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76ers' best-case and worst-case situation: With Paul George and Joel Embiid, can this roster recover from the hump?

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September 23, 2024

It is quite a bit simpler to preview the 2024-25 Philadelphia 76ers than it was to preview the earlier iteration. This time final yr, the Sixers had modified coaches and added some gamers on minimal contracts, however they entered coaching camp in limbo, with a star participant’s commerce request hanging over the workforce for the second time in three seasons. Philadelphia normal supervisor Daryl Morey has lengthy stated that rosters should not be judged in July as in the event that they’re completed merchandise; on account of James Harden’s opt-in-and-ask-out maneuver, it was unattainable to evaluate that specific roster till the final day of October.

The Harden commerce did not return one other star, but it surely set the stage for the Sixers to make the most important splash of the summer season. When the Los Angeles Clippers obtained stingy with unrestricted free agent Paul George, Philadelphia swooped in with a most contract supply and introduced Dr. J to his doorstep. Tyrese Maxey, who made his first All-Star look and earned the Most Improved Participant award in 2023-24, agreed to max contract on the primary day of free company, too, and Morey’s entrance workplace spent the remainder of the offseason filling gaps: Kelly Oubre Jr. returned on the room midlevel and Kyle Lowry returned for the minimal. Andre Drummond took a piece of what remained of Philly’s cap house, and, miraculously, Caleb Martin took the remaining. Eric Gordon and Reggie Jackson joined on minimums, too, as did ebullient French ahead Guerschon Yabusele, after dunking on LeBron James within the gold medal recreation on the Paris Olympics.

The Sixers would certainly like to have one other French ahead, Nicolas Batum, however the 35-year-old left for the Clippers, who supplied him the bi-annual exception. General, although, after creating the flexibleness to do one thing that just about by no means occurs nowadays — land a professional star in free company — Philadelphia seems to have checked nearly each field, together with one that may give Morey an avenue to test off a further field down the highway: Ok.J. Martin re-signed on a two-year, $16 million deal that’s non-guaranteed in 12 months 2, which makes him concurrently a possible rotation participant for the Sixers and effectively a trade exception. When franchise participant Joel Embiid signed a contract extension final Friday, it felt like one thing of a formality. Sure, the workforce is coming off a first-round exit, however Embiid has two stars at his facet, complementary function gamers with expertise and a championship-winning coach (Nick Nurse) who has already helped increase his recreation. Why would not he need to keep?

The state of play

Final yr: The Sixers had been executed with the Harden distraction by Halloween, and Embiid took to Nurse’s new offense from the beginning, outperforming his MVP season till a meniscus harm derailed every little thing. Regardless of ending the common season on an eight-game profitable streak, they completed 47-35 (No. 15 on offense, No. 11 on protection) and needed to win a play-in recreation, which earned them a first-round matchup with the Knicks, a slugfest that featured a 50-point Sport 3 from Embiid, a 46-point Sport 5 from Maxey and a heartbreaking, season-ending loss in Sport 6 on their house courtroom.

The offseason: Oubre and Martin aren’t lights-out shooters, however they’re house run signings and certain starters. Philly is aware of precisely what to anticipate of Drummond and Lowry, and it looks as if a perfect vacation spot for Gordon and Yabusele. All of those smaller strikes deserve reward, however they had been solely attainable due to the large one — once you put a Huge 3 collectively, gamers need to be a part of the social gathering. (And the large one was solely attainable as a result of the Sixers had been prepared to let a bunch of fellows stroll. On that be aware, goodbye to Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, Buddy Hield, Paul Reed, Cameron Payne and Mo Bamba. Robert Covington stays unsigned.) The Sixers’ pair of draftees — No. 16 decide Jared McCain and No. 41 decide Adem Bona — appear to be an especially enjoyable dangle. 

Finest-case situation for 2024-25: Philly sends three gamers to the All-Star Sport and finishes the common season with a top-five offense, a top-five protection and the perfect document within the Japanese Convention, however everyone picks the Celtics to repeat anyway, which makes it a thousand instances sweeter for the Sixers when Embiid bullies Boston within the convention finals en path to their first championship in 42 years, which the person who nicknamed himself The Course of punctuates by demanding Sam Hinkie’s presence on the parade upon accepting his Finals MVP award.

Worst-case situation for 2024-25: Philly does not flame out, precisely, however the vets all decline and, due to a collection of accidents — and an odd, solely vaguely defined absence on account of “sickness” — the Sixers’ full beginning 5 does not play greater than three consecutive video games collectively till April, a state of affairs that enables their fan base to fairly see championship upside in a workforce that finishes the common season fifth within the East, just for their desires to be dashed when, regardless of Embiid lastly being wholesome on the proper time, they lose one other coin-flip collection within the first spherical.

The dialog

Sixers believer: I can not imagine they really pulled it off! After the Harden commerce, I figured the Sixers wanted to make their subsequent massive transfer earlier than final yr’s deadline, since free company mainly does not exist anymore (for stars, anyway). I used to be incorrect, clearly, however I am nonetheless unsure my considering was off. I imply, sure, PAUL GEORGE is manner higher than anybody they had been going to get in trade for Tobias Harris’ expiring contract and picks, however what had been the chances that they had been truly going to get PAUL GEORGE? I concurrently need to give Daryl Morey all of the credit score on this planet for establishing the perfect workforce of the Embiid period and scream that your complete factor occurred due to dumb luck. Why on this planet did the Clippers mainly hand PG over?

Sixers skeptic: I assumed you had been purported to be pro-Sixers. You are roasting Morey?

Sixers believer: No! I am in awe of Morey. He knew the danger right here. There was this one superb final result, after which there have been a bunch of far more possible outcomes, none of which had been even near superb. I’m not positive I may have gone by way of with it, however I’ve no alternative however to salute everybody concerned in PG coming to Philadelphia. Shoutout to Dr. J!

Sixers skeptic: I am positive it was Dr. J who sealed the deal, not the 4 years of max cash. Wait, no, maybe it was Lil Dicky. Anyway, now that we have established you are a Morey stan, I need to ask: Are you positive that signing George was even a great transfer? I perceive that it was an spectacular transfer, however is that this the front-office equal of creating a contested fadeaway jumper? Within the period of the second apron, I am not satisfied that it is smart to go after a 3rd star in any respect, not to mention this specific one, who will flip 38 throughout the 2028 playoffs and make $56.6 million that season. I truly applaud the Clippers for drawing a line within the sand, and I feel the Sixers would have been higher off utilizing their cap house to encompass Embiid and Maxey with a superior supporting forged. That form of offseason would not have been as flashy, however, as Morey is aware of, an open nook 3 is preferable to a contested fadeaway.

Sixers believer: Congratulations, you’ve got galaxy-brained your self into an analogy so nonsensical that I’m loath to even reply to it. However I’ve to, so right here goes: The star participant is the open nook 3! That is how the NBA works! If given the possibility to signal a few my favourite function gamers or signal a real star, I am taking the star each time. Depth is vital, for positive — and Philly did an superior job including depth after the George signing — however essentially the most environment friendly manner for any workforce to spend its cash is on stars. This would be the case so long as you possibly can solely put 5 gamers on the courtroom, and, so far as I do know, that did not change within the new CBA.

Sixers skeptic: Hmm, how far did the Phoenix Suns and their Huge 3 get final season? I appear to recollect specialists praising them for his or her “sensible” minimal signings, so I might like to attend and see earlier than declaring that the Sixers did an “superior” job with theirs. Eric Gordon was one in every of Phoenix’s supposedly nice signings, by the best way, and the Yuta Watanabe signing obtained web dorks about as excited because the Yabu signing did this summer season. There may be reality to what you are saying about stars and function gamers — you’d slightly have a greenback than 4 quarters, usually — however the math adjustments when A) you have already got two stars and B) the third one destroys your flexibility. What are Philadelphia’s outs if George falls off dramatically within the subsequent couple of seasons? Substitute him with a minimal man?

Sixers believer: Philadelphia shouldn’t be Phoenix, and this Huge 3 shouldn’t be that Huge 3. George is the precise kind of participant the Sixers have wanted for years, and it is bizarre to maintain harping on the concept that he may not be fairly pretty much as good on the finish of this contract. Embiid is an MVP-caliber participant proper now, and nobody is aware of how lengthy his prime will final. If the Sixers weren’t prepared to supply George 4 years, they weren’t getting him, so that they supplied him 4 years. That is what you do once you’re making an attempt to win a championship. Additionally, we actually need not speak about depth and suppleness as in the event that they’re these summary issues that Philadelphia might need sacrificed. Take a look at the precise roster and the precise cap sheet! The Sixers have depth, they’ve the Ok.J. Martin contract they usually have future picks to commerce, which implies they do certainly have flexibility.

Sixers skeptic: I am wanting on the roster now. It is … fairly good! On paper, it is undoubtedly one of many high 5 – 6 rosters within the league, assuming everyone is wholesome. I do not suppose the Celtics are notably apprehensive about this Huge 3, although, and I would not decide Philly in a seven-game collection in opposition to the Knicks or Bucks. If I had been a Sixers fan, I might be worrying about groups daring Kelly Oubre Jr. and Caleb Martin to shoot and I might be apprehensive in regards to the collective age of the second unit. I might additionally discover it tough to look at Embiid and George play within the common season with out being terrified that one in every of them would get harm. You have no of those considerations?

Sixers believer: These are honest considerations, I suppose, however I may decide related nits about all of the groups you talked about, even the mighty Celtics. (In contrast to Philly, they’ve an injured middle to fret about, slightly than the idea of an injured middle.) And in case you’re so scared {that a} star will get harm, is not it nice that the Sixers now have three of them? Past that, I figured they’d in all probability lose Oubre to a workforce that might pay him extra money, however as an alternative they saved him and someway stole Martin from Miami. I liked what Lowry brought to the team final yr, I really like Gordon’s deep 3-pointers and I really like that Philly will get some further possessions when Drummond is on the ground. Possibly you are proper that the defending champs aren’t targeted on what the Sixers did in the summertime, however I wager Morey and Nick Nurse are fascinated about the Celtics continually. Embiid, George and Maxey ought to be, too. Philly is coming for them.

Sixers skeptic: Eh, I favored the workforce with Butler in his prime higher, however no matter. I am going to allow you to get again to celebrating Embiid’s new contract extension. I am positive that, in your view, there’s zero threat by any means in betting that his physique will maintain up in his mid-30s.

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