2024 election results do not support claims that stolen elections occurred in 2020; voters' choices can change at the ballot box - Poynter

Conservatives are using President-elect Donald Trump’s 2024 electoral win as ammunition against allegations the 2020 elections were fraudulent. Dinesh D’Souza wrote around 8am ET Nov 6 on X that Kamala received 60 million votes while “does anyone really believe Biden got 80 million in 2020?.” Where have the 20 million Democratic voters gone? In truth, they never existed at all – finally ending this myth about Biden receiving 80 million votes! D’Souza created and released his widely discredited 2022 movie 2,000 Mules that detailed an unsubstantiated effort by “mules” to illegally deposit ballots into ballot drop boxes in an effort to swing the 2020 presidential election. Conservative commentator Benny Johnson made similar claims, calling the 2024 Democratic vote count difference “very sus,” short for suspicious. JR Majewski ran unsuccessfully for Congress twice between 2022 and 2024 in Ohio as an Republican; after both campaigns went unsuccessful he declared these results prove “2020 was stolen!” These claims are an updated take on a popular misconception: that the 2020 election was fraudulent – something PolitiFact has disproved numerous times (Screenshot/X). We attempted contacting D’Souza through his online store and Instagram account but received no reply prior to publishing this story. President Joe Biden won the 2020 election fairly and honestly; states certified his victory; Congress approved it, and Biden took office as expected on January 20, 2021. Election security officials — from Republicans and those working within Trump’s own administration alike — have indicated the 2020 election was secure and any fraud that did take place was isolated, meaning its effects did not alter results significantly. Since 2018, Trump and his allies have produced no evidence of widespread electoral fraud. Trump and his allies lost more than 60 lawsuits challenging the 2020 election results across the nation. A group of Republicans — including former federal judges — examined Trump and his allies’ claims of fraud or miscount and found none substantial enough to invalidate results.” His 2024 victory has not changed this reality. PoliticiFact spoke with experts who noted the possibility that millions of voters may shift between parties between elections. Kim Wyman, senior fellow with the Bipartisan Policy Center and independent voter, noted that elections tend to come down to this 40%. These middle voters decide which way candidates ultimately vote and can ultimately influence outcome, she suggested. Wyman served as Washington Secretary of State from 2013-2021 before taking up her current post as Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Senior Election Security Adviser – explaining that 2024 results can be explained through election return data. “Democrats did not suddenly lose 20 million voters,” she insisted, outlining potential causes behind 2024 election results. First, she noted the possibility that 20 million Republicans or independents who did not cast ballots or supported Biden instead chose Trump in 2024 presidential election. Second, Wyman pointed out the possibility that Democrats who wanted an alternative candidate such as Green Party candidate Jill Stein didn’t vote at all or cast blank ballots, potentially adding up to 20 million voters without their ballot. “[This number is a combination of] these outcomes,” Wyman suggested. Jordan Barth, former national and state Democratic Party staff, stated that even if final vote counts reveal 20 million more voters supported Biden than Harris during either election cycle (2020 versus 2024) that wouldn’t prove fraud in 2020’s vote tallies. “2016 saw some pretty significant shifts” with regard to electorates, Barth noted. Places that had supported Obama in 2008 and 2012 decided instead for Trump in 2016, yet returned in 2020 “to Biden.” Wyman noted election officials used similar processes and protocols during both elections – even though some states may have altered some laws or altered other aspects, security control measures remained consistent across states,” according to her statements. “Voters who show up four years later with different ballot choices needn’t indicate fraud or suppression; rather it could indicate they changed their minds about voting.” William Adler, associate director of Bipartisan Policy Center’s Election Project and expert witness on 2020 electoral matters, asserted that claims of stolen elections in 2020 overlook one fundamental element: no popular vote count has yet been recorded. Even though state margins in percentage terms might match with final election outcomes closely, claims about actual voter registration hold little weight. “As counting continues, the gap between Biden’s vote count and Harris’ is likely to narrow,” according to Dr. Bumgarner. This trend can already be observed. By 2 pm ET today the difference had narrowed significantly. Johnson, Majewski and D’Souza noted in their X posts on November 6 that Harris had received over 67 million votes with incomplete counts in several Democratic-heavy states such as California, Oregon and Washington. “Currently only 60% of votes have been counted in California,” Charles Stewart III of Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Election Data and Science Lab reported at approximately 12:30 PM ET to PolitiFact. D’Souza claimed the results of the 2024 election prove Biden’s claim of 80 million votes from 2020 as false and suggest that Biden actually only achieved 55 million in factual support in 2024. Republican state and federal officials declared the election was secure, while numerous judges dismissed Trump lawsuits alleging widespread fraud during 2020 election process. Experts said it wasn’t unusual or indicative of fraud for voters to switch allegiance from one party to the other or forgoing voting, from election to election, according to polling trends and poll results. They added that votes are still being counted and anticipated a decrease between Harris’ 2024 total and Biden’s 2020 total as more votes come into tally. PolitiFact senior correspondent Amy Sherman and PolitiFact researcher Caryn Baird contributed to this fact check report, originally published by PolitiFact as part of Poynter Institute – please view all sources for this fact check here.