2024 NFL group win totals, odds, picks, greatest bets: Guess on the Rams and Payments, however fade Giants

The 2024 NFL common season is nearly right here, and we’re about to find if all our preconceived notions have been correct, or not. If you have not positioned a wager on NFL futures but, that is what we’re right here that will help you with at the moment. 

As I do yearly, I requested every of our CBS Sports activities NFL staffers to present me their greatest Over/Underneath win whole bets. Earlier than we get began, here is the rundown on the panel: Senior NFL writers Pete Prisco and Will Brinson, plus CBS Sports activities editors Joel Magaraci and Eric Kernish together with writers John Breech, Ryan Wilson, Jordan Dajani, Jared Dubin, Josh Edwards, Tyler Sullivan, Bryan DeArdo, Cody Benjamin and Garrett Podell. 

We are going to listing each win whole for context, however not all groups can have a “greatest wager.” Let’s go forward and leap in.

All NFL odds are by way of Caesars Sportsbook.

• Over 7 (-125) | Underneath 7 (+105)

• Over 9.5 (-140) | Underneath 9.5 (+120)

• Over 10.5 (-110) | Underneath 10.5 (-110)

• Over 10.5 (+135) | Underneath 10.5 (-160)

Dubin: Over 10.5: The final time Buffalo gained fewer than 11 video games was again in 2019, when the season was nonetheless 16 video games lengthy and Josh Allen hadn’t had his true breakout but. Individuals are WAY too low on the Payments this yr, and if I am getting plus cash (+135) to wager on this group basically hitting its flooring, that appears like stealing. 

Brinson: Over 10.5: Buffalo is getting the identical therapy in 2024 because the Chiefs bought in 2022 after they traded away Tyreek Hill. Stefon Diggs absence hurts however it may find yourself being a internet constructive for the locker room and for turning Josh Allen into a greater total distributor of the soccer. Dalton Kincaid is about to blow up on the scene as a star and Khalil Shakir may find yourself having an excellent season. Identical goes for Curtis Samuel, who had the most efficient yr of his profession with Joe Brady as his OC in 2020 with the Panthers. Buffalo’s being slept on and can show everybody mistaken in a short time and all through the season.

Wilson: Over 10.5: On the floor, going over 10.5 wins appears, nicely, excessive. However whenever you take a look at the schedule, and the total understanding that Josh Allen is poised for his greatest season but, I really feel like this group is nearer to a 13-win outfit. Sure, there are depth issues at security, and edge rusher, and Matt Milano’s damage might be problematic, however I believe the offensive line is quietly the most effective items within the league, James Cook and rookie Ray Davis are poised to place up massive numbers within the backfield, and even when Keon Coleman wants a while to get acclimated in a post-Stefon Diggs world, anticipate the tight ends, beginning with Dalton Kincaid to place up massive numbers. From Week 11-13 the Payments host the Chiefs, have their bye, host the 49ers and journey to the Rams — I’ve them going 3-0 throughout that stretch. And if that performs out, do not be shocked in the event that they lastly make their manner again to the Super Bowl. 

• Over 5.5 (-115) | Underneath 5.5 (-105)

• Over 9 (+105) | Underneath 9 (-125)

• Over 10.5 (-120) | Underneath 10.5 (+100)

• Over 8.5 (-140) | Underneath 8.5 (+120)

• Over 9.5 (-150) | Underneath 9.5 (+125)

Edwards: Over 9.5: I went 2-0 on final yr’s Over/Underneath projections so fade this yr’s picks in the event you consider in water discovering its stage in gambling. Dallas went 12-5 final yr and the core of that group stays intact. If one has issues about playoff efficiency because it pertains to the Cowboys, I perceive, however common season has not been the problem. Tony Pollard and Dan Quinn should not value a lack of 2.5 wins. 

• Over 6 (-140) | Underneath 6 (+118)

DeArdo: Over 6: Do not sleep on Sean Payton’s Broncos, who seem like a significantly higher group than final yr’s 8-win outfit. Clearly, quite a lot of the Broncos’ success this season rides on Bo Nix and the way nicely the rookie quarterback adjusts to life within the NFL. Happily for him, he has a head coach that should not put him in too many dangerous spots and a protection that ought to be ok to bail him out at any time when he makes a mistake.

• Over 10.5 (-130) | Underneath 10.5 (+110)

Breech: Over 10.5: The Lions gained 12 video games final season and I believe they’re roster is definitely even higher this yr, so I will not be shocked in the event that they win a minimum of 12 video games once more. Additionally, the Lions get to play 13 of their first 14 video games indoors, which looks like an excellent factor for a group that that appears to thrive when enjoying inside. 

• Over 9.5 (-160) | Underneath 9.5 (+135)

Benjamin: Over 9.5: Sure, the Detroit Lions is likely to be probably the most balanced group within the NFL. Sure, the Chicago Bears have some razzle-dazzle with Caleb Williams. Sure, the Minnesota Vikings have sufficient seasoned playmakers to remain scrappy. However Jordan Love was the true deal when the lights bought brighter in 2023, and he is bought one other yr of chemistry along with his younger supporting forged. Matt LaFleur’s a perennial Coach of the Yr candidate as nicely.

Prisco: Over 9.5: This group is loaded and we noticed what Jordan Love can do within the second half of final season. The change in defensive coordinators will actually assist. They’re the group to beat of their division in my thoughts. 

Podell: Over 9.5: The Packers’ newest window of competition is simply starting. Quarterback Jordan Love threw for 32 touchdowns in his first common season because the starter, together with an NFL-best 18-1 landing to interception ratio from Weeks 11-18, ending the yr on tear. That led to Inexperienced Bay squeaking into the postseason because the NFC’s seventh seed, and so they destroyed the second-seeded Dallas Cowboys 48-32, in a matchup they led 27-0. 

Love set the Packers’ single sport playoff information for passer score (157.2) and yards per go try (13) after carving up Dallas’ top-five protection for 272 passing yards and three touchdowns whereas finishing 16 of his 21 passes. That efficiency helped the Packers snatch the consideration of being the youngest group to win a postseason sport for the reason that 1970 NFL/AFL merger (common age of 25 years and 214 days).

Inexperienced Bay may take an enormous leap on each side of the ball in 2024. Their offense broke NFL single-season information for probably the most catches (302), receiving yards (3,642) and receiving touchdowns (31) by first- or second-year gamers in 2023. Between Love and the opposite offensive children’ progress, the addition of 26-year-old, 2022 dashing champ Josh Jacobs, the perfect security in free company in Xavier McKinney and a extra aggressive defensive coordinator in Jeff Hafley, the Packers may problem for the NFC North crown and simply break 10 wins. 

• Over 9.5 (-145) | Underneath 9.5 (+125)

Edwards: Over 9.5: Houston went 10-7 final season. They might have arrived on the season early however, watching that group, it all the time felt like they have been by no means out of a sport. Groups which have that aura constantly win 10+ video games a yr. The franchise added expertise on each side of the ball, plus one other yr of continuity ought to serve them nicely. Jacksonville Over 8.5 if you would like a further decide. 

• Over 8.5 (+110) | Underneath 8.5 (-130)

• Over 8.5 (-120) | Underneath 8.5 (+100)

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs

• Over 11.5 (-110) | Underneath 11.5 (-110)

Magaraci: Underneath 11.5: Hear me out on this one. I do know it is loopy to EVER wager towards Patrick Mahomes, however I do not suppose the Chiefs can keep away from a Tremendous Bowl hangover for 2 straight seasons. And I am feeling a bit of loopy.

• Over 6.5 (-140) | Underneath 6.5 (+120)

Kernish: Underneath 6.5: The Raiders are already in a tricky spot being within the AFC West. Additionally they face the all the time powerful AFC North this season. Whereas Las Vegas has a proficient protection, its offense may battle to attain sufficient factors if the group falls behind.

• Over 9 (+115) | Underneath 9 (-135)

DeArdo: Underneath 9: Is somebody seeing one thing I am not? For no matter cause, the Chargers’ win whole is ready at 9 video games regardless of an unproven receiving corps, a brand new head coach who hasn’t coached within the NFL since 2014 and play in a division that features the two-time defending Tremendous Bowl champions (together with a Broncos group that I anticipate can be higher than most anticipate). Barring Justin Herbert enjoying at an historically-high stage, third place within the AFC West is the one factor I see L.A. competing for this yr.

• Over 8.5 (-170) | Underneath 8.5 (+145)

Brinson: Over 8.5: This quantity is a mistake and Vegas may comprehend it as a result of the juice has moved so considerably to the over (yow will discover higher than the -170 provided by Caesar’s so store round) although the precise quantity hasn’t creeped up from 8.5. The Rams dramatically improved their offensive line this offseason and bought sneaky additions in Colby Parkinson, Blake Corum and Jordan Whittingham onto the offense. Add in a wholesome Cooper Kupp, a second yr of Puka Nacua and MVP candidate Matthew Stafford and you’ve got an offense that ought to dominate all season lengthy. Aaron Donald’s loss is a giant one however I anticipate this unit to stay as a high half group regardless of the HOF strolling away. L.A. is a sleeper to win the division and is not being handled as such. 

Breech: Over 8.5: After making the playoffs final season, evidently the Rams are one way or the other being slept on heading into 2024. Sure, they misplaced Aaron Donald, however they nonetheless do have a loaded offense that ought to enable them to hold with anybody. Not solely do I believe the Rams will hit the over right here, however I do not suppose it is loopy to wager on them to win the division at +350.

Dajani: Over 8.5: The juice continues to get juicier, and for good cause. This quantity seems to be a lot too low. I do know the Rams misplaced Aaron Donald on the defensive entrance, however I am excited for Braden Fiske and Jared Verse. Plus, Kamren Curl is an underrated addition on the again finish. 

Offensively, the Rams had a “Huge 4” that we did not discuss sufficient. L.A. went 6-2 in video games with Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in 2023. That offense averaged a whopping 28.5 factors and 398.9 yards of whole offense per sport, whereas Stafford threw 18 touchdowns in comparison with three interceptions. L.A. averaged 6.8 yards per play with this “Huge 4” on the sphere! Think about if that group stays wholesome in 2024.

• Over 9.5 (-140) | Underneath 9.5 (+118)

Minnesota Vikings

• Over 7 (+115) | Underneath 7 (-135)

McCarriston: Underneath 7: I’m as soon as once more taking the underneath, as a result of it is exhausting for me to think about this Vikings group shocking me this yr. There was some hope with first spherical decide J.J. McCarthy, however he’s out with an damage. The theme of this offseason appears to be accidents for Minnesota and that is exhausting to beat. Tight finish T.J. Hockenson will stay on the PUP listing to begin the season and whereas they do have star vast receiver Justin Jefferson, the supporting forged is not convincing sufficient for me to purchase the over. 

• Over 4.5 (-115) | Underneath 4.5 (-105)

Sullivan: Underneath 4.5: The primary season of the post-Invoice Belichick period is not anticipated to be a fairly one. New England has a brutal schedule and presently has a dramatically low ceiling on offense resulting from their lack of depth at deal with. Whereas Drake Maye brings promise of a brighter future, it is unlikely he’ll reside as much as that potential in Yr 1. I’d even sprinkle a bit on New England to be the final winless group within the league. 

• Over 7.5 (-110) | Underneath 7.5 (-110)

• Over 6.5 (+120) | Underneath 6.5 (-140)

Benjamin: Underneath 6.5: The criticism of Daniel Jones might be bordering on extreme now, however how can anybody really feel even mildly assured on this offensive group, even with Malik Nabers out vast? The entrance seven ought to be bodily, however in an NFC East the place the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles have clear playoff-caliber setups and the Washington Commanders also needs to be higher, there’s not quite a lot of room for Brian Daboll’s squad to reclaim relevance.

Podell: Underneath 6.5: It is exhausting to consider within the New York Giants. Daniel Jones clearly is not the reply after a lackluster 2023 earlier than tearing his ACL. The additional away we get from a 2022 season during which Giants head coach Brian Daboll wanted to scheme up an offense the place Jones’ 6.4 air yards per go try ranked thirty second out of 33 certified quarterbacks to be able to maintain him on monitor, the extra it appears like an aberration. 

New York Jets All-Professional cornerback Sauce Gardner struggled to speak about Jones in a truthful and positive manner after dealing with him in a joint apply. The 2024 season is about to get ugly for the Giants, so it makes loads of sense to take the underneath right here. It is a group hoping to be within the operating to pick out Georgia’s Carson Beck or Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders within the 2025 NFL Draft.

New York Jets

• Over 10 (+100) | Underneath 10 (-120)

Philadelphia Eagles

• Over 10.5 (-155) | Underneath 10.5 (+132)

• Over 8.5 (+125) | Underneath 8.5 (-150)

Kernish: Over 8.5: Demise, taxes, profitable document for Mike Tomlin’s Steelers … I do not know the way he does it some seasons — and this is likely to be one other powerful yr to get it carried out primarily based on the schedule — however i am not betting towards Tomlin main his (improved?) Steelers to a different above-.500 document.

Magaraci: Over 8.5: Eventually the Steelers are going to have a dropping season underneath Mike Tomlin. I believed for positive it was going to occur final yr, however it did not. So I am rolling the cube yet one more time for plus cash.

McCarriston: Underneath 8.5: May this lastly be the yr head coach Mike Tomlin’s profitable document streak is shattered? For 17 seasons he has landed .500 or over, however I haven’t got a ton of religion in his group heading into 2024. They bought two competent quarterbacks for an excellent value, however one star would’ve been higher than these two “maybes.” And that is what Justin Fields and Russell Wilson are: Maybes. Positive, Wilson has a Tremendous Bowl ring and Fields has potential, however it would not look like a profitable method to me and I predict they will lose a bit of over half their video games. It would not assist that the Steelers have the third hardest energy of schedule (primarily based on opponents mixed 2023 win document).

San Francisco 49ers

• Over 11 (-135) | Underneath 11 (+115)

• Over 8 (-130) | Underneath 8 (+110)

Sullivan: Over 8: I believe the Seahawks are frisky this season. They might very nicely fiddle and make it to the playoffs within the first season underneath Mike Macdonald. His presence ought to assist bolster Seattle’s protection and rookie Byron Murphy II has regarded nice this summer time. On offense, I am anticipating a bounce-back yr for Geno Smith underneath new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Seattle’s schedule additionally is not too daunting, so I like them to get to a minimum of eight wins and be a risk to land a wild card spot. 

• Over 8.5 (+150) | Underneath 8.5 (-175)

• Over 6.5 (+115) | Underneath 6.5 (-135)

Dubin: Over 6.5: Tennessee went 6-11 final yr with the purpose differential of a 7-win group and added a bunch of expertise this offseason. The offensive line can’t be even near as dangerous because it was final yr and even when Will Levis is simply okay, they need to have the ability to hit this quantity — and also you get +118 on it. 

Dajani: Over 6.5: I am going to chew. Do not you suppose with the additions of L’Jarius Snead, Chidobe Awuzie, Ernest Jones, T’Vondre Sweat, Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd, JC Latham and Lloyd Cushenberry the Titans can enhance on their 2023 document by simply ONE win?

I do not suppose the Titans are a Tremendous Bowl contender, however there’s cause for optimism with Brian Callahan and Ran Carthon now operating issues in Tennessee. The offense goes to look very completely different, and also you should not sleep on this new protection led by Dennard Wilson both.

• Over 6.5 (-115) | Underneath 6.5 (-105)

Wilson: Over 6.5: This is not your Dan Snyder-owned Washington Soccer Crew. The Commanders, underneath proprietor Josh Harris, has made it abundantly clear that profitable is the first aim; and new GM Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn crushed their first draft, beginning with QB Jayden Daniels. However TE Ben Sinnott, CB Mike Sainristil, WR Luke McCaffrey and OT Brandon Coleman will all play massive roles in Yr 1 in Washington. Aside from Daniels, Coleman, who may begin the season at left deal with, will play a giant function in how shortly this O-line can gel. If if the solutions is sooner, slightly than later, I really like the over of 6.5 wins. I believe Daniels has an opportunity to be particular, the one query turns into how shortly can he make it occur.