Projecting the 2025 NFL draft order: Will the Panthers, Broncos or Giants be at No. 1?

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September 17, 2024

The 2024 NFL season is simply getting began, however it’s by no means too early to consider the 2025 draft, which begins on April 24 in Inexperienced Bay, Wisconsin. Let’s check out the projected first-round draft order for all 32 groups utilizing ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).

Each week through the season, the FPI initiatives the draft order by simulating the rest of the season 20,000 instances. Sport chances are based mostly largely on the mannequin’s scores for particular person groups along with recreation places. The order is predicated on the data the mannequin believes the groups could have after 17 video games and every group’s common draft place within the simulations.

Our FPI predictions nonetheless have the Carolina Panthers with the very best likelihood to safe the primary decide, however there was a shift in different prime picks. Who’s the brand new No. 2 after two weeks of play? Which two playoff groups from final season at the moment are within the prime 10? Try our full projections beneath, and examine again each Tuesday for updates all through the season.

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Common draft place: 5.0
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 23.4%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 67.6%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 88%

Common draft place: 5.8
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 18.8%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 61.5%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 84%

Common draft place: 6.1
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 17.9%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 58.8%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 82.3%

Common draft place: 8.9
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 7.8%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 40.1%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 67.6%

Common draft place: 10.4
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 4.3%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 29.7%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 58.6%

Common draft place: 10.6
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 3.6%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 27.1%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 55.3%

Common draft place: 11.3
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 4.3%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 28.4%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 55%

Common draft place: 11.5
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 3.2%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 25.2%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 52.1%

Common draft place: 11.7
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 3.9%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 25.7%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 52.4%

Common draft place: 12.1
FPI likelihood to earn No. 1 decide: 2.7%
FPI likelihood to earn top-five decide: 22.1%
FPI likelihood to earn top-10 decide: 47.9%