2024 NFL season win-loss report predictions for each workforce: Steelers, Eagles underachieve; Rams impress

The Brinson Mannequin™ returns! After a fairly triumphant 12 months for my full-season win-loss projections, we’re again for an additional season of attempting to nail each single NFL workforce’s report accurately.

Trying again on final season is a harsh reminder of how exhausting it’s to really predict precise NFL workforce data. In spite of everything, it is a sport performed with an inflated, rectangular piece of massive butt that likes to bounce round randomly and create whole chaos over a comparatively quick pattern dimension.

I hit simply three groups (49ers, Seahawks, Titans) precisely, however had one other 10 inside one sport of their precise win whole, one other 5 inside two video games and one other eight inside three video games. My common differential was 2.25 whereas the imply differential for all of my picks was a fair two video games. 

The largest mistake I made was basically flipping Carolina and the Bucs. Whoops! The Browns and Bengals QB conditions and finish outcomes created an eight-game swing for me as effectively. I used to be a lot, a lot greater on the Texans than the market and nonetheless did not give them sufficient credit score. Identical for the Rams. I used to be a lot decrease than the market on the Chargers however someway not low sufficient! Then again, my Patriots projection was humiliating in hindsight. 

Let’s run it again. As soon as once more, ship your complaints to @WillBrinson on Twitter/X and with the identical deal with on Instagram. 

DraftKings win whole: 6.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected report: 7-10

The Cardinals appear to have someway grow to be a consensus enjoyable/frisky workforce for 2024. Kyler Murray flashed some upside final 12 months on this intriguing offense, and after floating in purgatory final offseason, the Playing cards firmly dedicated to their QB this offseason, doubling down and getting him Marvin Harrison Jr. as an elite WR to pair with Trey McBride. Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch are all of the sudden good little secondary weapons on this offense. Jonathan Gannon’s intro presser expertise gave lots of people cheap pause in regards to the teaching in Arizona, however possibly he is only a Nick Sirriani clone however on protection, because the teaching was robust in Arizona final 12 months. That is nonetheless a rebuilding mission, particularly in a extremely powerful division, but it surely would not shock me if the Playing cards have been within the playoff hunt late, particularly if the protection takes any type of step ahead.

DraftKings win whole: 9.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected report: 10-7

It is exhausting to not be excited in regards to the Falcons this 12 months. Final 12 months’s workforce was a number of frustration, with the top-10 offensive weapons on the roster largely underused. Now Zac Robinson involves city together with dear free agent Kirk Cousins, and you’ll hear the joy when guys like Drake London and Bijan Robinson discuss this offense. Kyle Pitts needs to be in line for the season everybody’s been ready on as effectively. The one manner this offense fails is a Cousins harm, and Atlanta drafted Michael Penix Jr. eighth general, giving it some insurance coverage on that entrance. There’s nothing improper with questioning the defensive chops right here, particularly after passing on a first-round go rusher for Penix, however I belief Raheem Morris to get probably the most out of this unit. He is been a superb coordinator in his profession, and there are some similarities to the Rams on this defensive roster. 

DraftKings win whole: 10.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected report: 12-5

There are many individuals projecting a number of regression for the Ravens this 12 months, largely because of free company attrition, in addition to the departure of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. There’s main, and viable, concern with the offensive line in entrance of Lamar Jackson as effectively. However I feel Baltimore finally ends up being a reasonably regular workforce that can “shock” some individuals. Zach Orr takes over as defensive coordinator. He is extremely considered and may be capable of decrease the drop-off from Macdonald. Extra regarding is the departure of men like Patrick Queen and Geno Stone, significantly since these two left for division rivals in free company. Offensively this workforce might take a leap ahead off of Jackson’s second MVP season. It is his second 12 months in Todd Monken’s system and it seems like his weapons may very well be improved. Zay Flowers is in his second 12 months, the workforce is admittedly excessive on Rashod Bateman, and the duel combo of Mark Andrews/Isaiah Possible is fairly robust. The offensive linemen have been all drafted in home, and the Ravens are wonderful at drafting and growing, so I feel it might be much less of an issue than individuals suppose. 

DraftKings win whole: 10.5 (below -155)
Brinson projected report: 10-7

Josh Allen is my MVP choose this 12 months, and a part of that’s him having a division-winning, toss-the-team-on-my-back season after the Bills traded Stefon Diggs this offseason. The narrative right here is the Payments will crater and other people appear to be rooting in opposition to them. I am not completely bought on Joe Brady as an OC, however I feel his play-calling matches with these weapons: he will feed James Cook and proceed to run Allen within the pink zone. The combo of Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir with the potential for a large breakout from Dalton Kincaid offers this offense much more upside than persons are giving it credit score for. Sean McDermott’s famous this is likely to be one of the best OL of his tenure in Buffalo. I am shopping for the dip. The Payments defensively have some go rush issues and are in the midst of altering over personnel, however I nonetheless belief McDermott to get probably the most out of this group. Von Miller must be a a lot greater plus than final 12 months.

DraftKings win whole: 5.5 (over -115)
Brinson projected report: 6-11

What might go improper??? After being excessive on Carolina final 12 months and being SO improper, I am again to being a bit of extra bullish on the Panthers as soon as once more. There’s a number of underlying statistical causes (a nasty report in one-score video games and their level differential final 12 months) to imagine they’ll win extra video games in 2024. However it’s also possible to level to teaching — Dave Canales is an unknown, however the teaching workers is at the very least all on the identical web page now — which is an improve for Carolina. It is going to run the heck out of the ball this season, which is able to intensify the energy of the offensive linemen on this roster and decrease the publicity of Bryce Young to tons of go rush pressures. Getting Diontae Johnson by way of commerce and drafting Xavier Legette within the first spherical routinely means the Panthers have upgraded the ability guys. Dropping Brian Burns is brutal for the protection, however there’s sufficient expertise on that aspect of the ball for Carolina to hold round in video games and steal some wins. 

DraftKings win whole: 8.5 (over -165)
Brinson projected report: 8-9

The annual hype surrounding the Bears is constructing to its regular outrageous ranges, however — insert Tobias Fünke meme right here — possibly that is really the 12 months once we needs to be shopping for in. Caleb Williams has huge upside as a rookie, and he landed in one of many higher touchdown spots for a younger quarterback, with the Bears including Keenan Allen (commerce) and Rome Odunze (draft) to D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet. D’Andre Swift was a sneaky free company addition who offers Williams one other outlet possibility. The offensive line might be one of the best Chicago’s had in just a few years. Can Matt Eberflus carry over the late-season defensive manufacturing into 2024? As soon as the Bears acquired Montez Sweat in a midseason commerce, issues actually appeared to take off. If that is the case, I is likely to be underselling them right here. They undoubtedly qualify as a sleeper playoff workforce within the NFC. 

DraftKings win whole: 10.5 (over -140)
Brinson projected report: 11-6

The bull case for the Bengals is fairly apparent: constructive regression when it comes to quarterback well being. Joe Burrow‘s borderline “harm inclined” at this level, however possibly that blonde wig he confirmed as much as coaching camp with will beat back the evil harm spirits. Ja’Marr Chase is not working towards due to a contract state of affairs, however I anticipate him to be full go. Tee Higgins is not completely happy about his tag, however he will play. Zack Moss and Chase Brown could also be a sneaky huge improve for Cincy at working again. The lack of OC Brian Callahan is actually a priority, however I feel Zac Taylor — who was calling performs anyway — and Burrow at QB will be capable of patch that drawback pretty handily. Defensively the Bengals have been useless final in yards per play allowed final season. I anticipate an enchancment there, even with D.J. Reader out the door. Sheldon Rankins will assist fill that void, and bringing again Geno Stone from a division rival ought to assist the again finish of this protection in a giant manner.  

DraftKings win whole: 8.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected report: 7-10

I had the Browns on my checklist of seven teams who could miss the postseason in 2024 and, fairly naturally, Browns followers are thrilled. Defensively, I am a bit of involved about Cleveland repeating its efficiency final 12 months. Jim Schwartz is one in every of my fave defensive coordinators (can we please get him and Harbaugh 2.0?), however the Browns have been very up and down when it comes to their efficiency relying on house/street splits. That is a pink flag. On the opposite aspect of the ball, their greatest loss could also be OL coach Invoice Callahan, who joined his son Brian in Tennessee. Combine in an unknown timeline for Nick Chubb, and I feel you can also make the case this top-tier speeding offense might fall off a cliff. D’Onta Foreman, their short-yardage again, suffered a scary harm in coaching camp, too. Issues are getting skinny at working again already. How can anybody presumably recommend Deshaun Watson might be good once more? We’ve not seen it in additional than three years. Possibly a brand new Kevin Stefanski throw-heavy system, plus the addition of Jerry Jeudy, will assist Watson get his efficiency stage again up, however I feel Stefanski would like having Baker Mayfield nonetheless on the workforce given his system. There’s simply a number of unknown right here and it revolves round Watson.

DraftKings win whole: 10.5 (below -180)
Brinson projected report: 11-6

The vary of outcomes for the Cowboys this 12 months is fairly large, as you may inform by me having them on my “might miss the playoffs” checklist and concurrently placing them down for 11 wins in The Brinson Mannequin™️. I even have them beginning fairly gradual out of the gate, going simply .500 over their first six weeks earlier than catching fireplace because of a reasonably pleasant schedule that includes plenty of house video games within the second half. If the offensive line does not crumble, I belief Mike McCarthy to get probably the most out of Dak Prescott. The playoffs is likely to be an issue, however he is gained 12 video games in three straight years. CeeDee Lamb is gonna play even when it is on a lame-duck deal. Brandin Cooks is an honest No. 2 possibility, Jake Ferguson is a semi-sneaky potential breakout candidate this 12 months, and the working again room with Rico Dowdle could also be higher than anybody expects. My greatest concern is the protection with Dan Quinn gone, however Mike Zimmer has sufficient choices on that aspect of the ball for a reclamation mission. 

DraftKings win whole: 5.5 (below -125)
Brinson projected report: 7-10

I discovered myself a bit of stunned to be so low on the Broncos this 12 months contemplating my affinity for Sean Payton as a coach. It is principally a byproduct of a extremely tough division and the full unknown of the quarterback place in Denver. Bo Nix type of HAS to play after being taken twelfth general this 12 months, proper? If he does not, it is an enormous pink flag. Javonte Williams goes to actually shock some of us, I feel, and if they’ll block up entrance, he might have a large 12 months. The receiver group is a bit of regarding, and I am not solely certain how nice the protection goes to be, both. However I additionally suppose it is simple to overlook the Broncos really gained eight video games final 12 months and almost acquired concerned within the playoff hunt late. In the event that they went 9-8 and Nix was a star as a result of Payton is an unbelievable quarterback coach and offensive thoughts, I would not be stunned in any respect. 

DraftKings win whole: 10.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected report: 11-6

Do the Lions have one of the best top-to-bottom roster within the NFL now? Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell have performed an unbelievable job constructing out this Lions workforce to the purpose it will be stunning if the Lions did not make the postseason this 12 months. Jared Goff and this offense play three video games all 12 months lengthy outdoor — sure, three whole video games outdoor. This may very well be fireworks, particularly if Jameson Williams makes the strides Campbell signifies he might. Jahmyr Gibbs is lining up within the slot a bunch throughout camp, that means we might get he and David Montgomery on the sector collectively a ton. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are studs. The largest concern for the offensive output right here can be the protection taking a giant step ahead, particularly on the again finish. Detroit’s entrance seven seems robust, however the secondary gave up a ton of go yards final 12 months, inflicting Detroit to take a position. Which may be dangerous for fantasy however will not matter one lick for the Lions being a extremely nice soccer workforce. 

DraftKings win whole: 9.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected report: 10-7

One other workforce with a large vary of outcomes relying on what the Packers get from Jordan Love this 12 months. As I’ve famous loads of instances, Love was a borderline starter for the primary half of the season final 12 months and a unanimous MVP stage participant the second half of the season. He is acquired piles of weapons this 12 months and a model new contract, so expectations needs to be excessive. The early-season schedule is not “straightforward” and beginning the season in Brazil may be very uncommon, but it surely would not be stunning if the Pack acquired off to a scorching begin and stored it rolling for a lot of the season. I am bullish on Love with all his totally different weapons, particularly so if Christian Watson stays wholesome this season. The protection needs to be upgraded largely due to Jeff Hafley becoming a member of on as defensive coordinator. 

DraftKings win whole: 9.5 (over -140)
Brinson projected report: 10-7

The sky is the restrict for Houston, however the expectations may very well be an issue right here. C.J. Stroud is the second favourite MVP candidate in the complete NFL. Including Stefon Diggs to Tank Dell and Nico Collins is simply enjoyable and Joe Mixon might match what this offense does effectively. It is exhausting to query the protection due to DeMeco Ryans‘ chops as a coach and due to his success all over the place he is been. Additionally they added Danielle Hunter as a pass-rush possibility and Kamari Lassiter within the secondary, with each guys getting good buzz this offseason. If Lassiter is a stud and Derek Stingley Jr. retains growing, that’s one filthy combo. My greatest issues are truthfully simply the hype and the division: the Texans may be able to ship on the previous, and even when they do not max out their potential, they might nonetheless take house the AFC South crown.

DraftKings win whole: 8.5 (below -125)
Brinson projected report: 8-9

One other workforce with a loopy stage of variation and, naturally, it revolves round Anthony Richardson. In the event you instructed me AR performed 5 video games and the Colts struggled this season I would purchase it. In the event you instructed me AR gained MVP this season and the Colts have been a 12-win powerhouse, I would purchase that too. I do not wish to peg Richardson as an injury-prone man one 12 months into his profession, however he acquired banged up so much and it occurred early. Nonetheless, there’s so much to love right here. Shane Steichen is a extremely good offensive coach, and it feels like this workforce will wish to play quick. Michael Pittman is signed and AD Mitchell is within the combine by way of the draft, together with Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and a few enjoyable tight finish items. The offensive line must get again to the place it was just a few years in the past and maintain Richardson upright.  

DraftKings win whole: 8.5 (over/below -110)
Brinson projected report: 9-8

The margins are going to be cosy in a extremely powerful AFC South. The Jaguars have been the Texans this time final 12 months, with Trevor Lawrence getting MVP hype and the Jags being thought-about a legit Super Bowl contender. They did not even make the postseason after collapsing down the stretch, however Lawrence was much more harm than individuals realized. If he is wholesome this 12 months, the offense needs to be considerably higher, significantly with the addition of Gabe Davis in free company and Brian Thomas Jr. as a first-round choose. Defensively, the Arik Armstead signing was huge within the second however is possibly flying below the radar as we head into the season. Add in Darnell Savage they usually have 5 former first-round picks on the protection. It is time for this unit to supply, and the addition of Ryan Nielsen as DC may very well be the jolt it wants. 

DraftKings win whole: 11.5 (over -115)
Brinson projected report: 12-5

The unfathomable lastly occurred in 2023: The Chiefs went below their win whole for the primary time since Andy Reid took over in Kansas Metropolis manner again in 2013. And so they promptly gained the division after which gained the Tremendous Bowl. Naturally. Now KC is attempting for a three-peat, and in an effort to bolster the offense, Reid and GM Brett Veach added Hollywood Brown in free company and Xavier Worthy within the first spherical of the draft. Patrick Mahomes now has some precise vertical threats who will pair completely with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice consuming up beneath. Dropping L’Jarius Sneed on protection hurts for certain, however this unit has quietly been superior the previous few years and should not drop off a lot. Steve Spagnuolo deserves a ton of credit score for serving to develop some wonderful younger picks, and Veach as effectively for locating it and retaining most of it. I might see the Chiefs not placing their foot on the gasoline all season to avoid wasting up for the playoffs. Or possibly they simply bash everybody on offense to let individuals know. 

DraftKings win whole: 6.5 (over -130)
Brinson projected report: 6-11

Powerful workforce to determine in Las Vegas. I feel I could also be promoting the Raiders quick due to their general roster, however I even have main questions in regards to the quarterback and the problems they will face within the division. Is Gardner Minshew actually the reply in free company? I really like the Brock Bowers choose, but it surely additionally feels a bit redundant with Michael Mayer within the fold, despite the fact that there was a brand new regime on the town. Antonio Pierce did an superior job with this workforce down the stretch final 12 months, however interim coaches do not typically pan out in full-time roles. If the Raiders protection is as opportunistic because it was final 12 months and the run sport will be dominant, this workforce can simply outpace my projection and the Vegas win whole. The schedule simply has some actually powerful stretches on account of taking part in within the AFC West.

DraftKings win whole: 8.5 (over -155)
Brinson projected report: 12-5

Would you say I am bullish on the Rams this 12 months??? I feel Matthew Stafford is ready to have an unbelievable 12 months, possibly extra environment friendly than volume-based, because of the offseason upgrades Los Angeles made on offense. L.A. beefed up the run sport on the inside by including Jonah Jackson and Kevin Dotson. Colby Parkinson is likely one of the sneakiest additions in free company and offers the workforce some enjoyable athleticism at tight finish with Tyler Higbee getting back from harm. Puka Nacua‘s preseason harm is a priority, however Cooper Kupp needs to be fully wholesome to begin the 12 months and DeMarcus Robinson units up as a extremely underrated third receiver in 11 personnel. Blake Corum is an ideal praise to Kyren Williams. I’ve huge expectations for this offense –especially when it will need to attain extra factors to make up for a barely worse protection after shedding Aaron Donald and Raheem Morris. I do love including Jared Verse and Braden Fiske as a combo to interchange the previous. 

Los Angeles Chargers

DraftKings win whole: 8.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected report: 9-8

The Justin Herbert plantar harm might throw this entire division, and positively this workforce, into full flux. If Herbert’s wholesome, I just like the Chargers as a sneaky playoff workforce. Jim Harbaugh simply wins, and he set this workforce up in his picture early. Greg Roman’s run sport behind this offensive line — chockfull of early draft picks — ought to produce sufficient to let Herbert and Josh Palmer/Ladd McConkey transfer the chains when they should. And the protection did not lose anybody within the wage cap purge this offseason, that means Harbs ought to be capable of get probably the most out of what he inherited. The Harbaugh Bros do not miss a lot on the subject of bringing in coordinators, and we have already seen Jesse Minter succeed below Jim in Ann Arbor. Herbert’s harm simply must be watched as we get nearer to the season due to how lengthy it could actually linger. 

DraftKings win whole: 9.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected report: 9-8

The Dolphins made it rain this offseason, paying each Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill to kick off coaching camp and Jaylen Waddle earlier within the offseason. They’ve locked of their core on offense for the following few years and that is completely a Tremendous Bowl contender … if just a few issues break proper. The offensive line wants to return collectively rapidly forward of Tua, with this run sport organising the deadly go sport. The perpetually underrated Raheem Mostert, second-year explosive again De’Von Achane and rookie Jaylen Wright have them primed for giant issues if the road is cooking. Jonnu Smith was a sneaky YAC addition. The protection has massive issues due to harm: Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are each going to be late coming again more than likely and Christian Wilkins walked in free company. The offense might want to carry issues early within the season (because it did final 12 months, not unfeasible!), however the Dolphins additionally want to determine tips on how to beat good groups and win when it’s chilly. 

DraftKings win whole: 6.5 (over -160)
Brinson projected report: 7-10

Vegas just isn’t bullish on the Vikings this 12 months. It is comprehensible given the change at quarterback and much more comprehensible when the information broke this week that J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending torn meniscus during the preseason. Which means Sam Darnold is beginning Week 1 and sure taking part in the complete season. Going from Kirk Cousins to Darnold is a reasonably huge dropoff, particularly when you think about how sharp McCarthy appeared in his first preseason motion, particularly when he did not even have Justin Jefferson on the market. There’s nonetheless so much on offense with JJ, Jordan Addison (suspension nonetheless lurking?) and a few lower-tier wideouts plus T.J. Hockenson at any time when he returns from harm, but it surely seems like they’re gonna should run the heck out of the ball with Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler to win. Minny nearly appears a bit of snakebit proper now on offense. One other 12 months of Brian Flores protection may very well be useful, though I’ve acquired issues about a number of the swaps they made on that aspect of the ball. The larger concern is the division — if the Packers and Bears take the anticipated steps ahead, it should be actually powerful for the Vikings. 

DraftKings win whole: 4.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected report: 5-12

For the primary time in additional than twenty years, there is no Invoice Belichick in New England. And whereas change might need been obligatory for the Pats, it certain does throw this season into full query. Drake Maye is a uber-talented however streaky rookie behind a questionable offensive line with nominal weapons … and he won’t even begin to start the season. Former NC State legend Jacoby Brissett is ready to beat out one other one more UNC quarterback for a beginning job, and his flooring is healthier than that of Maye to begin the season, however he is nonetheless coping with the identical points. DeMario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne (who’s on PUP) have been joined by Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker within the draft, however the wideout group continues to be missing. If Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson can really spark the run sport, there’s possibly a bit of extra upside right here offensively, but it surely’s exhausting to see the Pats being a top-half-of-the-league unit. Defensively there is a significantly better likelihood of success, however even with Jerod Mayo capably working issues, we’re nonetheless speaking a few workforce that misplaced one of the best defensive coach in NFL historical past. 

DraftKings win whole: 7.5 (over -120)
Brinson projected report: 6-11

You may inform the stress is turned up on Dennis Allen just by listening to a few of his harsh quotes on numerous gamers main as much as the season. Issues might be amplified with offensive line issues — the unit that dominated in entrance of Drew Brees for the previous few years has actually fallen off, exacerbated by the preseason departure of Ryan Ramczyk. Taliese Fuaga must be a borderline star out of the gate at left sort out. And Klint Kubiak, changing longtime OC Pete Carmichael, wants his offense to operate effectively and rapidly. There’s sufficient there for it to occur: Derek Carr, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are a pleasant trio, and if Alvin Kamara can rebound to his earlier type, this offense may very well be enjoyable to observe. The protection ought to keep a excessive stage and will even take a step ahead if Chase Young can reside as much as expectations. The Saints underperformed their anticipated win whole final 12 months and went 3-6 in one-score video games, so I am probably too low on them right here if the offense can grow to be extra dynamic. 

DraftKings win whole: 6.5 (below -135)
Brinson projected report: 6-11

Man it’s exhausting to be bearish on this workforce while you watch Malik Nabers coaching camp highlights. The primary-round choose has been a continuous spotlight reel proper up till he suffered a gentle ankle sprain just lately. The whole lot actually comes right down to Daniel Jones and the offensive line. If the safety holds up, possibly we get a wholesome 2022 model of Danny Dimes and this workforce seems significantly better on offense. The departure of Saquon Barkley is likely to be a very good factor, as a result of it ought to enable the offense to run a bit of extra fluidly with out attempting to concentrate on one particular person. The addition of Brian Burns alongside Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux might make for a extremely nasty go rush, one that might even make up for any shortcomings within the secondary. 

DraftKings win whole: 9.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected report: 9-8

I included the Jets as a workforce that might possibly make the leap into the playoffs after missing last year, and the complete logic behind this may be summed up in two phrases: Aaron Rodgers. Sadly, the four-time MVP and future Corridor of Famer is not only a probably nice quarterback in 2024, but in addition a 40-year-old coming off an Achilles harm that price him the complete 2023 season. Tyrod Taylor ought to maintain the ground raised if Rodgers misses any time, as a result of in any other case it is a fairly darn stable roster. The entrance workplace attacked the offensive line drawback this offseason, including Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses in free company and Olu Fashanu within the draft. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are each viable OPOY candidates. The protection needs to be actually good but once more, but it surely’s value noting the Jets completed simply twelfth in factors allowed final 12 months and actually solely have a single season of nice defensive play. There’s simply a number of variance right here with Rodgers’ well being.

DraftKings win whole: 10.5 (over -130)
Brinson projected report: 9-8

My projection goes in opposition to the Vegas implied success of the Eagles, and it is largely due to what I anticipate to be a slow-ish begin for Philly. I nonetheless see it as a probable playoff workforce, but it surely attracts the Packers and three quarters of the NFC South to begin earlier than a Week 5 bye. They’ve a brand new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, and even when he is an improve, there’s some issues after seeing the Chargers final 12 months, plus the pure acclimation time. The lack of Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox — the literal spine of each the offense and protection, respectively — is type of being glossed over this offseason. Howie Roseman did an excellent job changing the 2 forward of time by drafting Cam Jurgens and Jordan Davis, however there’s an opportunity this workforce begins a bit of gradual as they alter to all of the adjustments. 

DraftKings win whole: 8.5 (below -160)
Brinson projected report: 6-11

The quarterback issues are fairly massive in Pittsburgh. The Steelers upgraded to Russell Wilson/Justin Fields, however Wilson hasn’t even been on the sector throughout a lot of coaching camp. That throws issues into extreme flux on the place. Fields may very well be a fantasy darling, however I do not know if his athletic type of quarterbacking will essentially translate to a bunch of wins. The departure of Diontae Johnson means the Steelers are missing on the large receiver depth chart. George Pickens has limitless upside together with his skillset. After him, there was buzz about Van Jefferson as their WR2, though Calvin Austin III and Roman Wilson have made some attention-grabbing noise in coaching camp. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are bodily runners, and I are likely to suppose an Arthur Smith offense goes to characteristic them closely. I do not anticipate this to be an explosive unit. Defensively, if the Steelers are the top-five unit they are often, this may find yourself wanting like a silly projection. Fifteen-plus video games of T.J. Watt is an absolute should due to how this protection drops off when he is out of the lineup. 

DraftKings win whole: 11.5 (below -125)
Brinson projected report: 11-6

The Niners have probably the most full rosters in all of soccer. They’re coming off three straight years advancing to the NFC title sport together with a brutal additional time Tremendous Bowl loss to the Chiefs final 12 months. They’re rightfully one of many high Tremendous Bowl favorites. However there’s some trigger for concern with the current offseason developments. Christian McCaffrey suffered a calf harm that should not be a giant deal however undoubtedly has my antenna up. Brandon Aiyuk nonetheless may get traded or he won’t! Trent Williams stays sad together with his contract. There’s only a lot swirling across the Niners, and it is a huge quantity for any workforce. Be aware the Vegas juice right here, with the expectation the 49ers find yourself coming in below 12 wins. The schedule is not significantly brutal, however there are sufficient pitfalls the place I feel 11-6 is firmly on the desk, particularly if the NFC West finally ends up being pretty much as good as we expect it may very well be. 

DraftKings win whole: 7.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected report: 9-8

The Seahawks are a troublesome projection due to the wholesale adjustments occurring throughout the group. The personnel is basically unchanged, however Mike MacDonald represents the Seahawks’ first new coach in a very long time and may deliver with him an attention-grabbing new method. Pete Carroll is a Corridor of Famer, however MacDonald bringing in offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb might lead to some splashy offensive manufacturing. Geno Smith (and even Sam Howell) have three thrilling receivers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to make the most of in the identical manner the three Washington rookies have been used final 12 months on the faculty stage. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet present big-play potential within the backfield and we would lastly get a Noah Fant breakout. MacDonald’s killed it on protection for years with the Ravens, so the expectations are excessive for that aspect of the ball as effectively. I am a bit of greater on Seattle than Vegas and positively see the Seahawks as a playoff sleeper this 12 months. 

DraftKings win whole: 7.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected report: 9-8

Everybody counted out the Bucs in a BAD manner final 12 months and Baker Mayfield and Co. jammed it in everybody’s face. I am extraordinarily afraid of it taking place once more with this projection, and I would not be shocked in any respect if Tampa gained the division once more. It might even win it at 9-8, so possibly I am not that far off. Regardless, nobody will run away with the NFC South. The bull case for he Bucs is fairly straightforward: including Jalen McMillan will assist the passing sport, much more so if new OC Liam Coen strikes Chris Godwin to the slot. Early returns for Graham Barton paint the image of one other first-round OL hit by GM Jason Lichte. The protection has a number of studs on it already (Vita Vea, Antoine Winfield Jr., and many others) and another high-caliber gamers who might emerge this 12 months and make Tampa a contender once more. Vegas clearly agrees with a closely juiced over right here.

DraftKings win whole: 6.5 (below -135)
Brinson projected report: 6-11

Yet one more whole wild card with the full-blown changeover from a earlier regime. For me, it was all the time going to be a tough promote on whoever changed Mike Vrabel, however I am excessive on Brian Callahan and what this workforce has in place for 2024. DeAndre Hopkins‘ harm is regarding however he needs to be again early within the common season, plus the addition of Calvin Ridley offers them a bit of wiggle room. Callahan bringing his dad, Invoice Callahan, is very large for the offensive line, to not point out the addition of JC Latham within the first spherical. Defensively this workforce is a complete wild card, and if the protection is not good we might see the offense throwing the ball a TON. I do not suppose the Titans will essentially be “good” this 12 months, however I feel we’ll see sufficient from Will Levis and the brand new teaching workers to the purpose everybody type of thinks that even a six-win season may very well be thought-about a constructive step ahead. 

DraftKings win whole: 6.5 (over -130)
Brinson projected report: 7-10

One other wholesale change on the subject of the regime in cost — Dan Quinn is in and he introduced Kliff Kingsbury with him in addition to a brand new quarterback in Jayden Daniels, whom the Commanders drafted second general following his Heisman season. The offensive line is a serious concern, however possibly Daniels’ mobility could make up for it? There are sufficient weapons right here to maaaaaybe make a bull case for competing within the NFC East, however Terry McLaurin must be his regular constant self, Jahan Dotson must reside as much as his draft billing and Austin Ekeler wants to search out the fountain of youth. This workforce will play quick on offense and wishes Quinn to determine tips on how to elevate a middle-tier protection if it needs to finish. Issues needs to be on the upswing in Washington, although.