Rating 2024 AFC contenders by tiers: Chiefs in a category of their very own with these three groups on their heels

The primary week of the 2024 NFL season is upon us, so hope abounds among the many league’s 32 franchises for what the fast-arriving 2024 season may very well be.

That being stated, it is a necessity to take a practical strategy to your group’s precise competition standing, regardless of the potential for real shock. The Houston Texans went from worst to first within the AFC South within the span of a 12 months after drafting each the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Yr (quarterback C.J. Stroud second total) and the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Yr (defensive finish Will Anderson Jr. third total) in 2023. 

So which golf equipment rightly deserve the label of Super Bowl contender out of the AFC? Which of them are going to be trying forward towards subsequent April and the 2025 NFL Draft? Which of them are in between? Let’s take a more in-depth look by way of the AFC’s 16 squads and the place they match within the convention’s six tiers.

Tier 1: In a league of their very own (1)

Kansas City Chiefs

The 2-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are and are not competing with the opposite groups within the AFC. They’re within the sense that they really must beat the opposite 15 groups within the convention persistently to return to a 3rd Tremendous Bowl in a row, however they’re actually in scorching pursuit of the ghosts within the NFL’s historical past books. 

Kansas Metropolis is angling to grow to be the primary group ever to achieve the Tremendous Bowl after successful back-to-back Tremendous Bowls in addition to the one group to win three consecutive Tremendous Bowls. Two squads have received three consecutive NFL titles, nicely one in two totally different runs: the 1929-1931 and the 1965-1967 Green Bay Packers. The final two championships of that second Packers run within the Nineteen Sixties concluded with the primary two Tremendous Bowl video games, so Inexperienced Bay almost claimed this distinction over 50 years in the past. 

The Chiefs have received eight consecutive division titles (the second-longest streak of all time), made the playoffs 9 occasions in a row (tied for the second-longest streak of all time), received a playoff recreation in six seasons in a row (tied for the second-longest streak of all time) and reached six consecutive seasons (the second-longest streak of all time).

So long as they proceed to have three-time Tremendous Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, nine-time Professional Bowler Travis Kelce at tight finish, two-time First Group All-Professional Chris Jones at defensive sort out, Steve Spagnuolo as their defensive coordinator and Andy Reid as their coach, the nice occasions will proceed to roll in Kansas Metropolis. 

Tier 2: Actual-deal contenders (3)

Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans

Sure, the Baltimore Ravens misplaced some items off of the NFL’s greatest protection. The 2023 iteration of the Ravens turned the primary group in NFL historical past to guide or co-lead the NFL in scoring protection (16.5), sacks (60) and takeaways (31, tied with the New York Giants). Shedding defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, now the Seattle Seahawks coach, hurts. A lot of their defensive core items are intact: Professional Bowl defensive sort out Justin Madubuike, two-time First Group All-Professional linebacker Roquan Smith, three-time Professional Bowl cornerback Marlon Humphrey and 2023 All-Professional security Kyle Hamilton

Nonetheless, their offense may very well be the very best it has ever been within the Lamar Jackson period (since 2019). Jackson enters his second season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s extra fashionable offense, and he does so with the very best operating again he has ever performed with in Derrick Henry, who signed a two-year $16 million deal this offseason. Henry confirmed he nonetheless has it in 2023, rating second in speeding yards with 1,167 behind solely NFL Offensive Participant of the Yr Christian McCaffrey and his 1,459.

Henry led the NFL with 280 carries final season, which resulted in a career-worst 4.2 yards per carry behind a struggling Tennessee Titans line, however that was nonetheless an above-average determine across the NFL. His 4.2 yards per carry got here in because the 18th-best amongst 44 certified operating backs final season. That manufacturing may enhance taking part in alongside Jackson with all the eye his operating means generates. Baltimore had the Chiefs combating for his or her life within the 2023 AFC Championship recreation, and so they may simply do this once more in 2024.

The Buffalo Payments lead the NFL in scoring offense (28.6 factors per recreation) and scoring protection (19.1 opponent factors per recreation) within the common season since 2020, making them the primary group for the reason that 1990-1993 San Francisco 49ers to guide each classes in a four-year span, and so they did not play within the Tremendous Bowl throughout these years. San Francisco did win all of it within the 1994 season, the 12 months after this four-year run of dominance. Quarterback Josh Allen, whose 173 passing and speeding touchdowns since 2020 are probably the most ever in a four-year span, is among the few gamers who may lose his WR1 in Stefon Diggs and never see his offense look all that totally different. 

The Houston Texans rose up in 2023 with Stroud and Anderson Jr. changing into simply the fourth pair of teammates to earn each rookie of the 12 months awards in the identical season. He joined Joe Montana (1989, received NFL MVP) and Tom Brady (2007, received NFL MVP) as the one three quarterbacks within the final 50 seasons to guide the NFL outright in passing yards per recreation (273.9) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (23-5) in 2023. 

Houston then went out and had a historic offseason in 2024: This 12 months’s Texans are the primary group in NFL historical past so as to add a participant coming off a season with 100 or extra catches (traded for four-time Professional Bowl extensive receiver Stefon Diggs), 1,000 or extra speeding yards (traded for Professional Bowl operating again Joe Mixon) and 10 or extra sacks (defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry) in the identical offseason, based on CBS Sports activities Analysis. Fairly, fairly good. 

Tier 3: Fringe contenders (3)

Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins 

The Cincinnati Bengals are both true contenders within the AFC or they miss the postseason completely within the Joe Burrow period. They missed postseason play when Burrow suffered a season-ending knee damage in 2020 and a season-ending wrist damage in 2023. When he has been wholesome, Cincy has both represented the AFC within the Tremendous Bowl (2021) or narrowly misplaced the AFC Championship recreation towards the Chiefs (2022). The rationale the Bengals aren’t within the true contender tier is as a result of Burrow’s well being has grow to be a recurring drawback. If it had been straightforward to belief his sturdiness, the Bengals can be one tier increased than this one. 

The New York Jets’ competition equally depends upon future Corridor of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who shall be 41 on Dec. 2, remaining upright after tearing his Achilles 4 performs into the 2023 season. The excellent news is New York went all in on its offensive line this offseason. 

Jets offensive line notable additions this offseason

If one of many oldest NFL rosters in latest reminiscence can keep wholesome sufficient come playoff time, this Jets group has a shot at taking part in its approach towards the highest of the convention. 

The Miami Dolphins have to show they’ll beat different contenders, particularly late within the season, to be really taken significantly. They possessed a 1-6 report towards playoff groups and had been 10-1 versus all different groups final season. Miami’s -110 level differential towards groups to achieve the postseason was the second-worst ever by a group that made the playoffs in NFL historical past, in entrance of solely the 1994 Chicago Bears -112 level differential towards groups to make the postseason. 

Excellent news is quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a wholesome 2023, and Tyreek Hill continues to be one of many NFL’s most harmful gamers: Hill has eclipsed 1,700 yards in each seasons in coach Mike McDaniel’s offense catching passes from Tagovailoa, making him the primary participant in NFL historical past with a number of seasons of 1,700 or extra receiving yards. They should consider and present they’ll do it in December and January. 

Tier 4: Wild-card wilderness  (4)

Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers

The Pittsburgh Steelers‘ high 10 scoring protection, led by three-time NFL sacks chief T.J. Watt, the one participant to guide the league in sacks in three totally different seasons, Joey Porter Jr. and Patrick Queen is a high-caliber group. Nonetheless, it is unclear if both Russell Wilson or Justin Fields can snap out of both of their respective funks that acquired them booted off of their earlier groups this previous offseason. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars needs to be higher with a more healthy Trevor Lawrence and new middle Mitch Morse anchoring this offensive line. Morse may change operating again Travis Etienne’s outlook: he amassed one other 1,000-yard speeding season in 2023, and he led the league with 89 tackles averted. Nonetheless, his effectivity dipped from his rookie season, dropping from 5.1 in 2022 to three.8 in 2023. The blame may very well be directed at a Jacksonville offense whose 40.6 Professional Soccer Focus run-blocking grade ranked because the second-worst within the NFL. Higher blocking up entrance, plus the addition of former 49ers line of defense stalwart Arik Armstead in free company to go alongside Josh Hines-Allen, whose 19.5 sacks had been tied for the second-most within the NFL in 2023, may create a Jaguars group that pushes the Texans for the AFC South crown. 

The Indianapolis Colts hope to maintain 2023 fourth total decide quarterback Anthony Richardson on the sector this season. They went 9-8 beneath first-year coach Shane Steichen although Richardson missed 13 video games with a shoulder damage, and All-Professional operating again Jonathan Taylor missed seven video games between a holdout and an damage. Richardson joined Daunte Culpepper (2000), Cam Newton (2011) and Robert Griffin III (2012) as the one gamers in NFL historical past with three or extra passing touchdowns and three or extra speeding touchdowns of their first 4 profession video games. The Colts needs to be Houston’s hardest divisional opponent in 2023. 

The Los Angeles Chargers have Justin Herbert, a quarterback who has probably the most completions (1,613) and passing yards (17,223) in NFL historical past spanning a participant’s first 4 seasons, and his 114 profession passing touchdowns are tied for the second-most in a participant’s first 4 seasons with Mahomes, behind solely Corridor of Famer Dan Marino’s 142 from 1983 to 1986. If the Chargers can have a much less leaky protection — they surrendered a league-high 49 performs of 25 or extra yards, and so they ranked backside 5 in whole yards per recreation (362.9, twenty eighth) and passing yards per recreation (249.8, thirtieth). If new coach Jim Harbaugh and his workers can repair Herbert’s offensive line safety up entrance after drafting Notre Dame All-America sort out Joe Alt fifth total and tighten up their protection, this may very well be a playoff group. 

Tier 5: Not so scorching in Cleveland (1)

Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns have the protection to contend as their group led the league in whole protection (270.2 whole yards allowed per recreation) with edge rusher Myles Garrett successful the 2023 NFL Defensive Participant of the Yr award. Nonetheless, quarterback Deshaun Watson has been a horrific funding since they traded a boatload of picks to the Houston Texans and signed him to a five-year, totally assured $230 million contract. He’s taking part in like one of many worst quarterbacks in soccer since he turned a Brown, and he’s coming off of getting surgical procedure on his throwing shoulder. 

Watson as a Cleveland Brown (since 2022)

* Amongst 45 QBs with 300+ cross makes an attempt

His as soon as patented, environment friendly deep ball (43% completion share on passes of 20 or extra air yards, sixth-best within the NFL with the Texans from 2017-2021) is now longer a part of his arsenal because of a 28% completion share on such throws, which stands as thirty eighth out of 45 quarterbacks with at the least 300 passing makes an attempt since 2022. Joe Flacco saved this franchise’s offense a 12 months in the past, but it surely’s unrealistic to count on the identical from backup Jameis Winston two years in a row. 

Tier 6: What number of days till the 2025 NFL Draft? 

New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos each angled for one of many 2024 NFL Draft’s high 5 quarterback prospects, however they each struck out. Denver settled for Bo Nix with the twelfth total decide whereas the Raiders went greatest participant obtainable and selected Georgia All-America tight finish Brock Bowers. Their respective quarterback rooms of Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew (Raiders) and Nix, Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham (Broncos) don’t get the job executed. 

The Tennessee Titans had an lively offseason bulking up second-year quarterback Will Levis‘ supporting solid: Tennessee inked Jaguars’ high receiver Calvin Ridley on a four-year, $92 million contract, Dallas Cowboys beginning operating again Tony Pollard to a three-year, $21.75 million contract, Denver Broncos middle Lloyd Cushenberry III to a four-year, $50 milllon deal and Bengals longtime slot man Tyler Boyd to a one-year, $2.4 million deal. The Titans additionally drafted Alabama All-America offensive sort out JC Latham seventh total. Their offensive line and again seven of their protection are nonetheless filled with too many query marks to count on competition this season. 

Phrase out of New England Patriots coaching camp is that third overall pick quarterback Drake Maye has been a rollercoaster up to now. This group does not have the offensive playmakers, notably at extensive receiver, to contend with out Professional Bowl-caliber quarterback play.