NFL Week 1 betting by the numbers: Survivor chaos and a six-figure guess saved in Miami

Circa Survivor, a high-stakes NFL betting contest hosted by a Las Vegas on line casino, has a $1,000 buy-in and a $14.2 million grand prize. This 12 months’s competitors, which requires contestants to select an outright NFL winner every week of the season, attracted a document 14,266 entries. By the beginning of the 4 p.m. video games, a lot of them have been left shocked.

4,895: Entries eradicated for siding with Cincinnati

Forty-five contestants did not submit their Week 1 choice by the deadline. Roughly one-third of the sphere took the Cincinnati Bengals, the preferred choose of the day. All of them have been eradicated within the opening week of the season.

The New England Patriots, 7.5-point highway underdogs, topped the Bengals 16-10 within the greatest Week 1 upset (when it comes to level unfold) since 2018. It was pricey, not just for survivor pool contestants, but additionally for the betting public usually. Extra bets have been positioned — and more cash was wagered — on the Bengals to win this sport outright than some other workforce at each ESPN BET and DraftKings.

“It was important,” Craig Mucklow, vp of buying and selling at Caesars Sportsbook, mentioned of the Patriots pulling off the upset. “Clearly, you get the largest favourite on the board beat straight-up in Week 1, that is a superb begin for the guide.”

Sportsbooks pegged New England as one of many worst groups within the league getting into the season. The over/beneath on the Patriots’ win complete this season was set at 4.5, the bottom of any workforce. Roughly 90% of the cash wagered on New England’s win complete was on the beneath at BetMGM. Nevertheless, regardless of the opening upset, expectations for the Patriots stay low.

“Everybody’s writing off the Patriots, together with us,” Mucklow advised ESPN on Sunday. “We’ll be Patriots followers each week.”

The Patriots are actually +750 to make the playoffs at ESPN BET.

130: Tyreek Hill‘s complete receiving yards within the Miami Dolphins win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, most of any participant on Sunday

Hill made headlines earlier than any video games kicked off Sunday when he was detained by police and cited with reckless driving, per ESPN’s Jeff Darlington. The Dolphins huge receiver went on to place up one in every of Sunday’s greatest performances, a lot to the advantage of many bettors.

Within the hours earlier than kickoff, Hill was ESPN BET’s most guess participant to attain a landing and the second-most guess for all different props at over 80-plus receiving yards, trailing solely Trevor Lawrence‘s over 200 passing yards. At BetMGM, Hill garnered the second-most tickets to attain a landing at -125 odds.

It took till the second half, however Hill in the end delivered for bettors, hauling in an 80-yard TD reception within the third quarter to immediately money each props. His last receiving yards tally was additionally sufficient to cowl most alternate traces.

.527: Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin’s straight-up document as a betting underdog

Tomlin is the one coach within the Tremendous Bowl period to have a profitable document as an underdog (min. 30 video games). Would the wins preserve coming in 2024?

The Steelers entered the season with doubts at quarterback, which have been solely amplified when beforehand named beginning QB Russell Wilson was compelled to the inactive record for Sunday’s highway opener towards the Atlanta Falcons as a result of a calf damage. Tomlin turned to Justin Fields for the beginning, which shifted the road from Steelers +3.5 to Steelers +4 or +4.5, relying on the sportsbook.

“Coming into the season, Wilson and Fields have been seen as largely interchangeable, with Wilson considered as barely extra priceless,” a buying and selling spokesperson for ESPN BET advised ESPN. “General, there wasn’t a big adjustment given the outlook for the Steelers in the present day and the quantity of variables for each groups coming into the week.”

All the identical, the Falcons have been a scorching commodity within the betting markets, attracting the fifth-most unfold tickets at ESPN BET and the Eleventh-most deal with at DraftKings. Atlanta additionally had 72% of unfold deal with at BetMGM and 51% at FanDuel.

However, Tomlin labored his underdog magic as soon as once more, profitable an 18-10 battle for the Steelers — a low scoring sport that additionally cashed the beneath at 41.5, one of many most-bet unders of the day at BetMGM.

72.7: proportion of bets made on Dallas Cowboys at ESPN BET

Sure, at ESPN BET, 72.7% of bets and 71.6% of the whole quantity wagered have been on the Cowboys to cowl the unfold as small underdogs. Dak Prescott adopted up his signing of a reported $240 million contract extension by main the Cowboys to a 33-17 win over the favored Cleveland Browns.

“Dallas was a really public facet within the afternoon,” John Murray, government director of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, advised ESPN. “They acquired us on that sport.”

The betting public additionally fared nicely on the Thursday and Friday standalone video games, in line with sportsbooks. The Kansas City Chiefs coated the unfold in a 27-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday, and the Philadelphia Eagles coated the unfold in a 34-29 win over the Green Bay Packers on Friday.

“(Friday) was a [disaster],” Joe Brennan, government chairman for Prime Sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey, advised ESPN. “We acquired beat on each pregame and dwell, although many of the injury was on the pregame cash line and unfold. We misplaced on all the things for the sport. Ouch.”

The remainder of Week 1, by the numbers

+1000: Josh Allen‘s odds to win MVP

This was earlier than he threw for 232 yards and two touchdowns, dashing for an extra 39 yards and two scores within the Buffalo Bills‘ win over the Arizona Cardinals. The large efficiency vaulted him to +550 at ESPN BET, the place he’s now the second favourite behind Patrick Mahomes (+375).

$302,000: Largest reported guess on Sunday at Caesars Sportsbook

This guess was on the Dolphins -2.5 over the Jaguars. The bettor purchased the purpose unfold down from 3.5 to 2.5 at a value of -151, which was a savvy transfer because it seems. The Dolphins gained 20-17. In response to Caesars, the identical bettor positioned a $178,000 money-line guess on the Dolphins at -178 odds and netted a $300,000 revenue on the 2 wagers.

-5.5: Opening level unfold on the Monday night time matchup between the favored San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets

The road opened on Might 20 at ESPN BET and has ticked down towards the Jets. As of Sunday night time, the 49ers have been 3.5-point favorites.

-4.5: Early Week 2 line favoring the Packers over the visiting Indianapolis Colts

Nevertheless, this was earlier than Inexperienced Bay quarterback Jordan Love went down with a knee damage late towards the Eagles in Week 1. When the road was re-posted, with Love dominated out with a sprained MCL and backup Malik Willis anticipated to begin, the Colts have been 3-point favorites.

A spokesperson for ESPN BET mentioned the distinction between Love and Willis was “a few landing.”

Joey Feazel, sports activities dealer for Caesars Sportsbook, mentioned he believes the adjustment to the road was an overreaction and provides, “I count on it to return again down [toward Packers] by sport time.”

3: Variety of outright wins by underdogs in Week 1

Favorites went solely a mixed 8-7 towards the unfold, with eight overs and 7 unders. The three canines to win outright have been Cowboys (+2) over Browns, Steelers (+4.5) over Falcons and Patriots (+7.5) over Bengals.