See Trump and Harris' paths to 270 electoral votes — and build your own

With two months left in their presidential bids, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris continue their hunt for votes with just under one point difference between their biggest victories – in North Carolina by Trump; and North Carolina by Harris (with only 0.14 percentage point margin between their wins). Not much divided these states at last election, which could create some unexpected trends and combinations this time. Check out Harris’ direct path through the Great Lakes here, while Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have consistently supported Democrats since 1992 (excluding one election ). Polls showed the Democratic ticket performing better in these three states compared with Sun Belt battleground states even before Harris took his place on the ticket. Trump’s polling gains this year can be explained, at least partially, by younger and nonwhite (particularly Hispanic) voters being less prevalent in these states than they once were. All Harris needs to do to secure her victory is hold onto this trio (without any unexpected upsets elsewhere) and avoid surprises elsewhere – and she will receive enough electoral votes to reach her target threshold of 270 electoral votes. Check out Harris’ potential scenario here! Donald Trump’s Direct Path Through Sun BeltThis election cycle, Trump has run stronger in Georgia and Arizona than in northern battleground states such as Wisconsin or Virginia. Harris’ success with nonwhite voters owes much of its success to her success among Latino voters – particularly younger Latino voters – since entering the race. Harris has gained ground among this voting bloc since joining and could open her path into Sun Belt states such as Arizona or Tennessee. Trump would need only minimal changes in Georgia and Arizona (where he lost by less than 12,000 votes last time), to become president once more. If he can do that successfully (without missteps in North Carolina), all Trump needs is one or more of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania as states to win election. 2020 Wisconsin was Trump’s closest race, falling by approximately 20,000 votes. To reach 268 electoral votes he would need North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada all to switch sides to his side; see here for that scenario. To reach an electoral tie Trump increased spending in North Carolina after Harris became his leading contender, yet even in the unlikely event he falls short and Harris becomes the first Democrat since 2008 to win it, Trump still has an avenue towards victory by breaking through Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as in 2016. No longer would all seven key battleground states swing in tandem, since Biden won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin while losing North Carolina; even if Trump wins three key battleground states- Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin for example- then Arizona or Georgia would still need to fall for him to secure victory without North Carolina (See scenario here). Also see: Can Harris Win Without Pennsylvania Harris may get to 270 electoral votes even if she loses in some Great Lakes states like Wisconsin and Michigan (15 electoral votes and 19 electoral votes respectively) where polling remains close, thanks to this expanded Democratic map. If Donald Trump were to win both Michigan (15 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) where polling remains close he could easily achieve victory bringing Harris within reach of winning an unprecedented total 270 electoral votes for president in 2028. Harris can still surpass 270 electoral votes by winning Georgia (16 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes) and North Carolina (16 electoral votes). If she loses Nevada as well, Arizona with its 11 electoral votes may help make up the difference. Again, this scenario relies upon states changing dramatically between 2020 and now; yet given how closely their populations were distributed back then, who is to say their populations haven’t changed enough since to create unexpected results? See here and more information regarding what a dream election night would look like for Trump or Harris.