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And the solo chief of the AFC North after Week 1 is (drumroll please), the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Sure, after kicking six area targets to beat the Falcons 18-10, the Steelers (1-0), a staff that was a preferred choose to complete final within the division and with no definitive starter at quarterback, at present sit alone atop the AFC North, a division that was the perfect within the NFL final season — and perhaps the perfect in all the 4 main North American sports activities final 12 months. The Ravens (who have been the division favorites coming into the season), Browns and Bengals all misplaced, leaving the AFC North upside-down.
Granted, the 2024 NFL season is just one week previous, however the outcomes from the season’s opening week ought to have no less than two of the AFC North groups involved, in response to the SportsLine Projection Mannequin.
No AFC North staff is extra underneath stress in Week 2 than Cincinnati. Quarterback Joe Burrow and the Bengals shockingly misplaced 16-10 to the Patriots as 7.5-point favorites in Week 1, torpedoing many survivor pool gamers. Cincinnati was restricted to only 234 yards of whole offense whereas permitting 170 dashing yards to a New England staff that received simply 4 video games final season and was projected to be one of many worst within the AFC.
The loss, mixed with different scheduled opponents taking part in higher than their preseason expectations (specifically the Chargers, Cowboys, Steelers, Eagles and Chiefs) lower the Bengals’ playoff possibilities virtually in half, from 53% to 27%, in response to the SportsLine Projection Mannequin. The mannequin — which simulates each NFL recreation 10,000 occasions and is up nicely over $7,000 for $100 gamers on top-rated NFL picks since its inception — tasks Cincinnati to win simply 8.1 video games this season, down from 9.4 previous to Week 1.
Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal knowledge engineer and the person behind the mannequin, says the Bengals already face a close to must-win recreation this week on the Chiefs if the staff hopes to make the playoffs. Cincinnati is a 6-point underdog in opposition to the two-time defending Super Bowl champions.
“The Bengals’ season might be immediately revived or principally finish in Week 2 relying on in the event that they win and the Ravens lose in opposition to Las Vegas or vice versa,” Oh says.
In the meantime in Cleveland, the Browns are looking for solutions after a Week 1 no-show in opposition to the Cowboys, shedding 33-17. The excellent news for Cleveland is that, by shedding to an NFC staff slightly than an AFC staff, the Browns’ playoff possibilities didn’t drop as a lot because it might have, right down to 29% from 42% previous to the season, in response to the mannequin.
The unhealthy information is that the Myles Garrett-led protection continues to underperform.
“The Browns have been proud about being the No. 1 protection final season in yards allowed per recreation, however their final three opponents have scored 31, 45 and 33 factors,” Oh says. “Is that this probably the most overrated nice protection ever?”
Baltimore (0-1) stays the favourite to win the division regardless of shedding in Week 1 on the Chiefs, ending atop the division 49.7% of the time in response to the mannequin’s simulations. Nevertheless, the Ravens’ loss to Kansas Metropolis negatively impacted their probabilities of successful the Tremendous Bowl, because the defeat considerably decreased their probabilities of incomes the No. 1 seed (and accompanying first-round bye and home-field benefit) for the playoffs. Baltimore wins the Tremendous Bowl simply 8.9% of the time within the simulations, which is down from greater than 12% previous to Week 1.
Nonetheless, meaning the +1200 worth on the Ravens to win the Tremendous Bowl at DraftKings, which means a 7.7% likelihood, represents virtually +2 proportion factors of worth.
This week, Baltimore hosts Las Vegas and is a 9.5-point favourite.
“A win at residence in opposition to the Raiders will not assist Baltimore a lot, however a loss would drop them massively the identical approach a nasty residence loss to the Patriots crushed the Bengals,” Oh says.
As for the Steelers, the present division leaders have only a 28.1% likelihood to win the AFC North, which ranks second to solely the Ravens, in response to the mannequin. However that’s considerably greater than Pittsburgh’s possibilities previous to the season, which sat at simply 4.0%.
As for Week 2, the SportsLine Projection Mannequin is asking for a detailed recreation between the Steelers and Denver Broncos. Nevertheless, that recreation is not one of many three with A-grade picks primarily based on mannequin simulations for Week 2. You possibly can find those top-tier Week 2 NFL picks at SportsLine.
