In 2019, we predicted who could be the highest gamers in 2024. How’d we do?

In the summertime of 2019 — once we weren’t heading to the theaters to look at “Avengers: Endgame” or staying house to look at the ultimate season of “The Good Place” — the crew at NBC Sports activities basketball determined to reply a easy query:

Who could be the most effective gamers in the summertime of 2024?

It could be a easy query, however there have been no simple solutions. In hindsight, we had loads of hits but in addition had a trio of big misses. The group of us on the time — myself, Dan Feldman, Tom Haberstroh and Rob Dauster — agreed on some, disagreed on others and in the end settled on this listing.

Projected prime 10 gamers of 2024:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. Anthony Davis
3. Luka Doncic
4 Nikola Jokic
5. Zion Williamson
6. Kawhi Leonard
7. Karl-Anthony Towns
8. Donovan Mitchell
9. Ben Simmons
10. Trae Young

Let’s begin with the errors, the three huge misses from this listing, and all primarily for a similar purpose — we thought age would hit them more durable.

• LeBron James. We thought his expertise and bodily situation would erode way over they did, so he was ranked fortieth (simply earlier than the season when he turned 40). We thought he is likely to be retired by now, we didn’t predict one other ring, one other Finals MVP and 5 extra All-NBA seasons that have been nonetheless forward of him again in 2019. LeBron proved us very improper, and that longevity of high-level play is an enormous a part of his GOAT case.

• Kevin Durant. He was down at No. 29 as a result of “Durant is on the improper aspect of 30 and has a torn Achilles.” We underestimated his restoration. Durant bounced again higher than we’d have envisioned on the time, however in hindsight rating him one spot again of D’Angelo Russell (28) appears silly. (Additionally, rating Russell twenty eighth was one in every of our uglier errors.)

• Stephen Curry. He was ranked thirty first, though writing on him for this undertaking Tom Haberstroh mentioned, “I really feel like the most effective shooter ever deserves the next spot on this listing.” He’d argued for that, and in the end Tom was proper. The vast majority of us thought his expertise would fade extra shortly with time, we did not see a 2022 championship the place he was named Finals MVP.

• The ugliest choose within the prime 10? Ben Simmons at No. 9. It speaks to how extremely he was projected to go simply 5 years in the past — once we made this listing he was coming off his first All-Star season and having received Rookie of the 12 months the season earlier than. The 2019-20 season after this listing got here out was Simmons’ finest one, making an All-NBA crew, First Group All-Protection and he was an All-Star. When issues fell aside for Simmons, they fell quick, by June of 2021 he was passing up a dunk within the playoffs and everyone knows what adopted. We didn’t see that coming.

• The highest 4 are fairly good, and whereas second is slightly excessive for Anthony Davis he belongs within the prime 10.

• Zion Williamson and Kawhi Leonard at 5/6 may need been spot on if each had stayed — or might keep — wholesome. Alas, they didn’t.

• Cities, Mitchell and Younger definitely should not prime 10 gamers however these do not feel like wild misses.

Projected remainder of prime 25:

11. Joel Embiid
12. Jayson Tatum
13. Devin Booker
14. De’Aaron Fox
15. Jamal Murray
16. Jaren Jackson Jr.
17. Bradley Beal
18. James Harden
19. Kristaps Porzingis
20. Pascal Siakam
21. Deandre Ayton
22. Ja Morant
23. Kyrie Irving
24. John Collins
25. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

• That Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was twenty fifth exhibits how a lot he exceeded expectations — everybody knew he’d be good (Doc Rivers will likely be completely happy to inform you about it), however not MVP-level good. Credit score to him for the work put in and the expansion.

• Additionally exceeding expectations was Joel Embiid, who could be prime 5 (in all probability prime 3) if we have been rating the most effective gamers at present — he stayed basically wholesome the previous couple of seasons and has been a dominant power.

• Jayson Tatum additionally exceeded expectations; simply do not inform Steve Kerr that.

• One of many hardest components of this was making an attempt to undertaking out highschool and faculty gamers. For instance, we did not have Anthony Edwards on the listing — he was on the point of begin his one season at Georgia and wasn’t on our radar, a minimum of to not change into the participant he has grown into. Victor Wembanyama was extra like a whisper, a rumor of an enormous child in France with some expertise, we did not have any thought on the time what he would change into.

The one excessive schooler to make the highest 50, the one we anticipated to interrupt out? Emoni Bates.

• The expectation was that Harden and Beal would fall off some with age, however that decline with Beal could also be steeper than we anticipated. It’ll be fascinating to see how he bounces again and suits in with Durant and Booker this season in Phoenix.

• We have been larger on John Collins than we should always have been.

• Jaren Jackson Jr. is larger on our listing than he could be on a rating of the most effective gamers within the recreation, however he did win Defensive Participant of the 12 months simply a few years in the past. He is poised to have an enormous bounce-back season, together with Ja Morant — who needs to be larger on this listing if wholesome.