2024 NFL futures: Saints win NFC South? Why the SportsLine Projection Mannequin loves New Orleans

The New Orleans Saints had been in limbo at quarterback for 2 years following Drew Brees’ retirement after the 2020 season, with 5 completely different gamers beginning underneath heart however none acting at a degree able to preserving the workforce atop the NFC South. New Orleans gained 4 consecutive division titles previous to Brees’ departure however was unable to take care of its stronghold as soon as he referred to as it a profession.

The Saints believed they solved their quarterback dilemma once they signed Derek Carr to a four-year, $150 million contract in March 2023. The previous Las Vegas Raiders signal-caller’s first 12 months in New Orleans obtained off to a rocky begin, as he battled accidents whereas the workforce misplaced seven of its first 12 video games. Nevertheless, Carr guided the workforce to 4 wins over its closing 5 contests, throwing 14 landing passes and solely two interceptions in that span.

Regardless of the robust end, the Saints failed to succeed in the postseason for the third 12 months in a row. They have not gone 4 consecutive seasons with no playoff look since a five-year drought from 2001-05, proper earlier than Brees’ arrival, and have not gone 4 straight campaigns with out an NFC South title since a five-year dry spell from 2012-16.

Based mostly on its win-total predictions, the SportsLine Projection Mannequin believes Carr will assist take New Orleans again to the highest of the division. The mannequin, which simulates each NFL recreation 10,000 occasions and is up effectively over $7,000 for $100 gamers on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, is selecting Over 7.5 wins (-120) for the Saints. It tasks them to report 9.8 victories and has them profitable the NFC South 39% of the time in its simulations — the best proportion among the many 4 division members.

“The win projection is insane, primarily based on the overall feeling of the general public and main media retailers, however it’s utterly cheap when you think about the workforce had a plus-75 level differential final season, which was seventh-best within the NFL,” says Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal information engineer and the person behind the mannequin. “As well as, the groups straight above (Kansas Metropolis) and under (Detroit) them [in point differential] have win-total strains of 11.5 and 10.5, respectively, and each different workforce within the high 10 in level differential final season has a minimum of an 8.5 line this 12 months.”

The mannequin tasks there’s a almost 80% likelihood New Orleans goes Over 7.5 wins. In line with Oh, there are a number of causes the mannequin is so excessive on the Saints this season. One is the workforce’s 2024 schedule.

“The counter argument shall be that their energy of schedule was weak final season, and that undoubtedly is true,” Oh says. “However primarily based on our mannequin energy rankings, they as soon as once more have the simplest schedule within the league.”

Another excuse is the idea that Carr will carry out significantly better in his second 12 months with New Orleans, particularly firstly of the season. The four-time Professional Bowler threw multiple landing go simply as soon as in his first seven video games final marketing campaign and was held with out one twice in that span.

Carr completed with 3,878 passing yards — greater than each Jalen Hurts and 2023 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson — and 25 landing tosses, the fourth-highest complete of his 10-year profession. He has a stable receiving corps at his disposal that’s led by Chris Olave, who has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark in every of his first two NFL seasons. In the meantime, Rashid Shaheed (719 yards), A.T. Perry (246) and tight finish Juwan Johnson (368) mixed for eight TD receptions over the ultimate 4 video games of the 12 months.

Most sportsbooks have Over 7.5 wins for New Orleans at -120 or increased, however Caesars has the most effective line at -110, so Oh suggests appearing on that whilst you can. “Utilizing the person consensus cash strains for each recreation, the oddsmakers‘ true projected win complete is almost 8.0 (7.94), so in the event that they had been betting, they’d take the Over,” he says.

New Orleans’ hated rival, the Atlanta Falcons, had been in the identical state of affairs because the Saints relating to their quarterback after buying and selling Matt Ryan to Indianapolis after the 2021 season. After giving Marcus Mariota (2022) and Desmond Ridder (2023) the possibility to win the beginning job, many consultants really feel strongly that the Falcons discovered Ryan’s substitute once they signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal this previous March.

SportsLine’s mannequin agrees, to an extent. Its projected win complete for Atlanta elevated from 7.0 to eight.7 upon Cousins’ arrival, and it rose to 9.3 following the acquisition of linebacker Matt Judon in mid-August. However the mannequin nonetheless likes Below 9.5 wins for the Falcons in 2024.

“Whereas our price for Below 9.5 shouldn’t be as important because it was earlier within the offseason, it nonetheless is excellent, contemplating you will get it at +120 at Caesars and plus cash throughout the board,” Oh says.

A part of the mannequin’s reasoning is how strongly it feels about New Orleans and reigning NFC South champion Tampa Bay each going Over 7.5 wins. Even Carolina’s complete line has surged from 4.5 to five.5, with juice as excessive as -130 on the Over.

The mannequin additionally tasks a statistical regression in factors allowed by Atlanta, although it employed the defensive-minded Raheem Morris as its coach. The Falcons had been 18th within the NFL in factors allowed final season, although they confronted plenty of offensively challenged groups, equivalent to Carolina (twice), the New York Jets, Tennessee, Washington and Arizona.

“We’re projecting much more factors allowed, given the actual fact the Falcons face Kansas Metropolis, Dallas, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Chargers this season,” Oh says. “They solely had 4 video games towards playoff groups final season, and one was versus Inexperienced Bay early within the 12 months earlier than it caught hearth, whereas two others had been towards division-rival Tampa Bay. This season, they play extra video games versus playoff groups (six) and higher-quality opponents.”

In the meantime, the 36-year-old Cousins is coming off a season with Minnesota that resulted in Week 8 on account of a torn Achilles tendon. He’s anticipated to be prepared for the 2024 opener, however although they signed him to that profitable contract, the Falcons should have had some doubts about his potential to totally get better on condition that they chose Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth total decide on this 12 months’s NFL Draft. Penix himself has a historical past of accidents, so taking the Below on Atlanta’s win complete looks like it might be a powerful play.

“We do advocate appearing instantly on Below 9.5 at +120 at Caesars,” Oh says. “The oddsmakers’ personal fashions, primarily based on consensus, solely undertaking 9.3 wins. In the event that they 100% used their fashions, they’d set the road at 9.5 and -120 on the Below, however due to the (optimistically excessive) pleasure in regards to the Cousins signing, they know they’ll cost -140 or extra on the Over as an alternative of the +110 they’d provide in any other case.”

Moreover, the mannequin has Atlanta profitable the NFL South solely 26.5% of the time, with even Tampa Bay (34.1%) being extra more likely to repeat.

In Week 1, the SportsLine Projection mannequin is looking for a detailed recreation between the Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, Sept. 8. That contest is not one of many 5 with A-grade picks primarily based on mannequin simulations for the season’s opening week, however the matchup between the Saints and Panthers is, with New Orleans at -208 on the cash line. You may find the other four top-tier Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.