2024 NFL Week 1 Picks: Eagles defeat Packers in Brazil thriller while Dolphins dominate Jaguars

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to Season 12 of my NFL picks. Since it is Week 1 for 2024 season we will conduct my favored “Week 1 exercise”, informing all my readers on my offseason performance. If you’re new here, this part of my picks tends to get overlooked due to my seemingly mundane life. Except this year – that is until my wife and I welcomed a baby together! Suddenly the entire universe seems brighter! Does that mean no sleep for three months now? Absolutely yes; does that mean being able to smell colors now too? Absolutely yes. Will my baby influence my NFL picks in any way? At this stage, that remains to be determined; my theory suggests otherwise based on spending most of my paternity leave studying the new kickoff rule and researching it further during those 9-weeks offseason paternity leave. Let me be clear, other than changing diapers, nothing beats my expertise on the new kickoff rule than knowing all there is to know about it. Now that I am an expert, I know everything there is about the NFL’s secrets – as well as who will win this year’s Super Bowl! Who Will It Be in 2024 NFL Season? That is an intriguing question and the easiest way to answer it would be by visiting my predictions for all 32 Teams’ final record predictions as well as who I think should make playoffs and go on to Win Super Bowl 50? Simply click here!
If you click over to my predictions page, we will wait for your return before proceeding with our Week 1 picks. NFL Week 1 Picks8:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)The last time these teams met on the field together was back in January in the AFC Championship game. Yes, the Chiefs won, but most of that victory can be attributed to Baltimore having what may have been one of the worst offensive game plans ever deployed by any NFL franchise. “That may seem exaggerated when considering that the NFL has existed since 1920; but I will not be persuaded otherwise. The Ravens finished 2023 as one of the NFL’s leading rushing offenses, so running against Chiefs made sense; but instead of doing that they decided on doing just the opposite; running backs from Ravens picked up SIX CARRIES! That is crazy-pants. Three of those runs came during the first quarter, covering 16 yards on three attempts; however, Ravens coach John Harbaugh decided that an average 5.3 average yards per rush wasn’t good enough and instead tried winning through having Lamar Jackson throw 37 times to win game instead of going back to running game strategy.
Not running the ball made no logical sense – imagine Steph Curry hitting five 3-pointers in an opening quarter, only for Steve Kerr to then forbid any future 3-point shots during that game! People at home would likely be scratching their heads as I did during the final three quarters of Ravens vs. Chiefs. I scratched so hard I believe claw marks remain on my scalp! All of this should serve as a warning that Baltimore won’t repeat previous errors in future matches. Last season, the Ravens boasted one of the premier rushing offenses in NFL, and this year made it even stronger by adding Derrick Henry. Since Henry was playing on an unsuccessful Titans team last season, you might not have realized he still managed to finish second-most rushing yards in the NFL even with every team loading up to stop him. Henry has enjoyed an unparalleled NFL career; no team he’s steamrolled more often than Kansas City Chiefs: Henry has averaged 112 yards per game against them — the MOST any opponent.
Picking against the Chiefs makes me look silly every time, yet here I go again. The Ravens will come out looking to take down Mahomes and his Chiefs this time around; and in fact they do show some vulnerability against non-divisional opponents: in 2018, Mahomes started just five home prime-time games at home against non-divisional foes compared with five against divisional ones at prime-time at Arrowhead Stadium (same as above). Pick: Ravens 23-20 over Chiefs8:15 p.m. ET (Peacock)For the first time ever, NFL will host an international matchup in Brazil. “Fast Five,” my only movie ever to take place there as an extra, has cemented my status as an authority on both Brazil and NFL media alike. Oh yes! : I played a train passenger!
No one could argue this was the definitive performance by any train passenger actor; nonetheless, I believe this performance to rank amongst the finest ever seen on screen.
At any rate, this game stands out by exclusively airing on Peacock. But no need to fret if you don’t subscribe – simply follow along using X (formerly Twitter), although Brazil has banned that particular service!
So it appears we will all just listen together on the radio for this game; just like old times. On paper, one of the key mismatches in this matchup should come down to Jordan Love against an Eagles secondary that allowed second most passing yards last season. Philadelphia did draft two rookies this season in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean but only time will tell how effective these rookies will be at helping; I can at least state they can’t possibly perform worse than Philadelphia had last season!
At running back, there has been the greatest transformation. Both teams made changes this offseason; one by adding Josh Jacobs from Wisconsin while Philadelphia signed Saquon Barkley. Barkley will have an outsized impact in this game due to the Packers defense having to focus on not getting burned by A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith or Dallas Goedert and thus giving Barkley ample running room. Brown and Smith could both benefit if the Packers focus their defense on stopping the run; unfortunately, my only real issue with their chances in Friday’s matchup will be having to play with an unfamiliar kicker who’s yet to attempt any field goals in regular-season play. As I don’t trust rookie kickers as much as Jake Elliott, so my pick will be for the Eagles by three. 1pm ET (Fox). My goal for this matchup has been to pick the team with whom I have more trust for their quarterback; let me just tell you, though; 51 hours has gone by and nothing has worked yet!
On Atlanta’s side of this matchup is a 36-year-old coming off an Achilles tear while Pittsburgh boasts an eight-time Super Bowl winning quarterback who may or may not know how to play football anymore. What quarterback will win: Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson? Both were drafted in 2012; it will mark the first time ever two quarterbacks with at least 12 years experience are facing each other for their respective new teams in a debut match-up like this – I only brought up this fun fact so that I could decide between these two; I think my preference goes towards Cousins over Wilson!
Cousins isn’t known for holding grudges or playing with a chip on his shoulder; but after seeing Michael Penix Jr. get selected by Atlanta Falcons this offseason I believe Cousins might play with one. Cousins will face tremendous pressure as soon as Week 1 rolls around, as Falcons fans could demand his benching from them and put an immediate strain on his performance. He must step up big time right from the get-go or they may demand for him to be removed as their starter immediately after Week 1. If Cousins has an off game against Pittsburgh, Atlanta fans could call for Penix to start instead of Cousins. As Cousins’ situation illustrates, facing T.J. Watt would likely not be considered ideal when returning from injury – such is his impactful play and I wouldn’t wish for any player else than Cousins in this game to go up against Watt! I wouldn’t want to be him this week! However, Atlanta provides Cousins with all of the tools to succeed and while his performance may not be spectacular on Sunday afternoon, I believe he does just enough for Atlanta to pull away with an upset victory at 20-17 over Steelers (1 p.m. ET). My prediction: Falcons 20-17. When facing off against a quarterback selected with the top overall pick in Week 1, an effective strategy should be to pick against him. Since 2003, 15 quarterbacks selected with this pick have gone winless in their debut games; such a figure should come as no shocker! Typically, the top pick goes to the worst team in the league – which often finds itself an underdog come Week 1. But that wasn’t necessarily the case this year as Carolina traded away its pick to Chicago Bears who are actually an above-average team.
Williams could become the first quarterback ever drafted in the top five to inherit TWO receivers who each recently produced 1,200-yard seasons (Keenan Allen and DJ Moore). Plus, Bears roster includes Cole Kmet, Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift for more offensive options. No Bears QB has ever thrown for more than 4,000 yards in any season; but Williams could easily hit that number this year. Defensively, don’t underestimate them (or should I say hibernate?). Don’t sleep on them (or is that “hibernate?). From Week 10, last season’s Bears went 5-3 down the stretch; and one big reason was due to only surrendering 17.1 points per game from Week 10-18 (lowest average among NFL defenses). Though I like the Titans more, by tradition I must pick the Bears because their appearance on HBO’s Hard Knocks team seems to influence me into believing they will perform well this season.
Bears 19-16 over Titans on CBS at 1 PM This game will take place in Miami; I mention this fact solely to highlight Mike McDaniel as being someone who fully embraces its lifestyle.
The guy on the left cannot beat solid teams or win key playoff games; on the other hand, their opponent on the right will lead the Dolphins directly into Super Bowl 53. No one should pick against Mike McDaniel any time soon as his performance in Weeks 1-3 of this season has been near unbeatable. Since McDaniel took over coaching duties of Miami in 2022, they’ve started off the season undefeated in three games while outscoring opponents by an average of 13 points per contest en route to victory. The Dolphins feature an aggressive offense that’s hard to prepare for, making their performance all the more surprising for a Jaguars defense that may suffer 57 delay-of-game penalties due to not knowing who will call their plays yet.
Doug! Game time is almost here and now is the time for decision. Both quarterbacks in this matchup (Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence) received significant contract extensions during this offseason; should either of them lose, they’ll instantly face criticism for failing to live up to their contracts. As previously indicated, I will pick against McDaniel by picking for the Dolphins – something Kevin Harlan, Trent Green and Melanie Collins from CBS will call. McDaniel has never lost with them calling his game! Since the start of 2022 season, Kevin Trent and Melanie have led Miami Dolphins to seven straight victories with an average scoring margin of 37.00 points per game – suggesting Stephen Ross should consider hiring them permanently as announcers for Miami team games. Their performance could see Miami finish ahead of Jaguars 34-24 at 8:20 p.m. The pick: Dolphins 34-24 over Jaguars. This game could easily serve as an NFC Championship prelude, and I’m not just saying this because that was what I predicted in my 2024 season preview (read it here). OK, perhaps I said it because that was in my preview; perhaps just to plug my book again! Once again, my preview demonstrates my strong opinions of both teams; specifically I anticipate the Rams finishing with the best record in the NFCI with Jared Goff as my dark-horse MVP candidate and one or both making their way into Super Bowl LIII. Unfortunately I love both these teams equally this year so don’t want to pick either side in this game as that would force me into choosing one over the other! Picking one child over another has never made more sense to me as an analogy than when applied to my two kids! Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit for another game after eight months’ absence – this time though I believe he may actually win this time! A big plus for the Rams this season has been that all their key players appear healthy; something which wasn’t always true last season. Only eight games saw Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams take to the field together last season. Stafford produced 18 touchdown passes against just 3 interceptions for six wins over that span for Los Angeles Rams. After going down against Detroit last season during playoffs and failing to capture victory there since his trade to Los Angeles back in 2021, Stafford would no doubt welcome any opportunity he gets at winning IN Detroit – something still lacking since moving westward. My pick: Rams 30-27 over Lions (Monday 8:20 p.m). It appears the NFL scheduling department’s goal for Week 1 of this season is to induce Aaron Rodgers with some form of posttraumatic stress disorder; there would otherwise be no reason for them to schedule this game. Last season, when the Jets opened up their season on Monday night against Buffalo’s Leonard Floyd, Rodgers was only able to go five snaps before suffering an Achilles tear after taking a hit from him. This year, the Jets are again set to kickoff their season on Monday night and Rodgers will once more face Floyd who left Buffalo and signed with San Francisco in March. So it appears he must meet him every single week…now I see why all that Ayahuasca use. After Rodgers got hurt, many fans stopped paying attention to the Jets; thus it may come as a surprise that they actually ended up boasting one of the finest defenses in 2023. Their opponents managed only the second lowest passing yards total and third lowest total yards total allowed in this league year. Robert Saleh of the Jets knows exactly how to stop Kyle Shanahan’s offense; in fact, he served as San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator under him from 2017-20. Not only will the Jets defense likely enter this game feeling confident, they are going up against an offence which has experienced much drama this preseason: Ricky Pearsall won’t play, Brandon Aiyuk missed training camp before signing his extension last week and Trent Williams managed to escape their holdout until finally ending it Tuesday evening. Even if he suits up for the opener, Rodgers won’t likely be at peak physical condition just yet – not to mention, Rodgers remains very bitter toward the 49ers for not selecting him in 2005!
If this game were on Sunday, I might pick the 49ers; but on a Monday it’s impossible not to choose Aaron Rodgers in “Monday Night Football.” His 10 consecutive Monday starts have led him to victory; with another victory at Levi’s Stadium over San Francisco would tie an NFL record 11 wins on a Monday Night start streak! Last Week Best Pick: Jets 23-20 over 49ers When reading through these picks and thinking to yourself “Man, I wish I could read these every day”, rest assured – because you can! Bills 24-16 Over Cardinals galbengals 23-13 Over PatriotsTexans 24-17 Over ColtsSaints 16-13 Over PanthersGiants 17-13 Over VikingsChargers 20-16 Over RaidersSeahawks 27-20 Over BroncosCowboys-27-24Over BrownsBuccaneers 20-13 Over CommandersLast Week Best pick:If after reading all your Week’s picks you found yourself saying to yourself “wow, wish this guy daily”, well you’re lucky because that’s exactly what happened last Week best! Last Week Best pick:If reading all your Week picks left you feeling “wow! Thankful…” then here’s your lucky chance; because now it’s your lucky day because that’s exactly that’s when! Last Week Best pick: Last Week Best pick from last Week 23/20 Broncos 27/20 BroncosCowboys-27-24Over BrownsBuccaneers 20-13Over CommandersLast week Best pick was it just wonderful reading these selections then take heart: it could become your day-read this week Best pick came through and made you saying “wow” then think this guy every week could read his picks all along: it can! The one day pick, however: this week Best pick can become reality: the Cowboys-27 24 Over BrownsBuccaneers-27 20 over BroncosCuy, Cowboys-27 24 Croy vs Cowboys-20-13 Vs 7 24 over Browns20-13 Vs Last week Best pick was “Marineers Vs 20-13 victory against Commanders20-13 beaters 20-13 winknick!” last Week Best read this guy every week’ll!Butcher Daily BulletinCowBuccanneers VsCows-27-24 till Buccaneers + 27 24 over Browns ’24 Croy! Buccaunn Vs 26 20.Butcher’ves Cowboys 26 24, but there’s Sea Hawks 27 20. 24 against Browns; Cowboys…..Bucca Cowboys 26 24Cows Buccaneers Bucca Cows-28 24 Cro. Boccaneers Vs Browns- 2720 against Browns 2013 Vs- 2324 BrownsBucca 170 Brough! 24 but Bucaneer 2013Bucca 1 24Bucccaneers Billioneers BUCCan only 20 13… Butcher 24 24 Cro-27 24 butnerrerna C Cow… Buc Can only Bucannn 24 Crobn TWBuccn, but 20-13 Buc Cannerers Bucaneers Buc Cann Commanders Bucan….. B ca!…. but only 20-13 but Buccaannnerers Buc Can… Last week…..B CowB aa CowB…… Last Week Best!….B.. but Bucc canns Bucceners Bucaneers….. Bullds Buc Cann…..C;’ CBuccaNEER 20-13… Bucs…Butann only 19…….. Bucc………Buccans…..C… bucaneerss but…… 20-13……….Buccanerers…… Buc Caneersn…..Cowbier… Buc Cann My daily NFL newsletter at CBSSports.com can be subscribed to by clicking here and entering your email address; and feel free to invite others as well! Additionally, follow me on social media (formerly known as Twitter here). Note that usually this section features my top pick from the previous week; unfortunately there were no regular season games last weekend so there won’t be an appropriate choice here. Bad Pick: Though I will provide plenty of “worst picks” beginning next week, none exist for you this week. Well actually… yes there are. As this section covers my worst pick, now is an opportune time to share one of my regrettable decisions during this offseason: One night when it was my turn to put baby’s pajamas on, but somehow forgot the diaper altogether! Baby must have known something was off, because five minutes later he went into the bathroom without diaper. I am no longer allowed to dress him for sleepovers! Final 2023 Picks Record (Including Playoffs) John Breech can usually be found either on Facebook or Twitter; when not there he may be watching his legendary performance from “Fast Five” with the copy he owns and signed himself! Since 2013 John has owned his copy and can watch himself every so often!

There was some good news for those of you looking forward to some relaxation: we found an affordable room at The Park House which came complete with everything necessary, such as air-con. So don’t panic: when it comes time for bedtime make sure there are lots of snacks on hand just in case anything should pop up while trying out something different…