Breaking down the UCL draw: Straightforward street for Actual Madrid and Liverpool, panic for PSG?

Effectively, the draw for the league section of the 2024-24 UEFA Champions League is full after some enjoyable with computer systems, large UEFA-branded buttons (ably pushed by Cristiano Ronaldo) and a ton of fixtures, let’s take a breath and break issues down! Which elite groups acquired a straightforward draw? How does the pathway search for defending champions Real Madrid? What about Manchester City? And the way about Paris Saint-Germain with out Kylian Mbappé?

With the opponents recognized — and a full schedule of fixtures to observe on Saturday — ESPN’s specialists break down the draw for a number of the greatest groups in addition to their probabilities of reaching the knockout section.

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Soar to a workforce:
Arsenal | Aston Villa | Atletico Madrid | Barcelona
Bayer Leverkusen | Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund | Liverpool | Man City
PSG | Real Madrid

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MANCHESTER CITY

Residence opponents: Inter, Membership Brugge, Feyenoord. Sparta Prague
Away opponents: PSG, Juventus, Sporting Lisbon, Slovan Bratislava

Evaluation: Man Metropolis have change into Champions League specialists beneath Pep Guardiola, however whereas their league section draw may have been worse, it additionally may have been kinder. They averted Actual Madrid and Bayern Munich in Pot 1, however a visit to Paris Saint-Germain — the place they misplaced within the group stage in 2021 — represents a tricky take a look at, despite the fact that supervisor Luis Enrique can not name upon Kylian Mbappe.

Juventus had been among the many strongest groups in Pot 2 and never solely had been Metropolis paired with them, however they should journey to Turin. Throw in an away recreation at Sporting Lisbon, and Guardiola’s workforce should navigate a tough fixture record on the street.

The upside for Metropolis is their residence fixtures and it is value remembering that they have not misplaced a Champions League recreation on the Etihad Stadium since defeat to Lyon in September 2018. Residence video games towards Inter, Membership Brugge, Feyenoord and Sparta Prague should not give them many issues, and taking 12 factors from these matches ought to get them inside touching distance of a spot within the prime eight.

In the end, that might be Guardiola’s first aim; to ensure Metropolis get a bye into the last-16 and do not need to hassle with a two-legged play-off. If nothing else, Guardiola will not need the effort of two additional video games shoehorned into an already packed marketing campaign.

Metropolis final failed to achieve the Champions League knock-out rounds in 2012, they usually will not anticipate to interrupt that streak this season. They should money in on a sort residence fixture record, however after going 31 European matches unbeaten on the Etihad, they’re greater than able to doing so. Journeys to PSG and Juventus are probably the most problematic and may change into much more so relying on the place they land within the schedule.

Probabilities of advancing: Something lower than a top-eight end might be a disappointment. They need to attain the last-16 for the twelfth yr in a row. — Rob Dawson

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LIVERPOOL

Residence opponents: Actual Madrid, Leverkusen, Lille, Bologna
Away opponents: RB Leipzig, AC Milan, PSV Eindhoven, Girona

Evaluation: Liverpool’s greatest bonus from the draw is that their hardest opponents should journey to Anfield. Spanish champions and reigning Champion League kings Actual Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen, final season’s invincible Bundesliga champions, are the massive hazard to Liverpool, however Arne Slot’s aspect will not need to play them away because of the format of the brand new competitors.

The prize for all the groups with expectations of successful the Champions League is to complete within the prime two of the league stage to be able to seal the perfect path to the ultimate, so Liverpool have each probability of successful all eight video games due to the way in which the fixtures have fallen for them. Remaining residence video games towards Lille and Bologna is not going to be a fear for Liverpool, whereas none of their away video games — RB Leipzig, AC Milan, PSV Eindhoven, Girona — may very well be classed as daunting fixtures. It may have been a unique story had Slot’s aspect been compelled to journey to Madrid and Leverkusen.

In some ways, this actually is a dream draw for Liverpool they usually could not have hand-picked their schedule any higher.

The place are the potential pitfalls? Actual and Leverkusen will nonetheless be a problem at Anfield, regardless of the house benefit, whereas AC Milan might be backed by a raucous crowd at San Siro. However let’s not attempt to make this draw sound worse than it’s. Liverpool might be delighted with it they usually have an actual probability of banking sufficient wins to prime the league.

Probabilities of advancing: Liverpool will coast into the knock-out stage, and will even win all eight video games. — Mark Ogden

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ARSENAL

Residence opponents: Paris Saint-Germain, Shakhtar Donetsk, Dinamo Zagreb, AS Monaco
Away opponents: Inter Milan, Atalanta, Sporting Lisbon, Girona

Evaluation: Arsenal averted champions Actual Madrid in addition to the workforce (Bayern Munich) that knocked them out on the quarterfinal stage in 2023-24, and so Mikel Arteta could be moderately content material with their draw. Dealing with PSG with out Mbappe must be a extra palatable proposition, too, though Inter Milan are Serie A title-holders and reached the Champions League Ultimate simply two years in the past.

Arteta has been eager so as to add power in depth within the switch market — so he can rotate his workforce throughout numerous competitions with out the extent of efficiency dropping an excessive amount of — and this fixture record ought to afford him some respiratory house to do this, with favorable-looking residence video games towards Shakhtar, Dinamo Zagreb and AS Monaco. A take a look at of the Gunners’ progress beneath Arteta will come towards Sporting, nonetheless, given the Portuguese aspect knocked them out of the Europa League in March 2023 in a two-legged tie that featured an entertaining 2-2 attract Lisbon. Atalanta completed fourth in final season’s Serie A, however received their first European trophy of their historical past — and first of any description for 61 years — by beating the hitherto unbeatable Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 within the Europa League last. The one workforce to beat them at residence in that run was one other English workforce: Liverpool.

Monaco’s go to to Emirates Stadium gives a fast return to his former membership for Folarin Balogun. The USMNT ahead left Arsenal in a £35m deal in August 2023 regardless of scoring 22 targets on mortgage at Reims within the earlier season. The Gunners felt they had been higher off with out him; Balogun, 23, will now get an opportunity to show which will have been a mistake.

Probabilities of advancing: Arsenal will anticipate to progress comfortably, however they need to enhance their report on the street, having received simply certainly one of their 5 away video games in final season’s Champions League. — James Olley

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BAYERN MUNICH

Residence opponents: PSG, Benfica, GNK Dinamo, Slovan Bratislava
Away opponents: Barcelona, Shakhtar Donetsk, Feyenoord, Aston Villa

Evaluation: Total, Bayern Munich would have absolutely taken this. Whereas there is no emotional homecoming for Vincent Kompany with Bayern dodging Manchester Metropolis, their hardest match might be a visit to Barcelona however other than that, they will fancy their probabilities of successful the remaining. PSG and Benfica will provide stern asks on the Allianz Enviornment, although GNK Dinamo and Slovan Bratislava must be simple. Shakhtar Donetsk are enjoying their residence matches in Gelsenkirchen this yr, which means a brief journey to the north-west of Germany for Bayern, whereas they may head to Feyenoord and Aston Villa assured of selecting up victories.

PSG and Bayern have loved a number of battles through the years, with Bayern knocking them out of the event on the Spherical of 16 stage in 2023, whereas there can even be echoes of Bayern’s demolition of Barcelona again within the 2020 quarterfinals when it was Hansi Flick who masterminded their 8-2 victory. Now Flick’s in command of the Catalans and he’ll be managing a workforce nonetheless that includes a few gamers like Marc-André ter Stegen and Frenkie de Jong who can have recurring nightmares of that night.

Total, Bayern can have their sights set on the latter phases of the event, whereas for Harry Kane, it’s going to provide an opportunity for him to finish his career-long watch for a home trophy. They’re going to have the likes of Michael Olise and João Palhinha serving to them in that quest, whereas it stays to be seen what occurs to Kingsley Coman within the remaining days of the switch window.

Probabilities of advancing: Bayern ought to make the top-eight and attain the last-16 for the seventeenth yr in a row. — Tom Hamilton

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BARCELONA

Residence opponents: Bayern Munich, Atalanta, Young Boys, Brest
Away opponents: Borussia Dortmund, Benfica, Crvena Zvezda, Monaco

Evaluation: Barcelona’s hardest opponent is Bayern, so they are going to be completely satisfied it is a residence fixture on the Olympic Stadium. Bayern have been Barça’s bête noire lately and the sport will carry again reminiscences of the German aspect’s 8-2 win in 2020, when present Barça coach Flick sat within the reverse dugout. That stated, Barça might reasonably have drawn Bayern than a Man Metropolis or a PSG as a result of there stays an air of uncertainty round them beneath new coach Vincent Kompany.

Dortmund away might be awkward, too, however once more it is arguably higher than a visit to Metropolis, PSG and even Liverpool. Total, although, you think about Barça might be proud of their collection of fixtures as they appear to construct on final season’s quarterfinal look.

Most significantly, it is a chance for Flick’s younger, however gifted, workforce to show themselves towards the continent’s prime sides. Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Ferran Torres, Fermín López and new signing Dani Olmo had been all a part of Spain‘s victorious squad on the European Championships and can take that have into this season. Pau Cubarsí received Olympic gold, Alejandro Balde is again from harm and Gavi will return within the coming months, with MarcTer Stegen, Jules Koundé, De Jong, Raphinha and Robert Lewandowski all including expertise.

Probabilities of advancing: Barça will advance, however the query is whether or not they end within the prime eight, progressing straight to the final 16, or if they may end decrease and need to play a knockout recreation first. Even being pessimistic, I nonetheless reckon they get 16-18 factors, which can have them hovering across the prime eight. — Sam Marsden

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REAL MADRID

Residence opponents: Borussia Dortmund, AC Milan, FC Salzburg, Stuttgart
Away opponents: Liverpool, Atalanta, Lille, Brest

Evaluation: Actual Madrid’s draw for the league section is a tricky one, nevertheless it incorporates precisely the sort of large, glamorous European names — Liverpool, AC Milan, Borussia Dortmund — that Madrid need to be going through regularly. Seven of their eight opponents are from Europe’s “Huge 5” leagues — two German groups, two Italians, two French and one English — with the exception being Austria‘s Salzburg. Which means Mbappé might be heading again to France twice, to play Lille (and his brother) and Brest.

There are some acquainted opponents. Madrid beat Dortmund in final season’s Champions League last, whereas they bested Atalanta on this month’s UEFA Tremendous Cup, and beat Liverpool to win the event in 2018 and 2022. The away journey to Liverpool seems to be like Madrid’s greatest take a look at, nevertheless it’s one they will relish, given Anfield’s mythic standing in Spain.

Probabilities of advancing: That is Actual Madrid, within the Champions League. In fact they will advance. Madrid are likely to rise to the problem towards the most important names in Europe, nevertheless it’ll be value watching how they get on towards lesser-known sides like Stuttgart and Brest, when they won’t have the identical stage of motivation. Madrid’s report within the outdated group stage was impeccable — they had been by no means eradicated, all the time reaching the knockout stage in that format — and something aside from a serene passage right here can be a serious shock. — Alex Kirkland

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PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN

Residence opponents: Manchester Metropolis, Atletico Madrid, PSV, Girona
Away opponents: Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Salzburg, Stuttgart

Evaluation: That is each a tricky group for PSG, and a largely unknown one. Robust as a result of they’ve been drawn with two of the three prime groups from Pot 1, Bayern Munich and Manchester Metropolis, whereas additionally paired with the 2 greatest groups of Pot 2 in Arsenal and Atletico Madrid! Their journeys to Munich and London might be very attention-grabbing whereas the Parc des Princes might be on hearth for the reception of Manchester Metropolis, who received in Paris within the semifinal, first leg, in 2021 and likewise misplaced there when Leo Messi scored, and Atletico Madrid, who’ve by no means confronted the Parisians.

Like Atletico, going through Girona, RB Salzburg and Stuttgart might be all new for the French champions. They’ve by no means performed towards them. Going again to Spain to face Atletico and Girona may not be a nasty factor, as PSG did effectively crossing the Pyrenees final season once they defeated Real Sociedad and Barcelona final season.

For this younger squad with out superstars and with out Mbappé for the primary time in eight years, this might be an awesome journey to develop and to enhance collectively and individually. However the goal is to achieve a minimum of the final eight.

Probabilities of advancing: PSG will advance, nevertheless it could be robust to complete within the prime eight. The order of their matches might be necessary, particularly the timing of once they play the opposite greatest 4 groups of their schedule. I believe they’ll attain 15 to 16 factors, which may very well be sufficient to complete within the prime eight. — Julien Laurens

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ATLETICO MADRID

Residence opponents: RB Leipzig, Bayer Leverkusen, Lille, Slovan Bratislava
Away opponents: PSG, Benfica, FC Salzburg, Sparta Prague

Evaluation: Atleti have strengthened their squad this summer time, with the additions of Julián Álvarez from Manchester Metropolis, Chelsea‘s Conor Gallagher and Barcelona’s Clément Lenglet amongst others, so they may anticipate to go deep into this season Champions League.

They face a tricky run of fixtures away from residence, with PSG, Benfica and FC Salzburg all sturdy on residence turf. Sparta Prague’s qualifying spherical win towards Malmo within the Czech capital highlighted the ambiance on the Epet Enviornment, they usually can completely pose a menace to Diego Simeone’s aspect. It is not a straightforward path at residence for Atleti, both. Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig might be robust to beat, making it essential that Simeone’s workforce beat Lille and Slovan Bratislava whereas avoiding defeat of their different two video games in Madrid.

However whereas this seems to be a difficult draw for Atleti, no person ought to underestimate the sturdiness and character of a workforce that has regularly punched above its weight within the Champions League beneath Simeone. They’ve the expertise and skill to go to Paris and Lisbon and win their hardest away video games, so Atleti might be a stay contender during this stage. To make it into the Spherical of 16 with no need a play-off, Atleti should end within the prime eight and that appears to be a tall order due to the way in which the draw has performed out for them.

Probabilities of advancing: Good, however they may possible need to undergo the Play-Off stage earlier than making it to the Spherical of 16. — Ogden

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BORUSSIA DORTMUND

Residence opponents: Barcelona, Shakhtar Donetsk, Celtic, Sturm Graz
Away opponents: Actual Madrid, Membership Brugge, Dinamo Zagreb, Bologna

Evaluation: When Borussia Dortmund’s supervisor Nuri Sahin was requested on Thursday which groups he needed to face within the Champions League, he picked out two of his former sides: Liverpool and Actual Madrid. His needs had been answered, as Cristiano Ronaldo and his magic button supplied BVB a visit to Actual. That’ll see Jude Bellingham lining up towards his former membership as soon as once more in what might be a repeat of final yr’s Champions League last.

Other than that tough journey to Madrid, Dortmund will take the draw they have been handed. Barcelona at residence might be robust, the place they will want the facility of the yellow wall behind them, however they may anticipate to beat Shakhtar Donetsk, Celtic and Sturm Graz at Sign Iduna Park. On the street, they will have a brief journey to Membership Brugge, plus coin-toss matches in Zagreb and Bologna.

Borussia Dortmund are a workforce in transition beneath Sahin, with a slew of summer time signings and a gaggle looking for a technique to be extra dominant in matches. No matter which stage they’re at of their evolution, that is very manageable set of fixtures for a aspect that is added Pascal Groß, Waldemar Anton, Maximilian Beier, Yan Couto and Serhou Guirassy within the offseason.

Probabilities of advancing: Borussia Dortmund ought to make the highest eight and progress comfortably to the knockout phases. — Hamilton

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BAYER LEVERKUSEN

Residence opponents: Inter Milan, AC Milan, FC Salzburg, Sparta Praha
Away opponents: Liverpool, Atletico Madrid, Feyenoord, Brest

Evaluation: This can be a tough set of fixtures for Xabi Alonso’s workforce, and a focus is instantly drawn to their journey to Anfield. Xabi Alonso loved 5 years at Liverpool and was linked to the job on the finish of final season after Jurgen Klopp stepped down. However Alonso felt like he had unfinished enterprise at Leverkusen — a lot to their delight — and having conquered Germany, they appear to go one higher within the Champions League than the category of 2002, who reached the ultimate solely to run right into a Zinedine Zidane-inspired Actual Madrid.

They’re nonetheless on their exceptional unbeaten run on the home entrance, nevertheless it was their 3-0 defeat to Atalanta within the last of the Europa League final time period that prevented them from finishing an unimaginable undefeated season — and a treble. It will not be misplaced on them that they’ve drawn each Milan giants in Inter and AC. That stated, each might be welcomed to the BayArena whereas FC Salzburg — beneath Klopp’s former assistant, Pep Lijnders — and Sparta Praha can even make the journey to North Rhine-Westphalia. In addition they have the unenviable job of travelling to Atletico Madrid — a workforce that knocked them out of the Champions League in each 2017 and 2015 — whereas Feyenoord and Brest additionally await them on the street.

It stays to be seen if Leverkusen can maintain on to their star centre again Jonathan Tah, who has been continually linked with a transfer away from the membership in the summertime with each Bayern Munich and Barcelona linked. The chief concern concerning their progress could be how they handle a bruising season. Battling on each the Champions League entrance and within the Bundesliga will take a look at the depth and sturdiness of Alonso’s squad.

Probabilities of advancing: Bayer Leverkusen ought to attain the knockouts, and anticipate loads of late targets within the course of. — Hamilton

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ASTON VILLA

Residence opponents: Bayern Munich, Juventus, Bologna, Celtic
Away opponents: Younger Boys, Brugge, Leipzig, Monaco

Evaluation: When you have been away from Europe’s greatest competitors for over 40 years, you actually need to make up for misplaced time and Villa have definitely performed that with their draw. Unai Emery and his gamers — to not point out the Villa followers — have hit the jackpot.

Villa followers who keep in mind the membership’s 1982 European Cup win towards Bayern Munich will be capable to make a journey down Reminiscence Lane once they face the Bundesliga giants at Villa Park, whereas the go to of one other European heavyweight in Juventus, who dethroned Villa as European champions in 1983, is one other large fixture for the membership. And simply so as to add to the sense of Villa returning to the massive time with a bang, a house recreation towards Scottish champions Celtic will guarantee an-all British conflict at Villa Park.

Whereas Villa will relish Champions League nights once more, the truth is that they may face an uphill job to achieve the Spherical of 16 stage. Bayern and Juventus might be robust obstacles to beat and each away recreation might be a problem, however with solely eight groups dropping out of the competitors, Villa may simply be capable to scrape into the play-off stage. It will not be straightforward.

Probabilities of advancing: Slim. They acquired a tricky draw with loads of large nights at Villa Park, however extra glamour means a a lot tougher route. — Ogden