Consultants' picks: Who will win the 2024 US Open males's title?

On Sunday, Taylor Fritz will face off in opposition to Jannik Sinner within the US Open males’s remaining (2 p.m. ET ABC; ESPN+). Sinner is ranked No. 1 on the planet and received the Australian Open title earlier this yr, whereas Fritz is enjoying in his first Grand Slam remaining. Can Fritz by some means pull off the upset? Our specialists weigh in.

What can Fritz do to defeat Sinner?

Brad Gilbert: Fritz has to serve rather well and take some probabilities on his second serve, combining the serve together with his forehand to manage the rallies. From the impartial rallies, he wants be daring with the forehand.

D’Arcy Maine: It is easy: Play the most effective match of his life.

I am solely type of joking. However what struck me most about Fritz’s five-set win over Frances Tiafoe on Friday night time was his potential to remain in it, it doesn’t matter what. Even when momentum and the group have been on Tiafoe’s facet, Fritz simply stored combating and doing no matter he may to provide himself an opportunity. He took management within the fourth set and confirmed the identical psychological power we have seen all event in opposition to a number of high-quality opponents together with Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev.

However Sinner is the world No. 1 for a cause and arguably the most effective hard-court participant on tour in the mean time. There can be little room for error for Fritz, and he can not permit himself to have momentary lags like he did in opposition to Tiafoe. All the things — his massive serve, his motion, his highly effective hitting — will have to be as near flawless as doable.

play

Taylor Fritz defeats Frances Tiafoe to advance to males’s US Open remaining

Taylor Fritz defeats Frances Tiafoe in 5 units to face Jannik Sinner within the males’s US Open remaining.

Invoice Connelly: Return like he has by no means returned earlier than. Fritz has received three of 5 all-time units with Sinner, however they have not performed since Indian Wells 2023, earlier than Sinner’s 2024 breakthrough. And with every passing yr, Sinner’s serve has grown increasingly more efficient. He entered the US Open having held serve 91.7% of the time in 2024, tied with Matteo Berrettini for the most effective common within the ATP high 50.

Fritz began slowly in New York, however over his previous 4 matches he has held serve 91.8% of the time. He has discovered his rhythm, and he’ll should make absolutely the a lot of the break alternatives he will get. That, or attempt to win tiebreakers in opposition to a man who virtually by no means loses tiebreakers.

Ohm Youngmisuk: Fritz has to serve the most important he has all event. After enjoying an emotional five-setter in opposition to Tiafoe, Fritz should by some means be the fitter and stronger participant on the finish, as he was in opposition to Tiafoe. He has to chase down as many balls as doable and keep away from the Sinner forehand!

He cannot let Sinner get in a consolation zone. Sinner can take opponents out of their sport, even making the methodical Daniil Medvedev look out of sync. Fritz cannot lose his focus. However greater than anything, Fritz has to provide the most important crowd he has ever had behind him causes to get into the match. He has to make this match really feel prefer it’s two-on-one and get the group going.

What can Sinner do to defeat Fritz?

Gilbert: He wants his first-serve accuracy to arrange his first shot to dominate the rallies. He additionally must proceed dominating the center of court docket — what he has been doing all event lengthy, and to make massive progress on his second-serve return.

Maine: Sinner arrived in New York dealing with severe scrutiny after it was revealed he had examined constructive for a banned substance twice in March — and but, regardless of any discomfort in being repeatedly requested about it, Sinner has been the most effective participant within the draw. His highly effective forehand is just about unmatched. So whereas the group will definitely be closely behind Fritz, it is exhausting to see that fazing Sinner all that a lot. Heck, he did not even appear that thrown off as Jack Draper vomited a number of instances (!) on court docket of their semifinal match.

Sinner received his earlier assembly with Fritz — at Indian Wells in 2023 — and he is a considerably higher and extra in-form participant now. This time they will be assembly on a quicker court docket, and Sinner has since received a significant title on the Australian Open. He might want to play the identical sport that propelled him to the title in Cincinnati final month and into the ultimate in New York, and faucet into his expertise from the ultimate in Melbourne, with a view to earn his first US Open title.

play

Jannik Sinner advances to US Open males’s remaining

Jannik Sinner defeats Jack Draper as each males needed to labor by way of a terrific three-set match on the US Open.

Connelly: Grind, as all the time. Fritz has finished such a very good job of addressing his weakest hyperlinks and crafting an virtually weakness-free sport. He is good on quick factors, he is received an awesome serve, and he has improved his return sport dramatically. However he is nonetheless not wonderful in lengthy factors, and whereas Sinner can actually pummel the ball with the most effective of them, leaning on sufferball as a Plan B can also be usually a winner for him. And his superior Plan B is what has put him on the verge of his second Slam title of 2024.

Youngmisuk: Sinner is probably the most effective ball striker within the sport, and so stable throughout. If his left wrist is OK after he took a spill within the semis, Sinner can be extremely powerful to beat. He has proven that he is not unstoppable, as Medvedev took a set off him at 6-1 of their quarterfinal match. Maybe greater than something, Sinner should overcome two opponents — Fritz and an Arthur Ashe crowd that can attempt to will Fritz to develop into the primary American man since Andy Roddick in 2003 to win.

Who will win?

Maine: Sinner. Whereas Fritz snapping the American males’s 21-year main title drought at residence could be legendary, it is exhausting to suppose the stress of that will not meet up with him. And in opposition to Sinner, he merely cannot afford to have weaknesses or moments of vulnerability. The Italian wins it in 4 units.

Connelly: Sinner in 4 units. He is simply so good proper now. He hits with practically excellent energy and depth, he can grind and undergo, and he is composed sufficient to deal with what ought to be a partisan crowd. The wrist is a priority, and Fritz has been in good type for a lot of the previous two weeks, however it’s virtually inconceivable to select in opposition to the world No. 1.

Youngmisuk: If Sinner can block the group out and play his sport, he ought to be capable to be part of Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Mats Wilander as the one males to win each the Australian Open and US Open in the identical yr because the Aussie switched to exhausting courts. And this US Open win would give him another Slam this yr than Carlos Alcaraz and Djokovic, and cement him as the most effective on the planet this yr.

The betting perspective

Pamela Maldonado: Taylor Fritz +5 video games vs. Jannik Sinner

Fritz has been showcasing wonderful tennis, defeating high gamers like Ruud and Zverev en path to the ultimate, together with a bodily demanding five-set victory over fellow American Tiafoe within the semifinal.

Fritz’s sport is constructed round his highly effective serve and the “serve-plus-one” mixture together with his flat forehand. His improved footwork has been a standout characteristic, permitting him to shortly get into place after serving to hit sturdy follow-up pictures.

This enhancement in motion has enabled him to cowl extra court docket successfully, attain balls he would possibly in any other case miss and arrange for pictures extra effectively. It additionally permits him to increase rallies by discovering angles and depth from the baseline, ready for the suitable alternative to hit winners, as demonstrated by the essential 31-shot rally in opposition to Tiafoe late within the fourth set.

Fritz’s serve has been notably spectacular. He is main the ATP Tour in first-serve factors received at 78.8% over the previous yr. This consistency has carried over into his US Open efficiency, the place he has been mixing up his serve with completely different speeds and placements, making it troublesome for opponents to learn.

Regardless of coming off a grueling match in opposition to Tiafoe, Fritz seems to be in good bodily situation. In distinction, Sinner skilled a wrist damage throughout his semifinal match in opposition to Jack Draper. These components counsel Fritz has the potential to compete at a excessive stage in opposition to Sinner all through his first main remaining. The over 39 video games can also be a stable possibility.