Rating 2024 NFC contenders by tiers: Packers, 49ers, Lions zeroing in on Vince Lombardi Trophy this season

The 2024 NFL common season is simply days away, which suggests the entire league’s 32 groups are peddling optimism.

Nevertheless, it is vital to sift by way of all of the sunshine and roses to be able to set life like expectations for the 2024 season. Certain, there are surprises yearly within the NFL: the Houston Texans went from drafting second total within the 2023 NFL Draft to the AFC divisional spherical, and the Green Bay Packers reached the NFC divisional spherical within the first season after Aaron Rodgers. 

Conserving that in thoughts, which squads ought to be considered as legit contenders for the Vince Lombardi Trophy out of the NFC? Which of them are the possible backside feeders? Which of them are someplace within the center? This is an informed evaluation of the NFC’s 16 groups and the place they belong throughout 5 tiers.

Tier 1: Actual-deal contenders (3)

San Francisco 49ers, Inexperienced Bay Packers, Detroit Lions 

The case for the San Francisco 49ers is abundantly clear: they have been in additional time of the latest Super Bowl, needing only one extra defensive cease towards Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy for the primary time because the 1994 season. They did not accomplish that activity, and win all of it, however they return a lot of the crew that acquired them there final season. That can stay the case whether or not Brandon Aiyuk is on the team this season. Coach Kyle Shanahan’s offenses within the Bay Space have averaged essentially the most yards per play (5.9) and yards per move try (8.1) amongst any coach within the Super Bowl period (since 1966), amongst those that have 100 video games underneath their belt. 

NFL offensive leaders/co-leaders in 2023 on 49ers

Defensively, the 49ers stay stout of their entrance seven led by Professional Bowlers Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Javon Hargrave. San Francisco was the one staff within the league final season to rank inside the highest three in each scoring offense (28.9 PPG) and scoring protection (17.5). 

The Detroit Lions and the Inexperienced Bay Packers spherical out the highest tier of the convention since each gave the 49ers all they may deal with within the postseason earlier than each dropping by a mere three factors in video games each led for almost all of play. 

Detroit locked down three pillars from their prime 5 scoring offense (27.1 PPG, fifth-most within the NFL) this offseason, re-signing quarterback Jared Goff (4 years, $212 million), vast receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (4 years, $120 million) and proper deal with Penei Sewell (4 years, $112 million). Their offense grew to become the primary because the record-breaking 2013 AFC champion Denver Broncos to have 4 gamers file 10 or extra touchdowns from scrimmage with working backs David Montgomery (13) and Jahmyr Gibbs (11 as a rookie), St. Brown (10) and tight finish Sam LaPorta (10 as a rookie). 

The Lions additionally invested closely on protection within the offseason, signing defensive deal with D.J. Reader, a participant 11.5% quarterback stress price was the third-highest within the NFL amongst gamers weighing 320 or extra kilos final season (minimal 100 move rushes), to a two-year, $22 million contract in free company, they usually despatched a third-round choose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers so as to add ex-Tremendous Bowl beginning cornerback Carlton Davis. In addition they drafted two corners — Alabama All-American Terrion Arnold (twenty fourth total choose) and Missouri’s Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (61st total choose) — within the first two rounds to boost the secondary. They are going to be fierce as soon as once more in 2024. 

Inexperienced Bay’s youth motion resulted in fast dividends with a 2023 group that had a median age of 25 years and 114 days, turning into the youngest staff to win a postseason sport because the AFL/NFL merger in 1970. 

The youth motion was powered by quarterback Jordan Love’s ascendance within the second half of the season, following three years marinating on the bench behind Aaron Rodgers after being a first-round choose in 2020. Over his final 10 video games from Week 11 by way of the postseason, Love’s 23-3 landing to interception ratio and 112.1 passer score led the NFL. His 32 regular-season landing passes ranked because the second-most within the NFL, and his 37 together with the postseason rank because the third-most in a participant’s first season as a full-time beginning quarterback, trailing solely Patrick Mahomes’ 53 in 2018 and Corridor of Famer Kurt Warner’s 49 in 1999. That is why they paid him the large bucks (a four-year, $220 million contract extension with an NFL-high $55 million-average-per-year wage).  One other yr with a pass-catching core made up of virtually solely first- and second-year gamers ought to result in greater ranges of manufacturing, plus the addition of 2022 dashing champion Josh Jacobs (4 years, $48 million) ought to result in a more healthy working again rotation.

Defensively, swapping out the zone-heavy scheme of Joe Barry for the aggressive, man coverage-heavy scheme of latest defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley may be exactly what the Packers need to carry the Lombardi Trophy house. Signing the highest security in free company in Xavier McKinney, Professional Soccer Focus’ finest security in protection (91.2 protection grade), will even assist what may very well be, at instances, a leaky defensive backfield. 

Tier 2: Fringe contenders (3)

Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams

The Dallas Cowboys roster grew to become extra prime heavy and shallow in a “get it done with less offseason.”  Nevertheless, their huge three of quarterback Dak Prescott (the 2023 NFL passing touchdowns chief with 36), vast receiver CeeDee Lamb (the 2023 NFL receptions chief with 135) and edge rusher Micah Parsons (the 2023 NFL chief in quarterback pressures (103), quarterback stress price (21.8%) and pass-rush win price (35.3%) is among the finest trios in soccer. Barring they will keep away from one other first-half mental block within the postseason like they did of their 48-32 NFC wild-card spherical collapse towards the Packers, a sport they trailed 27-0, they may make a run with the proper playoff matchups.

In Philadelphia, the Eagles changed their offensive coordinator (letting go of Brian Johnson and hiring Kellen Moore) and their defensive coordinator (firing Sean Desai and Matt Patricia and changing them with Vic Fangio). Coach Nick Sirianni’s retooled employees as soon as once more boasts one of many higher rosters in soccer. Ought to Philly’s offense play extra prefer it in 2022 with working again Saquon Barkley (three years, $37.5 million signee in free company) within the backfield alongside quarterback Jalen Hurts, the Eagles might make a deep playoff run. They’re counting on untested youth at nook with 2023 fourth-round choose Kelee Ringo and rookies Quinyon Mitchell (twenty second total choose) and Cooper DeJean (fortieth total choose) anticipated to play huge roles, which might be one thing to observe.

The Los Angeles Rams have been wonderful when their huge 4 of quarterback Matthew Stafford, working again Kyren Williams and vast receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have been all on the sector final season, going 6-2 whereas averaging 28.5 factors per sport and 398.9 whole yards per sport. Stafford threw 18 touchdowns to solely three interceptions, they usually averaged 6.8 yards per play with all 4 on the sector in 2023, a determine that might be the third-highest by a staff within the Tremendous Bowl period for a whole season. Nacua was the large shock, breaking the NFL rookie data for catches (105) and receiving yards (1,486) after being a fifth-round choose. Defensively, the Rams try to exchange the retired, future Corridor of Fame defensive lineman Aaron Donald within the mixture after drafting Florida State defensive linemen Jared Verse (nineteenth total) and Braden Fiske (thirty ninth total) within the 2024 NFL Draft. 

Tier 3: Completely happy to be right here division winners (2)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons

It has been a very long time since successful the NFC South resulted in a Tremendous Bowl look. The 2016 Atlanta Falcons, led by NFL MVP quarterback Matt Ryan, are the final champion of that division to win the NFC. Sure, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, or slightly the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, did win the Tremendous Bowl within the 2020 season, however they did in order a wild card. That is all to focus on that the winner of this division sometimes hasn’t factored into the NFC race in a significant method in a number of years. 

The Buccaneers doubled down on quarterback Baker Mayfield’s 2023 resurgence, signing him to a three-year, $100 million deal, they usually re-signed Mr. Tampa Bay, vast receiver Mike Evans, to a two-year, $41 million deal. They have been solely the fifth staff in NFL historical past to win a playoff sport after a 4-7 begin final season, however the entrance workplace is banking on the again finish of the season to turn out to be the usual and never an aberration. 

The Atlanta Falcons have an actual quarterback once more for the primary time post-Matt Ryan after signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract. Nevertheless, Cousins turns 36 on Aug. 19 and he’s coming off of a torn Achilles. Atlanta is banking on him returning to the shape that powered him to eight consecutive seasons of 25 or extra passing touchdowns previous to 2023. If he falters within the well being division, they did draft 2023 Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr. eighth total out of Washington. 

Tier 4: Wild-card wilderness (5)

Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders

New Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, the primary total choose of the 2024 NFL Draft, inherits among the finest vast receiver rooms for a prime quarterback prospect ever: he’s the primary top-five choose quarterback to have a number of receivers coming off of 1,200-yard receiving seasons as a rookie with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Williams additionally has former Pac-12 rival Rome Odunze, college football’s receiving yards chief (1,640), in his arsenal after Chicago chosen him ninth total out of Washington. Defensively, they hit their stride after the commerce acquisition of Montez Sweat. The sting rusher grew to become the primary participant in NFL historical past to guide a number of groups in sacks in a season (Washington and Chicago), and he joins PFF’s highest-graded cornerback in Jaylon Johnson (90.8) for a full season. Their downside is just being in the identical division because the Packers and Lions, plus easing in a rookie QB, albeit a extremely gifted one.

The New Orleans Saints possessed a prime 10-caliber protection in key conditions by and huge, rating fourth within the NFL in third-down conversion price allowed (34.5%) and takeaways (29), in addition to in factors allowed total (19.2 PPG allowed, eighth-fewest within the NFL). The issue was they struggled to have an effect on to quarterback with 34 sacks (fourth-lowest within the NFL) and their 72 quarterbacks hits have been tied for the third-fewest within the league. New quarterback Derek Carr completed the season sizzling with 14 touchdowns and solely two interceptions within the staff’s final 5 video games, 4 of which have been wins, but it surely was towards a tender schedule. Can he be constant for a full season together with move rush on the opposite aspect of the ball?

The Seattle Seahawks have an extremely gifted offense with quarterback Geno Smith, working again Kenneth Walker III and vast receivers DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Can new coach Mike Macdonald take a Seahawks protection that allowed essentially the most whole yards per sport (366.5) and dashing yards per sport (144.3) since 2022 and instantly coach them into competency? There may be hope after he coordinated the primary protection ever to guide the NFL in scoring protection (16.5), sacks (60) and takeaways (31, tied with the New York Giants) with the Baltimore Ravens final season. Lots might be requested out of sixteenth total choose defensive deal with Byron Murphy II as a rookie.

The Minnesota Vikings enter the 2024 season with questions at quarterback with journeyman Sam Darnold and rookie tenth total choose J.J. McCarthy vying for his or her beginning quarterback job. Their offensive ecosystem of 2022 NFL Offensive Participant of the Yr Justin Jefferson, vast receiver Jordan Addison, tight finish T.J. Hockenson and newly acquired working again Aaron Jones (one-year, $7 million in free company after asking for his launch from the Packers) with coach Kevin O’Connell calling the performs would appear to be sufficient. However will it?

The Washington Commanders might stumble into competition for a wild-card spot if the staff’s free company spending spree on each side of the ball is sufficient to aide 2024 second total choose quarterback Jayden Daniels right into a easy NFL transition. Coach Dan Quinn’s defenses grew to become a top-five unit upon his arrival in Dallas again in 2021. 

Tier 5: What number of days till the 2025 NFL Draft? (3)

New York Giants, Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers

The New York Giants are caught in mediocrity with Daniel Jones returning as their beginning quarterback after they did not commerce up from the sixth total choose within the 2024 NFL Draft. The Arizona Cardinals ought to have a greater offense with a wholesome Kyler Murray and 2024 fourth total choose vast receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., however they nonetheless lack expertise on the defensive aspect of the ball. 

Carolina Panthers 2023 first total choose Bryce Young had one of many worst rookie seasons in latest reminiscence. Will the Panthers’ offseason offensive upgrades — vast receiver Diontae Johnson, vast receiver Xavier Legette, tight finish Ja’Tavion Sanders, working again Jonathon Brooks, guard Robert Hunt and guard Damien Lewis — be sufficient for him to be a reliable NFL quarterback at his measurement (5-foot-10, 204 kilos)?