 15+ 12 months US TIPS ETF (LTPZ). For Intermediate-Time period TIPS, Constancy and Vanguard have wonderful and low cost expense ratio mutual funds and Schwab has a superb US TIPS ETF as effectively. iShares and Vanguard have wonderful Quick-Time period TIPS ETFs. You do not want an Advisor to entry these. You may also purchase TIPS individually at a really low value additionally with out an Advisor. Except you reside outdoors of america, you’ve gotten a whole lot of good TIPS merchandise accessible.
Sorry meant insurance coverage linked securities.
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Re: The New 60/40
Post
by betablocker »
What in regards to the different 20% of the time? That’s my level. You may go a decade plus with damaging actual fairness and/or treasury returns as we did within the Nineteen Seventies. I believe it’s simply ahistorical to disregard these points and never embody different diversification.
Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 2:48 pmFoundingFather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2024 9:48 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 2:28 pm
As a result of the bond bull marketplace for the final 40 years has ended.It appears to me that we disagree on this primary premise. Why do you assume bonds are a nasty deal proper now? As others have identified, bonds are much more enticing now than they had been a couple of years in the past, in case you are into that market timing factor…
I purchased among the 30 12 months TIPS not too long ago at 2.3% actual yield. Except I actually misunderstand bonds, why ought to 2.3% actual yield make me nervous?
Founding Father
If inflation goes again up, Treasuries go down. In addition they are likely to correlate with equities. I wouldn’t say that individuals shouldn’t personal treasuries simply that they aren’t an ideal hedge and there are others traders ought to have a look at together with of their portfolios. TIPS make some sense to me however they’re an odd instrument and CPI isn’t probably the most dependable inflation gage. However that’s simply my opinion.
Solely the NAV goes down, you get the identical money return in your pocket that you simply had been initially promised although. If @ purchase time you had been promised $10k/yr in bond coupon funds, you’ll nonetheless get that $10k/yr in bond coupon funds, even when the NAV craters 20%. You purchase bonds for his or her *cashflow*, not for his or her NAV.
Additionally, many individuals purchase LTT’s particularly as a result of for lengthy durations of time, they aren’t very correlated with equities.
I might kindly recommend re-examining your understanding of bonds after which come again and re-evaluate your place.
Whether or not wealthy or poor, a younger lady ought to understand how a checking account works, perceive the composition of mortgages and bonds, and know the worth of curiosity and the way it accumulates. -Hetty Inexperienced
Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 2:49 pmnedsaid wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 11:59 ambetablocker wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 5:46 pm
I’d additionally love to incorporate inflation linked securities however there aren’t any good non-advisor autos for that.??? If you need Lengthy-Time period TIPS there’s the Pimco 15+ 12 months US TIPS ETF (LTPZ). For Intermediate-Time period TIPS, Constancy and Vanguard have wonderful and low cost expense ratio mutual funds and Schwab has a superb US TIPS ETF as effectively. iShares and Vanguard have wonderful Quick-Time period TIPS ETFs. You do not want an Advisor to entry these. You may also purchase TIPS individually at a really low value additionally with out an Advisor. Except you reside outdoors of america, you’ve gotten a whole lot of good TIPS merchandise accessible.
Sorry meant insurance coverage linked securities.
Okay, that is a chance so that you can clarify what you imply by insurance coverage linked securities. I believe I would know what you imply however I’m desirous about your feedback.
A idiot and his cash are good for enterprise.
Re: The New 60/40
nisiprius wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 11:50 am
What, precisely, is a “regime?” Do we all know for certain that “regimes” are an actual factor in bonds, and never one thing we understand within the document, after the actual fact? The NEBR won’t decide to saying we’re in a recession till it’s over; are bond “regimes” totally different?Which is our technique to be?
a) Keep the course.
b) Decide what sort of regime we’re in, decide the place we’re in it, decide when the regime is about to finish or has ended, decide what the brand new regime is, and alter course each time the regime modifications?
I can see how my response might be learn as implying altering technique, however that is not what I meant. Having stated that, there are actually very good folks that will argue we ought to be altering course, however I digress.
I simply marvel why there are such a lot of whos universe ends at “Shares & Bonds”?
Why aren’t any different belongings worthy of consideration?
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Re: The New 60/40
Post
by betablocker »
nedsaid wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 3:34 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 2:49 pmnedsaid wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 11:59 ambetablocker wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 5:46 pm
I’d additionally love to incorporate inflation linked securities however there aren’t any good non-advisor autos for that.??? If you need Lengthy-Time period TIPS there’s the Pimco 15+ 12 months US TIPS ETF (LTPZ). For Intermediate-Time period TIPS, Constancy and Vanguard have wonderful and low cost expense ratio mutual funds and Schwab has a superb US TIPS ETF as effectively. iShares and Vanguard have wonderful Quick-Time period TIPS ETFs. You do not want an Advisor to entry these. You may also purchase TIPS individually at a really low value additionally with out an Advisor. Except you reside outdoors of america, you’ve gotten a whole lot of good TIPS merchandise accessible.
Sorry meant insurance coverage linked securities.
Okay, that is a chance so that you can clarify what you imply by insurance coverage linked securities. I believe I would know what you imply however I’m desirous about your feedback.
Issues like this: https://www.amundi.com/usinvestors/Prod … erformance.
Diversified disaster bonds/securities. Not correlated however have fairly good returns.
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Re: The New 60/40
Post
by betablocker »
zie wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 3:10 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 2:48 pmFoundingFather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2024 9:48 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 2:28 pm
As a result of the bond bull marketplace for the final 40 years has ended.It appears to me that we disagree on this primary premise. Why do you assume bonds are a nasty deal proper now? As others have identified, bonds are much more enticing now than they had been a couple of years in the past, in case you are into that market timing factor…
I purchased among the 30 12 months TIPS not too long ago at 2.3% actual yield. Except I actually misunderstand bonds, why ought to 2.3% actual yield make me nervous?
Founding Father
If inflation goes again up, Treasuries go down. In addition they are likely to correlate with equities. I wouldn’t say that individuals shouldn’t personal treasuries simply that they aren’t an ideal hedge and there are others traders ought to have a look at together with of their portfolios. TIPS make some sense to me however they’re an odd instrument and CPI isn’t probably the most dependable inflation gage. However that’s simply my opinion.
Solely the NAV goes down, you get the identical money return in your pocket that you simply had been initially promised although. If @ purchase time you had been promised $10k/yr in bond coupon funds, you’ll nonetheless get that $10k/yr in bond coupon funds, even when the NAV craters 20%. You purchase bonds for his or her *cashflow*, not for his or her NAV.
Additionally, many individuals purchase LTT’s particularly as a result of for lengthy durations of time, they aren’t very correlated with equities.
I might kindly recommend re-examining your understanding of bonds after which come again and re-evaluate your place.
It’s true that the money flows are assured however that solely issues for legal responsibility matching on mounted bills. Nearly all folks must pay for issues which are topic to inflation so I’d kindly recommend you reexamine your understanding.
Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 5:46 pm
The over reliance on bonds has been the Achilles heel of 60/40 however the idea of a core fairness place of 60% diversified by some low correlation belongings at 40% nonetheless is sensible to me. Personally I’ve been concentrating on a portfolio of:60% equities: I’ve about 70% of that in TSM with 10% every of small cap worth US and worldwide and 10% in rising.
40% in diversifiers: 10% intermediate time period Treasuries (IEF), 10% in managed futures (CTA), 10% in a hedge fund tracker etf (HFND), and 10% in gold (GLD).I may additionally see simply doing 20% bonds and 20% managed futures. I’d additionally love to incorporate inflation linked securities however there aren’t any good non-advisor autos for that.
I may additionally see instances for placing in some REITS in core fairness and TIPS in diversifiers.
I’m curious how others are eager about this going ahead.
Shares and bonds are ok for me. No want for gold or some hedge fund tracker
Crom laughs at your 4 Winds
Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 7:46 pmzie wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 3:10 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 2:48 pmFoundingFather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2024 9:48 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 2:28 pm
As a result of the bond bull marketplace for the final 40 years has ended.It appears to me that we disagree on this primary premise. Why do you assume bonds are a nasty deal proper now? As others have identified, bonds are much more enticing now than they had been a couple of years in the past, in case you are into that market timing factor…
I purchased among the 30 12 months TIPS not too long ago at 2.3% actual yield. Except I actually misunderstand bonds, why ought to 2.3% actual yield make me nervous?
Founding Father
If inflation goes again up, Treasuries go down. In addition they are likely to correlate with equities. I wouldn’t say that individuals shouldn’t personal treasuries simply that they aren’t an ideal hedge and there are others traders ought to have a look at together with of their portfolios. TIPS make some sense to me however they’re an odd instrument and CPI isn’t probably the most dependable inflation gage. However that’s simply my opinion.
Solely the NAV goes down, you get the identical money return in your pocket that you simply had been initially promised although. If @ purchase time you had been promised $10k/yr in bond coupon funds, you’ll nonetheless get that $10k/yr in bond coupon funds, even when the NAV craters 20%. You purchase bonds for his or her *cashflow*, not for his or her NAV.
Additionally, many individuals purchase LTT’s particularly as a result of for lengthy durations of time, they aren’t very correlated with equities.
I might kindly recommend re-examining your understanding of bonds after which come again and re-evaluate your place.
It’s true that the money flows are assured however that solely issues for legal responsibility matching on mounted bills. Nearly all folks must pay for issues which are topic to inflation so I’d kindly recommend you reexamine your understanding.
There are inflation-protected treasuries that enhance in worth in accordance with inflation. TIPS, TIPS funds, sequence I financial savings bonds
Additionally unsure why you say long run treasuries “are likely to correlate with equities”. They’re fairly low in correlation
Crom laughs at your 4 Winds
Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 7:39 pmnedsaid wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 3:34 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 2:49 pmnedsaid wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 11:59 ambetablocker wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 5:46 pm
I’d additionally love to incorporate inflation linked securities however there aren’t any good non-advisor autos for that.??? If you need Lengthy-Time period TIPS there’s the Pimco 15+ 12 months US TIPS ETF (LTPZ). For Intermediate-Time period TIPS, Constancy and Vanguard have wonderful and low cost expense ratio mutual funds and Schwab has a superb US TIPS ETF as effectively. iShares and Vanguard have wonderful Quick-Time period TIPS ETFs. You do not want an Advisor to entry these. You may also purchase TIPS individually at a really low value additionally with out an Advisor. Except you reside outdoors of america, you’ve gotten a whole lot of good TIPS merchandise accessible.
Sorry meant insurance coverage linked securities.
Okay, that is a chance so that you can clarify what you imply by insurance coverage linked securities. I believe I would know what you imply however I’m desirous about your feedback.
Issues like this: https://www.amundi.com/usinvestors/Prod … erformance.
Diversified disaster bonds/securities. Not correlated however have fairly good returns.
Thanks. I do know Larry Swedroe has mentioned these.
A idiot and his cash are good for enterprise.
Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 7:46 pmzie wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 3:10 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Solar Sep 15, 2024 2:48 pmFoundingFather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2024 9:48 pmbetablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 10, 2024 2:28 pm
As a result of the bond bull marketplace for the final 40 years has ended.It appears to me that we disagree on this primary premise. Why do you assume bonds are a nasty deal proper now? As others have identified, bonds are much more enticing now than they had been a couple of years in the past, in case you are into that market timing factor…
I purchased among the 30 12 months TIPS not too long ago at 2.3% actual yield. Except I actually misunderstand bonds, why ought to 2.3% actual yield make me nervous?
Founding Father
If inflation goes again up, Treasuries go down. In addition they are likely to correlate with equities. I wouldn’t say that individuals shouldn’t personal treasuries simply that they aren’t an ideal hedge and there are others traders ought to have a look at together with of their portfolios. TIPS make some sense to me however they’re an odd instrument and CPI isn’t probably the most dependable inflation gage. However that’s simply my opinion.
Solely the NAV goes down, you get the identical money return in your pocket that you simply had been initially promised although. If @ purchase time you had been promised $10k/yr in bond coupon funds, you’ll nonetheless get that $10k/yr in bond coupon funds, even when the NAV craters 20%. You purchase bonds for his or her *cashflow*, not for his or her NAV.
Additionally, many individuals purchase LTT’s particularly as a result of for lengthy durations of time, they aren’t very correlated with equities.
I might kindly recommend re-examining your understanding of bonds after which come again and re-evaluate your place.
It’s true that the money flows are assured however that solely issues for legal responsibility matching on mounted bills. Nearly all folks must pay for issues which are topic to inflation so I’d kindly recommend you reexamine your understanding.
Inflation is certainly an issue typically. One some authorities bonds even have an answer for, not like all different potential investments. So I do not perceive your level in any respect. Do you not know that some governments(The US and EU particularly) provide inflation protected bonds?
Lengthy Time period Treasuries(LTT) solely typically correlate with equities. There are lengthy durations of time when they don’t correlate very effectively in any respect. There are many portfolios betting that the non-correlation continues, even right here on this discussion board. Teachers, final I checked, are nonetheless pondering what makes LTT’s typically correlate and typically not. Final I heard they assume it might need one thing to do with inflation, so maybe LTT’s will correlate with equities once more, since Inflation got here again.
I do not know why you assume the elemental level of bonds (their promised money move) is simply essential when legal responsibility matching on mounted bills? That makes zero sense, since 1) it is their basic motive for present and a pair of) Inflation protected bonds exist.
Whether or not wealthy or poor, a younger lady ought to understand how a checking account works, perceive the composition of mortgages and bonds, and know the worth of curiosity and the way it accumulates. -Hetty Inexperienced
Re: The New 60/40
betablocker wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 7:46 pm
It’s true that the money flows are assured however that solely issues for legal responsibility matching on mounted bills. Nearly all folks must pay for issues which are topic to inflation so I’d kindly recommend you reexamine your understanding.
I must pay for issues which are topic to inflation. That is a part of why I personal TIPS. The inflation-adjusted assured money move of TIPS is actually not solely related to mounted bills.
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Re: The New 60/40
Post
by firebirdparts »
Lawyered_ wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 4:08 pmCarol88888 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 2:21 pm
I hate it . Particularly the hedged fund futures. Hedge funds don’t outperform the S&P after bills. Buffett proved that together with his wager to my satisfaction. I do not know a lot about managed futures however I believe you might need expense points there as effectively together with how this stuff get taxed.If there’s one factor I’ve realized from these boards it is that easier is best. Do not over assume it.
It isn’t Hedged Fund futures. It’s development following through managed futures. Here’s a simulation of RSST since 1992 utilizing KMLM as a proxy. RSST is 100% SPY and 100% Managed Futures.
Okay you’ve gotten my consideration, however with the log chart I discovered it simply tracked shares for the final 25 years. That appears unattainable. I’m a MLM skeptic however even I do know within the simulation it needs to be higher than that.
This time is similar