Has Boeing shaken your confidence to fly? A brand new MIT research might restore it

Airfare, departure occasions, flight size — these are the same old issues for vacationers who need to e-book a flight.

However now, extra are taking a look at a brand new issue: the plane itself.   

One in 5 vacationers mentioned they’re doing extra analysis into the airplane they could be flying on earlier than they e-book, whereas barely extra (22%) mentioned they’re limiting air journey for the remainder of the yr, in keeping with a survey performed in June by the digital analytics firm Quantum Metric.

General, 55% of vacationers mentioned they’ve modified the best way they e-book flights due to current information about plane and airways, the survey confirmed.  

The survey didn’t straight point out Boeing, however a steady stream of media coverage about the company — from its high quality management to enterprise ethos — have dominated headlines since a door panel blew off a Alaska Airways flight on Jan. 5, 2024.

These tales have directed customers’ focus to Boeing’s plane, which was one thing vacationers did not use to concentrate to, mentioned Danielle Harvey, international vice chairman and head of journey and hospitality technique at Quantum Metric.

“Our analysis infers that fliers are doing extra analysis to grasp and probably keep away from Boeing aircrafts,” she mentioned.

The survey additionally confirmed 13% of respondents are avoiding low cost carriers to really feel safer about flying.

However this does not actually make sense, mentioned Brendan Sobie, unbiased aviation analyst and founding father of Sobie Aviation.

“Initially, there are extra low cost carriers working Airbus (A320s) than Boeing (737s) notably in Asia,” he mentioned. “And the Boeing points, in fact, affect all airways regardless of their enterprise mannequin.”

As unnerving as current headlines about Boeing could also be, aviation security is bettering by the last decade, in keeping with Arnold Barnett, a professor of statistics on the Massachusetts Institute of Know-how and co-author of a research paper about the risks of commercial flights.

The paper, revealed within the Journal of Air Transport Administration in August, states that the danger of dying on a industrial flight globally was 1 per 13.7 million passenger boardings from 2018 to 2022 — a big enchancment from the last decade earlier than, and much cry from the one loss of life for each 350,000 boardings that occurred between 1968-1977.

Industrial security requirements may be evaluated by a wide range of metrics — from miles movement to flight hours — however in keeping with MIT Information, Barnett selected “deaths per passenger boarding” as a result of it solutions a easy query: You probably have a boarding cross for a flight, what are your odds of dying?

Barnett suggests a number of elements have made flying safer, in keeping with MIT Information, together with “technological advances, comparable to collision avoidance techniques in planes; intensive coaching; and rigorous work by organizations such because the U.S. Federal Aviation Company and the Nationwide Transportation Security Board.”

However geographical disparities exist, in accordance the report, which divides the world into three tiers in terms of flight security:

• Tier 1: United States, the European Union and different components of Europe, plus Australia, Canada, China, Israel, Japan and New Zealand
• Tier 2: Bahrain, Bosnia, Brazil, Brunei, Chile, Hong Kong, India, Jordan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates
• Tier 3: Each different nation

For Tier 1 and Tier 2, the loss of life danger for flights between 2018-22 falls to 1 per 80 million passenger boardings, in keeping with MIT researchers.

In Tier 3 international locations, fatality dangers had been 36 occasions larger that of Tier 1 international locations from 2018-2022, in keeping with the report. However even amongst these international locations, fatalities per boarding practically halved throughout this time interval, Barnett famous.

The research is a historic evaluation of economic flight security, which doesn’t predict how Boeing’s points could play out sooner or later.

However Barnett indicated he is assured about the way forward for industrial aviation.

“Whereas the Alaska Airways incident was definitely an emergency, the pilots responded instantly and landed the airplane safely. Thus, the occasion reveals that, even when issues go terribly fallacious, different components of the air-safety system usually avert catastrophe,” he advised CNBC Travel.

“Considered in full, the incident says extra concerning the security of flying than its risks,” he mentioned.

Thus, avoiding Boeing-manufactured plane is feasible, but not necessarily easy. Nevertheless, numerous platforms, from Kayak to Different Airways, permit vacationers to filter flights by plane, an possibility added after two Boeing 737 Max airliners crashed inside a six-month interval in 2018 and 2019.  

Amongst those that need to solely fly Airbus, or who purpose to keep away from Boeing’s 737 Max plane, some will discover this simpler than others, mentioned Harvey.

“Some airways have a big variety of Boeing plane of their fleet, so it might imply that individuals must swap airways,” she mentioned. “For the typical traveler, this is not an issue, however for frequent vacationers working to construct standing, which may be much less interesting and thus more durable to do.”

Nonetheless, nothing is assured.

After Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crashed on March 10, 2019, I paid an extra four-figure sum for my household to fly from Singapore to the USA to keep away from touring on a Boeing 737 Max.

Earlier than the departure date, the airline emailed with minor modifications to the departure time, and one different alteration that beforehand would have been a non-issue: a change in plane.

The brand new airplane? A Boeing 737 Max.